daddylonglegs Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yeah...the GFS is very cold in the extended... Lets just get it in here and get it over with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Unfortunately, the GFS's cold bias will likely wreak havoc on track until it gets inside 120 hours, when the preceding cold air outbreak is tempered back to reality. The cold bias is supposed to be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Borrowed from the Mid Atlantic thread for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looking from that map in the previous post., there could be plenty of snow on the ground for western Ohio :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 After a 6hr break from the snow, it's back. Snowing enough to dust the cleared sidewalk. Gonna be very cold the next several days with this deep snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Borrowed from the Mid Atlantic thread for next weekend... Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Borrowed from the Mid Atlantic thread for next weekend... I would be the happiest person ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Getting some LES leftovers here right now. I'm feeling a little post storm blues at the moment. Like I need another storm to track that's 3 day away. It's a sickness I tell ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Getting some LES leftovers here right now. I'm feeling a little post storm blues at the moment. Like I need another storm to track that's 3 day away. It's a sickness I tell ya. That it is, a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Assuming we see some flurries/snow showers after midnight, which is a good bet, it'll mark 5 out of the last 6 days that we've had snow falling here. Not a bad start to met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'd take it. First time I've seen a chance of snow inside 144hrs this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 looks like 0Z gfs is bringing down the day 8 system as a clipper... at least through 174 might get some southern stream moisture in at 180, but not sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 looks like 0Z gfs is bringing down the day 8 system as a clipper... at least through 174 might get some southern stream moisture in at 180, but not sure... 180 should be good I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 180 should be good I think... yeah looks pretty good... altough a transfer happens between 180 and 192 that turns it into more of a coastal... still a big big key to have this show up in 3 runs in a row, 60 hour QPF from 192: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_192m.gif All in the form of snow too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 yeah looks pretty good... altough a transfer happens between 180 and 192 that turns it into more of a coastal... still a big big key to have this show up in 3 runs in a row, 60 hour QPF from 192: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_192m.gif All in the form of snow too... And we know how those quick transfers work out for the GFS. Regardless, hopefully something that can get inside 6 days (on the majority of the models) and still be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And we know how those quick transfers work out for the GFS. Regardless, hopefully something that can get inside 6 days (on the majority of the models) and still be on the table. yeah the fact that something is showing up and continuing to show up now on 3 if not 4 runs in a row I'm starting to like the chances of a system of some sort developing. Correct me if I'm wrong but the GFS is the only one showing that quick transfer (of course it hits right at the change from full res to low res too, which lowers IMO the likelyhood of a super quick transfer like that. It'll be interesting on the 12z in the morning if it shows that. none the less, looks like right now I'd feel safe saying at least a 20% chance of snow sometime in the Friday-Monday period around next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Unfortunately, the GFS's cold bias will likely wreak havoc on track until it gets inside 120 hours, when the preceding cold air outbreak is tempered back to reality. as a met maybe you can answer this question...observation i've always had regarding the gfs longrange. Why does it always show snow far south of clipper tracks in the extended? It seems like it does this all the time, for instance showing low pressure in the central lakes with snow flying as far south a southern OH. This would rarely if ever happen in reality. A track like that would be rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 00z GFS looks sweet. Wish i could bottle it up and save it til then lol. Flurries all evening here, just a T of course, has snowed every day in December so far. Lets see how far we can go before we have a flake-less day this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Um, Lock it in? I'll pass on being in the donut hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'll pass on being in the donut hole Looks like you guys are up next at the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 00z GFS looks sweet. Wish i could bottle it up and save it til then lol. Flurries all evening here, just a T of course, has snowed every day in December so far. Lets see how far we can go before we have a flake-less day this month. Any idea if there is any snow in the Frankenmuth area? I leave for a short 3 day vacation up there next Monday-Wednesday. Every time I've ever gone there has been snow on the ground, so I can't imagine going with a bare ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Friday, December 3rd: Hi: 31F Lo: 17F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 5MPH Rainfall: 0.01" Snowfall: 0.1" Saturday, December 4th: Hi: 34F Lo: 24F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 12MPH Rainfall: 0.36" Snowfall: 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Probably gonna pick up another half inch or so tonight. Steady light snow for hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Any idea if there is any snow in the Frankenmuth area? I leave for a short 3 day vacation up there next Monday-Wednesday. Every time I've ever gone there has been snow on the ground, so I can't imagine going with a bare ground I don't believe there is any snow there. Michigan has not really gotten any synoptic snow yet this winter. Almost all of it has been from Lake effect snow...so chances are pretty slim for that area. There may be a dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro keeps keeps transitioning this clipper in to a cutter right over me or even north this run.. that's not good and the gfs seems to be starting to catch on to that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Tombo said I was like right on the freezing line throughout this run (1000 mb low to Green Bay) gave about .25 qpf as well. GFS has the temp at 25-26 throughout the storm while giving the same amount of qpf as well. Who knows though, still 120+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Tombo said I was like right on the freezing line throughout this run (1000 mb low to Green Bay) gave about .25 qpf as well. GFS has the temp at 25-26 throughout the storm while giving the same amount of qpf as well. Who knows though, still 120+ hours out. 850's stay around or below -4C for the duration of the event for DLH. Not sure about surface temps though. Not that it matters much at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Wow at 180... I'd need a TO if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What happend at hour 180? Not that it matters, jc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Any idea if there is any snow in the Frankenmuth area? I leave for a short 3 day vacation up there next Monday-Wednesday. Every time I've ever gone there has been snow on the ground, so I can't imagine going with a bare ground I LOVE FRANKENMUTH .. WHen ever I go up there, i feel so home LOL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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