Stebo Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Im definitely loving the potential with the December 4th - 5th storm. Looks like the good east to west snow event for someone (Chicago to Detroit or Indianapolis to Columbus?). ?It's definitely the best rheat we've had this entire season. Which means lets wait til Nov 30th before we make a thread so we don't curse it Btw isnt it funny how systems find some way to avoid us, the system on euro decides to slide southeast after the 192h map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Which means lets wait til Nov 30th before we make a thread so we don't curse it How about December 3rd? But seriously, this one has a better chance of not cutting into the upper midwest unlike its 2 predecessors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 How about December 3rd? But seriously, this one has a better chance of not cutting into the upper midwest unlike its 2 predecessors. Yeah read my edit though, that is a worry of mine with the system off the NE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Which means lets wait til Nov 30th before we make a thread so we don't curse it Btw isnt it funny how systems find some way to avoid us, the system on euro decides to slide southeast after the 192h map... Did you see the 0z/26 EURO depiction of that storm? I don't have access to QPF maps but it looked like a hum dinger. 12z kinda sucky, but terrible run to run continuity so we'll see something different at 0z/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Well the good news is that I don't really have anything to support it. Just sorta wondering out loud. The pattern looks to be below average more often than not at least through the first 10 days of the month which is a good starting point. That kind of immense W Atlantic blocking that the GFS is showing I'd think would be more commensurate with a strong -NAO signal (ie ridging over Greenland blocking low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes/W Atlantic). Yet, CPC ensemble forecasts continue to have the NAO rising close to neutral over the next two weeks. So I'm going to guess the GFS is probably overdoing it. In fact, it's tough to forecast, but I think storms cutting to our N/W is going to remain more of a problem then suppression through the first full week of December, regardless of what the models are showing now. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Time to put a fork in it...GFS shows nothing but pure boredom...maybe avg to above...no precip... wow still no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Time to put a fork in it...GFS shows nothing but pure boredom...maybe avg to above...no precip... wow still no snow Is this the first Midwest winter cancel call? Or at least Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Time to put a fork in it...GFS shows nothing but pure boredom...maybe avg to above...no precip... wow still no snow Are you being serious? The pattern looks average to below average to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Is this the first Midwest winter cancel call? Or at least Dec? Ji of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 No winter cancel..but it looks very quiet around here.. If we can keep sunshine and stay snow free...temps shouldn't stay too far below normal....if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I've got 25F and thats under full sunshine and no snow cover... If we can keep sunshine and stay snow free...temps shouldn't stay too far below normal....if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 No winter cancel..but it looks very quiet around here.. If we can keep sunshine and stay snow free...temps shouldn't stay too far below normal....if at all. This was also from CPC hazard outlook today. MODEL AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER LOW-PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS REMARKABLY HIGH FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR IDENTIFYING SPECIFIC HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS ARE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES DURING DECEMBER 3-4 AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 lulz, that's quite the norlun event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Saukville told me winter is over after Dec 15th... He's already corrupting my brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 For anyone else who didn't know (like me until just now), the Euro on PSU e-WALL site now goes out to 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 00z GFS has a widespread major winter storm. 15 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 00z GFS has a widespread major winter storm. 15 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 GFS has quite the cold shot into the northern tier the week after next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Euro offering some love with both a system system at 6-7 and 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 06z GFS is a pile -.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Definitely a shift north on both the GFS and the Euro on the Dec 4th system. GEM still holds the southern course though. The models have been amazingly similar with each other with this thing so far as far as timing with the progression of it. Even the storm tracks are relatively similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 00z GFS has a widespread major winter storm. 15 days from now. Now turning to other news......The sun came up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Well if the GFS is going to be wrong to start the month it surely is going to be consistently wrong with its projections. 12z run has a believable pattern for early month, oh and I believe I'm winning the lotto tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 Well if the GFS is going to be wrong to start the month it surely is going to be consistently wrong with its projections. 12z run has a believable pattern for early month, oh and I believe I'm winning the lotto tonight too. Kind of scary how it's been showing it for about 3 straight days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 WOW!!! I saw the 12z GFS and . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Well if the GFS is going to be wrong to start the month it surely is going to be consistently wrong with its projections. 12z run has a believable pattern for early month, oh and I believe I'm winning the lotto tonight too. If it is correct we would be looking at our first shovelable snowfall 1 week from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Well if the GFS is going to be wrong to start the month it surely is going to be consistently wrong with its projections. 12z run has a believable pattern for early month, oh and I believe I'm winning the lotto tonight too. Euro looks like the GFS now I believe. Haven't really looked at it that closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 That N Atlantic block/Maritimes cutoff low is gumming up the works big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro looks like the GFS now I believe. Haven't really looked at it that closely. Euro looks a bit like the GFS but unlike the GFS things wont stall out over the Western Atlantic. Things at least look to move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The latest GFS says congrats International Falls with the Dec 4th system lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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