Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Hoosier... Any thoughts of chasing in the back of your mind? Reading an AFD this afternoon there was talk of 18"+ possible. Possibly. We'll see what happens here. If there's 4 or 5" I might be satisfied enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Which AFD? http://kamala.cod.ed...xus63.KIWX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 http://kamala.cod.ed...xus63.KIWX.html Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Who's going to start a thread for the December 10thish storm? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 18z GFS: 0.22 QPF for the THU storm. Euro had more then that. After that, it looks COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Talked to DTX's Bill Deedler, a great met/climate historian, today, and he thinks this winter is following his analogs/outlook VERY closely in the early stages. A cold and somewhat dry Dec is not uncommon. Hint, hint...a slow start in these very early stages of the seasons means nothing and his call for near to above normal snowfall is still on track :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 While we have some snow showers expected off and on through the week, Im really starting to get interested in the clipper and lake snow for Thurs-Sat. 5-6 days out is a dangerous time to look for ANY specifics, but the fact that it is present and fairly consistent on ALL models, as well as a breaking down of the block, and that is all you can ask for at this point. Has certainly gotten my attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 While we have some snow showers expected off and on through the week, Im really starting to get interested in the clipper and lake snow for Thurs-Sat. 5-6 days out is a dangerous time to look for ANY specifics, but the fact that it is present and fairly consistent on ALL models, as well as a breaking down of the block, and that is all you can ask for at this point. Has certainly gotten my attention! Yeah I'm interested in it too. Probably won't have as much moisture if it tracks that far north, but it looks like a fairly active storm period shapes up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 While we have some snow showers expected off and on through the week, Im really starting to get interested in the clipper and lake snow for Thurs-Sat. 5-6 days out is a dangerous time to look for ANY specifics, but the fact that it is present and fairly consistent on ALL models, as well as a breaking down of the block, and that is all you can ask for at this point. Has certainly gotten my attention! Wow, Josh looking at the models beyond D3? You can tell things are getting desperate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Wow, Josh looking at the models beyond D3? You can tell things are getting desperate here. No you know its desperate when JMA/DGEX/LOLGAPS or 18z GFS emsembles are mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 No you know its desperate when JMA/DGEX/LOLGAPS or 18z GFS emsembles are mentioned. I'm sure I and a few others will pull those models out of our hats once better models find some way to screw with that clipper next week. Although, I've heard rumors that the JMA isn't as bad as it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I'm sure I and a few others will pull those models out of our hats once better models find some way to screw with that clipper next week. Although, I've heard rumors that the JMA isn't as bad as it used to be. What only 2 fantasy storms per run instead of 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 looks like the snow in the midwest won't be going anywhere soon. Winter FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Wow, Josh looking at the models beyond D3? You can tell things are getting desperate here. I always LOOK at the models all the way to day 16 in the snow season (rarely look at them outside snow season). I look out for trends, model consistencies. Like, when a model is consistent in keeping a storm, even though it will wildly vary in placement each run, I feel it is something to watch, versus times when they show a massive storm one run then nothing the next, its nothing to see here. For instance todays clipper has been in some form on the models for like 10 days. And I have been casually watching it. What I DONT do is live/die with each model run as so many on here do. Its not good for the heart lol. You also have to look at the big picture, the calendar, and climo. I will also point out, once again, that 3-4 days ago people who now have a nice snowcover acted as if there was absolutely no winter weather on the horizon thru mid-December. I sound like a broken record, but everyone needs to relax & ditch the short term memory. Its coming. I dont know if this will ease your minds or not, but fwiw there is no snow on the ground in parts of the U.P., northern WI, and not to mention VT, NH, and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 What only 2 fantasy storms per run instead of 3? Only storm it nailed was the Dec. 18th storm... just more of a lucky guess though. It's better then the NOGAPS and DGEX but that's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Hmm...a little too much model consistency for my liking actually. Its quite scary. 12z models looking good for Fridays clipper, of the big 3, GEM and EURO show more qpf than GFS, but we all know how useful qpf is at 2+ days out. Now, all the models are beefing up qpf in eastern MI and OH on Monday with this lake effect or whatever. Will be interesting to see what happens. If we can eek out more than 0.1" every 10 hours as we saw on Dec 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 a few images that jumped out at me on the 12z GFS next nice clipper?? thats some serious cold air! also have that small clipper it looks like late next week. euro has it alittle stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The Day 8 storm is most likely real. All models have a wave during that time, and the -NAO block will be breaking down. A rapid rise from -NAO to +NAO is a very typical (and expected) time to get a storm. We won't know the real nature of it (super clipper, southern/mid stream wave) for a few days, but I do think the threat in that range is very real. Having the PV over or near the Hudson Bay is also a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 lol, 12z NAM BUFKIT is insane for Toronto. Takes a LES band off Georgian Bay and rams it right into the city late tomorrow night into Monday. 4-6" on about .26" QPF. The setup looks good for inland penetration, but those type of numbers would be unprecedented this far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The Day 8 storm is most likely real. All models have a wave during that time, and the -NAO block will be breaking down. A rapid rise from -NAO to +NAO is a very typical (and expected) time to get a storm. We won't know the real nature of it (super clipper, southern/mid stream wave) for a few days, but I do think the threat in that range is very real. Having the PV over or near the Hudson Bay is also a good thing. I agree, it IMO is our first real chance of a storm with some southern moisture involved in it. Now the question is will the southern stream give some moisture... IMO I'm leaning towards yes, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Not to give a forecast, but if there is a storm next weekend, here is where I would possibly expect snow to MAYBE develop, DO NOT TAKE THIS AS FACT OR AS A FORECAST, JUST TO GET ITEMS ON THE TABLE!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yup...GFS isn't very heavy on the precip, but still a few inches of snow most likely for here... AO wants to head down down down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Euro gives nearly .5 QPF here on the Thur. system. GEM is wetter then the GFS also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The Day 8 storm is most likely real. All models have a wave during that time, and the -NAO block will be breaking down. A rapid rise from -NAO to +NAO is a very typical (and expected) time to get a storm. We won't know the real nature of it (super clipper, southern/mid stream wave) for a few days, but I do think the threat in that range is very real. Having the PV over or near the Hudson Bay is also a good thing. I was looking at the NAO as well earlier and ever since I have started forecasting I can remember storms when we go from negative to positive. It will def be something to watch as we get into next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Gee if only this was not on an 18z run, or 180 hours out.... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p48_192m.gif one thing is that the model runs have continued to show something, so I think should we see this continue, it MAY become Thread worthy come Tuesday or Wed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Um, Lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 GFS Ensembles continue to be stronger/wetter then the OP and are in better agreement with the ECMWF... QPF ranges from .25-.5" for a larger area. The D8 storm also looks fairly interesting... especially if you move that fantasy land BS storm the GFS has west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Um, Lock it in? I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Um, Lock it in? Sigh, so beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Unfortunately, the GFS's cold bias will likely wreak havoc on track until it gets inside 120 hours, when the preceding cold air outbreak is tempered back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.