snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Thought I'd get my inaugural thread here at American out of the way. I'm going to say 8-9" IMBY for Dec. Reasoning: none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I'm going to go with 14.6 for IMBY it just might take a little while to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 I'm going to go with 14.6 for IMBY it just might take a little while to get there. Besides December 2004 (12.9"), all my December total snowfalls the last 11 years have been either really bad (less than 6") or quite good (16"+). I guess I feel I'm due for a mediocre December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Besides December 2004 (12.9"), all by December total snowfalls the last 11 years have been either really bad (less than 6") or quite good (16"+). I guess I feel I'm due for a mediocre December. What's your Dec. avg., around 13"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 What's your Dec. avg., around 13"? Close. 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I think i have another good year and another slow start. Going with 1.5" in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Hopefully we won't have to contend with a -NAO/-AO/-EPO fail (the 2nd half of November sure did). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 More of the same until mid month...then it gets nasty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 The GFS, Euro, and GEM have been pretty consistent with the storm around the 4th. I have a pretty good feeling about this system for some reason. Maybe it's because it fits in nicely with the last several years, in that a large storm impacts much of the Midwest the first week of Dec. Looks like it could be a nice wide swath of snow accumulations, followed by very cold air. It also looks like there's a lot of energy off the west coast for some additional storm systems beyond that weekend. It's a loooooong way off, but at this point there's really nothing else to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I think we get a storm around dec 4th too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 D9-10 storm on the EURO still warm, but it would only take a small shift south to change everything. In fact, even with the current track there might be a SN-PL-ZR-RA transition on the front side. It's hard to tell with the freebie maps. Ridging over Greenland and a 50/50 over NFLD as well at 240. Just need a bit more ridging along the west coast. But still, a lot of positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 brutal just checking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Alright folks, time to lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I am going with 6.7 inches for December. 5 of those will fall in one storm..it will be a good over running WAA event that will lay down a good 6-7 hours of moderate some times nearly heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 This is the 4th or 5th run in a row where the GFS is showing a massive gyre in the W Atlantic, spinning in place for days on end. Ensures we stay cold, but not great for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This is the 4th or 5th run in a row where the GFS is showing a massive gyre in the W Atlantic, spinning in place for days on end. Ensures we stay cold, but not great for storms. Something tells me this won't happen and its the GFS on crack yet again. though if it does downwind of the lakes would be crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Something tells me this won't happen and its the GFS on crack yet again. though if it does downwind of the lakes would be crushed. Yeah, 6z ensembles were all over the place. Some were supportive of the OP, but a lot showed a much more zonal pattern after 300+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This is the 4th or 5th run in a row where the GFS is showing a massive gyre in the W Atlantic, spinning in place for days on end. Ensures we stay cold, but not great for storms. lol at the 300hr GFS. I make myself not go past 240 . That would good for clippers and LES though. IF that keeps showing up and ends up verifying, I'll eat my words and start watching past 240 for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 lol at the 300hr GFS. I make myself not go past 240 . That would good for clippers and LES though. IF that keeps showing up and ends up verifying, I'll eat my words and start watching past 240 for trends. I tried 180 for a while. Lasted 2 days maybe. Just can't tame the inner weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 About the only snow potential for the southern GL's right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I look at the entire run. Just so I can see something that may happen, only to be crushed when the run 6 hours later doesn't show it and instead shows temps in the 60's with no storm around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This is the 4th or 5th run in a row where the GFS is showing a massive gyre in the W Atlantic, spinning in place for days on end. Ensures we stay cold, but not great for storms. I keep having this fear that we will be getting the squeeze play here with wintry stuff to the north and maybe 1 or 2 passing south/east coast lows. Maybe just paranoia though. Much more confident in the pattern biasing cold as we open the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 The storm on the 4th looks like my first semi reasonable shot at sticking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I keep having this fear that we will be getting the squeeze play here with wintry stuff to the north and maybe 1 or 2 passing south/east coast lows. Maybe just paranoia though. Much more confident in the pattern biasing cold as we open the month. Lets hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Lets hope not I have that same paranoria too. Last year everything was well too far north (Christmas) or south (January). At least everything is starting to go further east, eventually there should be a storm right over Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Lets hope not Well the good news is that I don't really have anything to support it. Just sorta wondering out loud. The pattern looks to be below average more often than not at least through the first 10 days of the month which is a good starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 ECMWF also has a faster start to December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 ECMWF also has a faster start to December: Yes lets have this system move slowly and draw up Gulf moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Well the good news is that I don't really have anything to support it. Just sorta wondering out loud. The pattern looks to be below average more often than not at least through the first 10 days of the month which is a good starting point. It's a delicate balancing act around here. This past week and next week feature some good moisture feed, but no cold. Then we look to turn cold toward the end of the week, but where's the precip? Like Alek said, maybe we can squeeze something out around the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Im definitely loving the potential with the December 4th - 5th storm. It Looks like it could be a good west to east snow event for someone (Chicago to Detroit or Indianapolis to Columbus?). It's the best threat we've had this entire season, and supression looks to be the rule this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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