Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 When is it our turn for even a fantasy storm............. Wisconsin has a better chance of going to the NC game then for us to get a fantasy storm from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 But really, this is where we want it past 7 days right, crushing freakin' Louisiana? It's where I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 But really, this is where we want it past 7 days right, crushing freakin' Louisiana? Guess we'll just have to share for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 0z GGEM. Thanks Tim! I woke up this morning needing something to smile about. Looks like the GGEM pushes the block just enough to the east to allow a phase with a southern s/w and a northern s/w dropping down the backside of the cutoff low. Beauty thing is that just enough blocking remains so this thing doesn't cut west/flood us with warmth. GGEM's on its own but with Nina climo I'm going to say it's solution is the frontrunner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Thanks Tim! I woke up this morning needing something to smile about. Looks like the GGEM pushes the block just enough to the east to allow a phase with a southern s/w and a northern s/w dropping down the backside of the cutoff low. Beauty thing is that just enough blocking remains so this thing doesn't cut west/flood us with warmth. GGEM's on its own but with Nina climo I'm going to say it's solution is the frontrunner The GGEM had a good run last year and like you said I'm having a hard time buying 120+ hr solutions which are super suppressed and cold in early December during a Nina. And yes black and white eye burners or not, those GGEM maps are nice, really perfect for me. I see LOT dropping hints at LE potential. ONE REASON FOR A RATHER COMPLICATED EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE STRENGTHOF THE DOWNSTREAM HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ALL HAVE SOME HINTS THAT THE FRI SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTH AND REMAIN NEAR CENTRAL QUEBEC FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND...SENDING A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE TO GET CRANKING FOR THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 :snowman::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GGEM had a good run last year and like you said I'm having a hard time buying 120+ hr solutions which are super suppressed and cold in early December during a Nina. And yes black and white eye burners or not, those GGEM maps are nice, really perfect for me. I see LOT dropping hints at LE potential. The 12z GFS has a window where the IL shore could get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 12z GFS has a window where the IL shore could get in on it. From what i hear 12z GFS was a great run Frankly i'm just glad to have Sept/Oct/Nov about over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Back to fantasy land programming, but the 12z GGEM has abandoned the storm of the winter for ORD, YYZ, LAF, etc...in favor of the Mid-Atlantic. Adjust your doom and gloom meters accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GGEM had a good run last year and like you said I'm having a hard time buying 120+ hr solutions which are super suppressed and cold in early December during a Nina. And yes black and white eye burners or not, those GGEM maps are nice, really perfect for me. I see LOT dropping hints at LE potential. Early December? Check. La Nina? Check. Super supressed? you betchya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Back to fantasy land programming, but the 12z GGEM has abandoned the storm of the winter for ORD, YYZ, LAF, etc...in favor of the Mid-Atlantic. Adjust your doom and gloom meters accordingly. Which event are you talking about...the first one or second one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Back to fantasy land programming, but the 12z GGEM has abandoned the storm of the winter for ORD, YYZ, LAF, etc...in favor of the Mid-Atlantic. Adjust your doom and gloom meters accordingly. H5 setup isn't bad. Just everything starts to come together too far east. Wouldn't take a lot to get back to the 0z solution, but we need some of the other more reliable models *cough* EURO *cough* to show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Which event are you talking about...the first one or second one? The second, 7-9 day range. And I was joking about the "doom and gloom" thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The second, 7-9 day range. And I was joking about the "doom and gloom" thing. I keep forgetting that the 12z GGEM is available to 180 hours on PSU, so I wondering how you knew about the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 H5 setup isn't bad. Just everything starts to come together too far east. Wouldn't take a lot to get back to the 0z solution, but we need some of the other more reliable models *cough* EURO *cough* to show something similar. I'll be a lot more interested in the Euro inside 120 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 H5 setup isn't bad. Just everything starts to come together too far east. Wouldn't take a lot to get back to the 0z solution, but we need some of the other more reliable models *cough* EURO *cough* to show something similar. It isn't that far off from its 0z solution, true. Two runs in a row with something in the neighborhood isn't bad...something to keep an eye on for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It isn't that far off from its 0z solution, true. Two runs in a row with something in the neighborhood isn't bad...something to keep an eye on for the future. Indeed, though I have my plans booked for the Mackinaw Bridge, just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'll be a lot more interested in the Euro inside 120 hrs or so. I'd be a lot more interested in any model inside 120 hours. But unfortunately when something catches the eye, regardless of the time, I gotsta start analyzin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The fantasy land GFS holds off any torch through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 4 years ago today, this puppy was starting to get going... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=30&interval=5&year=2006&month=11&day=30&hour=13&minute=0 A bitter pill for LAF in the end, with how it looked on the models 2 days prior, but a good storm for those farther west and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 GFS is showing some LES potential on my side on this run but still pretty far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 4 years ago today, this puppy was starting to get going... http://mesonet.agron...our=13&minute=0 A bitter pill for LAF in the end, with how it looked on the models 2 days prior, but a good storm for those farther west and northwest. Bad start to a terrible month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 4 years ago today, this puppy was starting to get going... http://mesonet.agron...our=13&minute=0 A bitter pill for LAF in the end, with how it looked on the models 2 days prior, but a good storm for those farther west and northwest. One of my favorite storms that I can remember following...was supposed to go southeast of me but the heaviest SN axis kept shifting northwest and ending up being to my west by a few counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Bad start to a terrible month. It wasn't good, that's for sure. Really, winter didn't show up here until mid to late January that season...delayed but not to be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 It wasn't good, that's for sure. Really, winter didn't show up here until mid to late January that season...delayed but not to be denied. Yeah, I think I was sitting at 0.9" for the season going into the second week of January. Then after that, everything fell into place. Cautionary tale about getting too worked up about a bad start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 DT said mild for us during christmas week when I asked him last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 DT said mild for us during christmas week when I asked him last night. long range forecasting is super boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah, I think I was sitting at 0.9" for the season going into the second week of January. Then after that, everything fell into place. Cautionary tale about getting too worked up about a bad start to winter. Exactly. Obviously it doesn't always work out that way, but you have to keep a little faith sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 long range forecasting is super boring. Model watching in winter has been super boring since 08/09 winter.. GFS can't even throw out fantasy storms like cutler interceptions anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 GFS is showing some LES potential on my side on this run but still pretty far out. VERY early look at the GFS would suggest some favorable ingredients could come together...adequate inversion heights, good delta T, long fetch, little shear, favorable moisture at least initially. A lake response is virtually guaranteed I think...mainly just a question of how good it ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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