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GL/MW/OV December 2010 disco thread

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Central/Western States

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
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Posted

WFO Downsview is forecasting up to 2 feet of lake effect for those in the traditional snow belt... sadly there is about a 20km bubble around me where the snowsqualls die... but hoping at least one or two squalls will make it this far. 

A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MARITIMES AND A LARGE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PRAIRIES WILL CREATE THE INGREDIENTS FOR
THE FIRST REAL WINTERLIKE WEATHER ACROSS MANY PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ONTARIO.  WORDS SUCH AS WIND CHILL AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS MANY
PEOPLE'S LIPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS OLD MAN WINTER STRIVES TO
FLUSH OUT THE REMNANTS OF AUTUMN.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 KM/H WITH THE ODD GUST TO 60 WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.
THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MINUS 2 IN MANY AREAS WITH CHILL
VALUES HOVERING AROUND MINUS 10.  THESE WINDS WILL DELIVER MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOW SQUALLS IN SOME OF THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS
AS WELL.  REGIONS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH COLLINGWOOD AND
GRAND BEND WILL BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF SIZEABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE COMING DAYS.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 60 CM ARE
QUITE LIKELY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.  SNOW SQUALL WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS AND WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS AS
REQUIRED.

THE GREATER TORONTO AREA WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF
ITS FIRST ENDURING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.  THE GEORGIAN BAY SNOW
SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH DOWN TO THE TORONTO REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OSCILLATE ACROSS THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH NO SERIOUS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE WANDERING
NATURE OF THE SNOW BAND, SEVERAL CENTIMETRES ARE LIKELY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALONG WITH LOCAL BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

Yeah, this 320-340 type flow is murder for K-W. Keeps you guys in a screwzone. Toronto's probably going to pick up more LES than you guys. Don't hear me say that often.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

The cold bias is supposed to be gone. :guitar:

Man I wish...

I mean, they did reduce it by about 50%, which makes it considerably better before truncation, but it's still noticable.

Usual model biases aside (GFS a bit too far south due to being too cold prior to the storm and the GGEM likely too far north due to its progressive and cyclogenesis-happy nature), there's pretty good agreement now on this being a "super" clipper, or one that deepens or maintains itself in the low levels as it heads east.

I saw your question Buckeye, and I honestly don't remember. I think it had something to do with the model parametrization causing it be too aggressive in situations like that.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Any idea if there is any snow in the Frankenmuth area? I leave for a short 3 day vacation up there next Monday-Wednesday. Every time I've ever gone there has been snow on the ground, so I can't imagine going with a bare ground :(

18748_707602442078_20715817_41362782_7371505_n.jpg

Im guessing there may be a trace on the ground. Do you mean Mon-Wed as in tomorrow Monday or as in 8 days from now?

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illinois

illinois

Posted
Posted

Sounds like exciting times ahead...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

850 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 09 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 12 2010

GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST THRU NEXT FRIDAY DAY 5. MAJOR DIFFERENCES

AND CONTINUITY CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW LATER DAY 5 FRIDAY AND CARRY

THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEGINNING DIFFERENCE IS

THE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING PAC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WEST

COAST IN THE LA NINA FLOW REGIME. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06Z

GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF BUILD MORE EPAC RIDGING NWD ALONG THE WEST

COAST DAY6 SAT ALLOWING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU

THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY

00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID

LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING

SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH

VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH

CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT

STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO

D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE

DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR

WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION

AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY

AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED

UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN

RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Sounds like exciting times ahead...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

850 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 09 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 12 2010

GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST THRU NEXT FRIDAY DAY 5. MAJOR DIFFERENCES

AND CONTINUITY CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW LATER DAY 5 FRIDAY AND CARRY

THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEGINNING DIFFERENCE IS

THE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING PAC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WEST

COAST IN THE LA NINA FLOW REGIME. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06Z

GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF BUILD MORE EPAC RIDGING NWD ALONG THE WEST

COAST DAY6 SAT ALLOWING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU

THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY

00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID

LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING

SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH

VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH

CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT

STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO

D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE

DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR

WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION

AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY

AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED

UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN

RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF.

Trust me that caught my eye, the better part about this time around, later in the year and cold air should already be in place.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

The 1950 storm verbatum only dropped 6.3" at Detroit. Of course, if mother nature sneezed and the track shifted just a hair we wouldve been buried.

BTW light snow falling again. It has been snowing to some extent practically nonstop all of December. Yet, 5 days in all we have to show for it is 0.3" imby and 0.4" at DTW

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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12z GFS keeps the next clipper north (MN, WI, MI, etc.)...which agrees with most of the guidance. And then the 7-8 day system gets sheared apart or maybe gets going too late...but is still there in some form. I guess that's the important part at this range.

I hate rooting against the snow chance that's closer in time, but a weaker clipper system might keep the E coast ridge intact/not produce as much confluence across the lakes which would be conducive for a phase with the D7-8 storm. In any event, the 12z GFS just missed turning that storm into something bigger.

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

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Posted

I hate rooting against the snow chance that's closer in time, but a weaker clipper system might keep the E coast ridge intact/not produce as much confluence across the lakes to promote a phase for the D7-8 storm. In any event, the 12z GFS just missed turning that storm into something bigger.

Snowstorm canuck do you think me here in mississauga will get snow today and tonight from snowqualls say 5cm? Also that clipper for the end of the week may produce 5-15cm?

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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Snowstorm canuck do you think me here in mississauga will get snow today and tonight from snowqualls say 5cm? Also that clipper for the end of the week may produce 5-15cm?

You'll get a little something tonight/tomorrow morning but the high resolution models are really keying in on the east side of town (Scarborough/Markham/Pickering) for maybe something a little bigger. I'd say locally 5cm is possible for us, but with these squalls it'll be hit or miss. You might luckout or you might get screwed.

Won't venture a guess to any amounts for the late week clipper. There should be at least modest accumulations but we don't want the storm track to trend any further north.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Even though we picked up an additional 0.3" last night, our snow depth has settled more. Down to 7.5" now. Very dense snowpack though now.

Temps are actually falling here. When I woke up an hour ago it was 17, and now it's down to 15.

That's what I loved about your driveway picture the snow looked so dense and its not going anywhere too fast now that its done its settling bit overnight.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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As much as I want that storm next week to turn into something big, Id settle for locking in the 12z GFS now. Gives DTW 0.28" qpf with the Thu-Fri clipper, a 1-day break, then 0.29" next Sunday. Either way, one thing, after another few days of lake effect traces and dustings, looks like we finally may be getting some synoptic snow!

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Posted

Hmm am I missing something? Isnt that just the departing clipper? Thats too soon for the storm.

No it's the right timeframe (144+) that all the other models have "something". The clipper is long gone at that point. Of course it's still somewhat in fantasy range...

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