GL/MW/OV December 2010 disco thread

[wxdudemike]

How bout DTW?

Goes way south, only 0.01" but at least your surface temps are completely below freezing

[The_Global_Warmer]

I would love for this to be the trend south into STL season, recently it's been the STL gets nailed 5-7 days out, holds on barely till day 4 then even Chicago gets a mix on the models. The GFS is further south but also pretty weak.

the nam is also looking like it would be coming in south as well.

Is the Euro strong with this in the plains or when it gets into the OV?

[cyclone77]

DVN mentions a pattern change is on the way, with a dry and cool pattern starting around the 10th.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE HIGHLY NEGATIVE AO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF

WEAKENING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ARE BEGINNING TO

COLLAPSE. THE EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK

AND GO FROM A THREE WAVE TO A FOUR WAVE PATTERN WITH THE PATTERN

CHANGE COMPLETE BY ROUGHLY DECEMBER 8TH. THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE

NORTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE

EASTERN CONUS. A NEW LONGWAVE TROF WILL DEVELOP AROUND 145-150W

WHICH PLACES THE CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET RESULT FOR THE

AREA WILL BE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH BELOW

NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

[michsnowfreak]

Goes way south, only 0.01" but at least your surface temps are completely below freezing

Are we talking about the next Sat/Sun Dec 4/5 event?

If so models REALLY are all over the place!

[BowMeHunter]

NW flow is fine as long as we're in the cooler air and not on the west side of a trough.. Gonna be a long winter for snow lovers me thinks down south in St Louis and - P'ducah.. Hell I'm worried about up here. I'm not in the Beau's snowfall contest but I would give beau about 3" and st louis 11"

[BowMeHunter]

Are we talking about the next Sat/Sun Dec 4/5 event?

If so models REALLY are all over the place!

They are and expect them to come back north again.. I just don't see next weekend being anything but a get off the trace snide for I-80 north.

[Chicago WX]

yuck, just looked at the 240 Euro.... Back to looking for that bridge to jump off of....

Wow, that is hideous.

[Chicago WX]

NW flow is fine as long as we're in the cooler air and not on the west side of a trough.. Gonna be a long winter for snow lovers me thinks down south in St Louis and - P'ducah.. Hell I'm worried about up here. I'm not in the Beau's snowfall contest but I would give beau about 3" and st louis 11"

Whatcha thinking for LAF? 15"?

[BowMeHunter]

Whatcha thinking for LAF? 15"?

thinking 15-20" on the positive side.

Probably a good chance my gut says we torch sometime when this pattern flips and we get flooded with cromartie air.. How long will that last? Will Dec be a total waste? W/E - I have no stock or faith in winter anymore. I'll drive north if I have to ice fish.

[Hoosier]

Whatcha thinking for LAF? 15"?

He was thinking a good winter for IND and LAF I think.

[BowMeHunter]

He was thinking a good winter for IND and LAF I think.

Was.. Pattern shows no signs of being worthwhile this winter yet.. All signs point to torch or eastern trough and dry as grandma.

[Chicago WX]

thinking 15-20"

Probably a good chance my gut says we torch sometime when this pattern flips and we get flooded with cromartie air.. How long will that last? Will Dec be a total waste? W/E - I have no stock or faith in winter anymore. I'll drive north if I have to ice fish.

Not a bad guess. I have LAF just a smidge below normal snowfall for the season. Honestly, my enthusiasm for winter here is pretty low. No matter though, I still think I-80 and north get hit pretty good at times this winter.

[snowstormcanuck]

lol. After we patiently wait for the block to break down, we're rewarded with a low heading for MN. The curse of the phantom Apps runner of Feb 09 still haunts me.

[michsnowfreak]

Calm down guys. We go through this every, and i mean EVERY, year. This includes the record snowy winter of 2007-08. Everyone is freaking out because of no big Nov snowstorms, and sure enough we do ok in the end. This will be my 9th winter visiting weather message boards, many of which were good winters in the midwest/lakes, and EVERY single one people were declaring winter would be horrible.

Also, no living/dying by each model run. They are worse than EVER this year, They always struggle in transition seasons, but this year is ridiculous.

[snowstormcanuck]

Calm down guys. We go through this every, and i mean EVERY, year. This includes the record snowy winter of 2007-08. Everyone is freaking out because of no big Nov snowstorms, and sure enough we do ok in the end. This will be my 9th winter visiting weather message boards, many of which were good winters in the midwest/lakes, and EVERY single one people were declaring winter would be horrible.

Also, no living/dying by each model run. They are worse than EVER this year, They always struggle in transition seasons, but this year is ridiculous.

All of this is true, but sometimes letting out a limited amount of frustration can be cathartic. I agree about declaring winter as a whole will horrible based on a bit of a slow start is ridiculous, but I haven't seen anybody do that.

[Chicago WX]

Calm down guys. We go through this every, and i mean EVERY, year. This includes the record snowy winter of 2007-08. Everyone is freaking out because of no big Nov snowstorms, and sure enough we do ok in the end. This will be my 9th winter visiting weather message boards, many of which were good winters in the midwest/lakes, and EVERY single one people were declaring winter would be horrible.

Also, no living/dying by each model run. They are worse than EVER this year, They always struggle in transition seasons, but this year is ridiculous.

I think there is some cause for concern for some folks...big November snow in their backyard or not. It's unlikely that the entire Midwest enjoys an above normal snowfall season. I've expressed my thoughts that I think I-80 on north will be the place to be this winter...don't see anything wrong with that at the moment. I don't think anyone is canceling winter though...no Ji's to be found in this forum.

