snowstormcanuck Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Ugh, the CMC ain't updating tonight. I don't want to go to bed with the GFS being the last thing on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 That N Atlantic block/Maritimes cutoff low is gumming up the works big time. It would be strange to see our first major snowfall come from this (eg. a system retrograding back to the west), just like the last snowfall of 2009-10 (Feb. 25-26). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Ugh, the CMC ain't updating tonight. I don't want to go to bed with the GFS being the last thing on my mind. Looks like you'll be staying up another hour to hour and a half until the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks like you'll be staying up another hour to hour and a half until the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 It would be strange to see our first major snowfall come from this (eg. a system retrograding back to the west), just like the last snowfall of 2009-10 (Feb. 25-26). Also that nuisance stuff in early Jan 2010. But I'm with Stebo, GFS is overplaying its hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks like you'll be staying up another hour to hour and a half until the Euro comes out. haha, that'll be the case in December when I'm free from work and'll have some legit storm threats to track. In this case, I'm giving the GGEM 7 minutes to come and then I'm zzzzzzzzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 00z GGEM has a low near Muskegon, MI at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 If the block in the Atlantic isnt as strong there is a potential of a strong system about 10 days out, energy dumping in from the northern stream and a low ejecting out of Texas, with cold air in place. Obviously its 10 days out so take it for what its worth, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The 00z runs continue to have a pretty cold look relative to average in the Plains/Midwest as we get toward day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 00z GGEM has a low near Muskegon, MI at 168 hours. where'd you get the GGEM tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 If the block in the Atlantic isnt as strong there is a potential of a strong system about 10 days out, energy dumping in from the northern stream and a low ejecting out of Texas, with cold air in place. Obviously its 10 days out so take it for what its worth, but something to watch. Looks interesting for down this way. The GFS has been taking it on a SE track though. Last night it had snow over Florida I believe, tonight.. Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 where'd you get the GGEM tonight? http://webpages.charter.net/wxalan/models/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks interesting for down this way. The GFS has been taking it on a SE track though. Last night it had snow over Florida I believe, tonight.. Georgia. Its laughable how these models are, first the ridge is too strong in the SE now, according to the GFS we will be saying what ridge... I would bet my house it won't be as south as its showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro is a pretty good hit here in S. WI .25-.5 QPF and it's still going. LOW is in N. Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 http://webpages.char...els/models.html Thanks, I didn't have the later panels, but the GGEM's aren't updating for me, just goes through hour 24, even with reloading a few dozen times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Its laughable how these models are, first the ridge is too strong in the SE now, according to the GFS we will be saying what ridge... I would bet my house it won't be as south as its showing now. The GGEM would be pretty suppressed too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The GGEM would be pretty suppressed too: Yes but do we believe that upper low off the coast of New England or the complete collapse of the SE ridge. This whole thing screams of not being real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 That's some serious suppression on the Euro as well. Congrats Louisiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro Ohio I-70 special next weekend? Can't tell...waiting for the Accuwx maps to update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro after the Clipper at day 7 is absolutely brutal in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro after the Clipper at day 7 is absolutely brutal in temps. I imagine a 1044 mb high coming south (if it verifies) is going to pack a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yes but do we believe that upper low off the coast of New England or the complete collapse of the SE ridge. This whole thing screams of not being real. Possibly, although it's sort of in line with my local screwjob outcome to all of this so I'm not totally discounting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Possibly, although it's sort of in line with my local screwjob outcome to all of this so I'm not totally discounting it. Shhhhhh happy snowy thoughts please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I always get screwed. Storms passing to my west, and now one that's in the neighborhood may pass to my south... in a La Nina year. *bah humbug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro after the Clipper at day 7 is absolutely brutal in temps. A met at IWX is buying into that: EXTREMELY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW AS ERN NOAM/WRN ATL BLOCK DVLPS FURTHER AND REFLECTED IN 7-10 DY NAO FCSTS WHICH GO TO STRONGLY NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 A met at IWX is buying into that: EXTREMELY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW AS ERN NOAM/WRN ATL BLOCK DVLPS FURTHER AND REFLECTED IN 7-10 DY NAO FCSTS WHICH GO TO STRONGLY NEGATIVE. Yeah I saw that, personally I'd wait to see how things play out a bit before going all in. The models only started to show the cold in the last day or so, and GFS isn't that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 *googles for the highest bridge in area* Yeah, I looked at the 12z GFS. :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 *googles for the highest bridge in area* Yeah, I looked at the 12z GFS. :-| Yeah talk about a brutal run, and totally unlike the GGEM/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 *googles for the highest bridge in area* Yeah, I looked at the 12z GFS. :-| The storm around ~300 looks interesting But at least it's fizzled the D6-9 storm. It'd be a tough pill to swallow if the MA/EC got a big blizzard before we did. Especially after the winter they had last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 12z is obviously frustrating, but the way it handled the Dec 4th system shows it is completely clueless beyond 5 days anyway. I guess that's the upside to poor model performance in the mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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