wxdudemike Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 im gonna put chances at 60% we have a lake cutter on the 12z euro.... ....it's just got that feel. Ok, good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro pretty warm for here initially, even with a good track...but does some damage post 168. ORD, S MI, N IN loving life between 168-192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro is ~990 mb in west central Ohio at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 according to other threads.... southern IL to W. OH to CLE then an attempt at reformation in central VA. fugly fugly fugly....warm tongue will be lapping like crazy up through these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro is ~990 mb in west central Ohio at 174 SE trend coming days FTW This seems plausible given the NAO weakening, but I can't believe we won't be able to get ONE storm to go more south with all of this cold air around. Typical OV screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 About .25 QPF here from the cutter. I'll take it, still 160+ hours out. The clipper also gives me .25 qpf for the 114 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SE trend coming days FTW This seems plausible given the NAO weakening, but I can't believe we won't be able to get ONE storm to go more south with all of this cold air around. Typical OV screwjob. if i were a betting man...it's that this thing corrects even further west.... Relatively speaking, it's not that strong of a low. Crank it down 5 or 10mb and its a powerhouse storm potential for wisconsin and iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What does Euro show for the ST. Louis area? Sounds like mostly north and east of here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 according to other threads.... southern IL to W. OH to CLE then an attempt at reformation in central VA. fugly fugly fugly....warm tongue will be lapping like crazy up through these parts I'm going to go the negative route on this one since being positive didn't work out last time. I'm calling this one a miss already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2267-dec-11-13-mwlakesov-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Can anyone post the images to the EURO or a link to it? It has yet to update on the ECMWF site, UNISYS and PSU. Sounds like a classic hit for Detroit judging from the descriptions (front end thumping and deformation snows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 if i were a betting man...it's that this thing corrects even further west.... Relatively speaking, it's not that strong of a low. Crank it down 5 or 10mb and its a powerhouse storm potential for wisconsin and iowa. Unless the Euro is kicking out the blocking a bit too fast....Then I could see it coming back SE a bit, but you may indeed be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What does Euro show for the ST. Louis area? Sounds like mostly north and east of here... This is interesting: From tombo: hr 150 has a sub 1004 low over north central ok.. hr 156 sub 1004 low over central ark...not looking good for the east trof is almost neutral tilt west of miss hr 162 sub 1000 mb low over southern ill hr 168 sub 996 low over southern indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Can anyone post the images to the EURO or a link to it? It has yet to update on the ECMWF site, UNISYS and PSU. Sounds like a classic hit for Detroit judging from the descriptions (front end thumping and deformation snows). This is updating: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Can anyone post the images to the EURO or a link to it? It has yet to update on ... PSU. The 168 hr page is not updating, but at the top of the page there is a new link to the 240 hr Euro that is updating fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Buckeye is getting warm nosed. This run has to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 This is updating: http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html Thanks. It's interesting how the temperature proiles are below freezing down to I-70 yet the 540m thickness line surges to Windsor, ON. Verbatim it would be an unusually good hit here, other than potentially some mixing of/short changeover to sleet. Oh well, we wont' know what happens with this system until the preceeding clipper plays itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Buckeye is getting warm nosed. This run has to be right yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Thanks. It's interesting how the temperature proiles are below freezing down to I-70 yet the 540m thickness line surges to Windsor, ON. Verbatim it would be an unusually good hit here, other than potentially some mixing of/short changeover to sleet. Oh well, we wont' know what happens with this system until the preceeding clipper plays itself out. Telltale sign of mixing, though we're 6 days out. It's gonna change again in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Buckeye is getting warm nosed. This run has to be right Actually he's getting tongued ---WTOD (warm tongue of death) CMH has a lock on it----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I just did my first almost spin-out of the year going to school, even though I was going like 15 mph Rear wheel drive and ice doesn't mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Actually he's getting tongued ---WTOD (warm tongue of death) CMH has a lock on it----- Ah yes, that was the correct term for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Can anyone post the images to the EURO or a link to it? It has yet to update on the ECMWF site, UNISYS and PSU. Sounds like a classic hit for Detroit judging from the descriptions (front end thumping and deformation snows). It is. Euro would bury us. But it is a week away. First things first, the clipper is only about 4 days away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Going to be a very cold night tonight. The RUC is running about 5 degrees too warm over areas with deep snow cover, and it already drops us to 5 shortly after midnight. That means we may be going below zero later tonight if clouds don't move in. Temps have been hovering around 15 all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Turtle- Don't be scared to use the gas. The brakes are not your friend in a slippery situation. I highly advise finding an empty ice covered parking lot and pushing the car to the limits BRRRRRRRRRRR.... I took a run this evening. Temps around 12F or so...stiff NW wind...ouchy. clouds/flurries moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I just did my first almost spin-out of the year going to school, even though I was going like 15 mph Rear wheel drive and ice doesn't mix. Full tank of gas and a couple of girls with the sophomore 20 in the back seat should help. Like daddy said go practice in a parking lot and get to know your pony... When I was your age my 84' IROC with a couple 80 pound sand tubes in back where they wont shift around worked wonders and was almost unstoppable in snow. Some say not to do that because when the rear breaks loose it will be significantly more difficult to recover. I never had that problem - but it CAN happen especially if you panic or are not familiar with the ways your pony can buck you off. Set of 4 Bridgestone Blizzax tires from the Parents Clause will treat you right also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Temps dropping like a rock in central and northern Illinois this evening. 6PM temps (*use with caution sites) Sterling*: 9º Morris*: 10º Rochelle*: 11º Pontiac: 12º Rantoul*: 12º Champaign: 13º Aurora: 13º Joliet*: 14º Rockford: 14º Moline: 16º Bloomington: 18º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Temps dropping like a rock in central and northern Illinois this evening. 6PM temps (*use with caution sites) Sterling*: 9º Morris*: 10º Rochelle*: 11º Pontiac: 12º Rantoul*: 12º Champaign: 13º Aurora: 13º Joliet*: 14º Rockford: 14º Moline: 16º Bloomington: 18º Quite a contrast between those temps and the areas just southwest out of the snowfield. 9 in Sterling, while 21 in Muscatine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Quite a contrast between those temps and the areas just southwest out of the snowfield. 9 in Sterling, while 21 in Muscatine. Yeah snow cover no doubt making a difference. 7PM temps at some of the notorious cold spots in northern IL...which of course all have snow on the ground. Sterling: 7º Rochelle: 9º Aurora: 9º Morris: 9º Kankakee: 10º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Temps dropping like a rock in central and northern Illinois this evening. 6PM temps (*use with caution sites) Sterling*: 9º Morris*: 10º Rochelle*: 11º Pontiac: 12º Rantoul*: 12º Champaign: 13º Aurora: 13º Joliet*: 14º Rockford: 14º Moline: 16º Bloomington: 18º Down to 17F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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