[Dustin]

Also, no living/dying by each model run. They are worse than EVER this year, They always struggle in transition seasons, but this year is ridiculous.

I hear this same sentiment every year, but in reality all I have noticed a decrease in ability to objectively read and interpret modelling by those who complain.

[BowMeHunter]

I've Jihad this winter many times.. Just the feeling you get at the end of the day no matter how hard I try to stay positive.. I'm back to my green grass Christmas morning post back in summer and visions of the cromartie family frolicking in man made snow while we all pig out and get **** faced. Maybe I just need somebody stronger than everything is roses/models are wrong Stebo slapping me silly to back off the ledge... Calling in the heavy hitter, Harry.

I've been living and dieing every model run since summer and nothing still excites me for this upcoming winter.. It has nothing to do with recent models.

On the plus side meaningless stat... A- Rodgers is now the highest rated QB in NFL history

[Powerball]

What happened to this thread? One set of model runs and everyone's breaking down into a frothy mess again.

Once again I agree with michsnowfreak. Most of us we'll be alright.

[Chicago WX]

What happened to this thread? One set of model runs and everyone's breaking down into a frothy mess again.

Once again I agree with michsnowfreak. Most of us we'll be alright.

It's getting a little chippy, that's for sure. One run of the Euro with a mega-ridge coming east at 240 hours has some on tilt. Eh, wait til tomorrow, the sun will rise again.

[Hoosier]

It's getting a little chippy, that's for sure. One run of the Euro with a mega-ridge coming east at 240 hours has some on tilt. Eh, wait til tomorrow, the sun will rise again.

Well, the pattern is probably going to turn much warmer eventually, but I wouldn't bank on that particular 240 hour Euro.

[Chicago WX]

Well, the pattern is probably going to turn much warmer eventually, but I wouldn't bank on that particular 240 hour Euro.

Sure, but some would argue that the pattern has been (and will be) warm overall...so a turn to "more warm" is pissing into the wind...pardon my french.

[Hoosier]

Sure, but some would argue that the pattern has been (and will be) warm overall...so a turn to "more warm" is pissing into the wind...pardon my french.

Depends on what time scale you're looking at I guess. It's been warmer than average overall going back several months...there's no doubt about that. It's still my contention that the Nov 25-Dec 10 period averages out on the negative side here and probably much of the Midwest.

[Chicago WX]

Depends on what time scale you're looking at I guess. It's been warmer than average overall going back several months...there's no doubt about that. It's still my contention that the Nov 25-Dec 10 period averages out on the negative side here and probably much of the Midwest.

Oh I agree with you...just that some would have cause to say we've haven't entered (or won't) a "cold period". Of course cold or not, a little snow soon for some here would go a long ways I think.

[KokomoWX]

What happened to this thread? One set of model runs and everyone's breaking down into a frothy mess again.

Once again I agree with michsnowfreak. Most of us we'll be alright.

The problem is most will be alright but some will not. Many of us are concerned we will be part of Mother Nature's screw job.

[daddylonglegs]

So that AO goes rocketing northward, only to plunge again?

[cromartie]

I'll be the Ji of the midwest and cancel winter for ya.

[michsnowfreak]

The problem is most will be alright but some will not. Many of us are concerned we will be part of Mother Nature's screw job.

lol I think you hit the nail on the head. People in every region are worrying. if I could see into weenies heads in every region right now, it would look something like this.

Those in, say Chicago-Detroit have worries that we will go from storms cutting way NW to suppression. Leaving them in between with frustration and flurries.

Those in, say, KY, southern IN/OH are worrying that Chicago-Detroit will be getting all the good stuff while they struggle with p-type issues time and time again.

Those in the far north will worry that this November snow blitz will be it and they will shift into cold/dry while all the fun hits their south, having to deal with whatever snowcover is left and the occasional fluff from a clipper.

Those in the M.A. will worry that they now have another 5+ years of hell to go through after their 1 winter of bliss.

Those in New England will fear another repeat of watching the M.A. score the big storms again.

What it boils down to, is that a lot of folks fear that every region will be blessed except their own.

[Powerball]

lol I think you hit the nail on the head. People in every region are worrying. if I could see into weenies heads in every region right now, it would look something like this.

Those in, say Chicago-Detroit have worries that we will go from storms cutting way NW to suppression. Leaving them in between with frustration and flurries.

Those in, say, KY, southern IN/OH are worrying that Chicago-Detroit will be getting all the good stuff while they struggle with p-type issues time and time again.

Those in the far north will worry that this November snow blitz will be it and they will shift into cold/dry while all the fun hits their south, having to deal with whatever snowcover is left and the occasional fluff from a clipper.

Those in the M.A. will worry that they now have another 5+ years of hell to go through after their 1 winter of bliss.

Those in New England will fear another repeat of watching the M.A. score the big storms again.

What it boils down to, is that a lot of folks fear that every region will be blessed except their own.

Yes, it's all relative, and we must consider climo first. Relative to average, the Nothern Plains/Great Lakes/New England will always have great winters and the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic will always have crappy winters.

But fact of the matter is we're too early in the season to be worrying about who's getting screwed. Time and time again, we find out November's pattern is almost never the same as the winter pattern. For people to be worrying about screw jobs only after missing storms that weren't even climatologically favored to deliver in their backyards is simply faulty logic.

[Chicago Storm]

lol.