Hoosier Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2011 VALID 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN RECENT RUNS...WITH BOTH EJECTING A LEAD UPPER IMPULSE ENEWD OUT OF THE MAIN WRN TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5 /THU. 2-17/. IN RESPONSE...A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS DAY 5...REACHING THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF DAY 6. AS THE CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MO VALLEY/SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR -- THIS OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- BUT ATTM EXPECT LITTLE CAPE TO BE PRESENT...DUE TO VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST RETURN AND WARM/DRY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BEING MAINTAINED BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ATTM. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN CANADA DAY 6...THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WWD INTO TX DAY 7. BOTH DAYS...A FRONTAL WAVE INVOF TX WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED BY THE LARGE-SCALE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING...AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN INTO TX MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 02/13/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 12z UKIE is really wound up not unexpectedly. 975 mb low in northeastern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 12z UKIE is really wound up not unexpectedly. 975 mb low in northeastern MN. Euro looks really deep as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yep, it's looking at present at least as if that sw EML flow that is warming us up nicely this week will also keep us relatively dry and preclude good deep and low level moisture from arriving in the midwest. This may be a system that has terrific kinematics but little moisture to play with. But if it slows down and tracks farther west we might stand a chance of seeing more gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I don't think this is a typical huge squall line if it pans out like this. There is a distinct lack of strong linear forcing being depicted which is reflected in the rather meager qpf fields. No not a huge squall line at all....if moisture return can be sufficient than maybe a few embedded or ahead of the line low topped supercell storms could be possible in areas that get >500 cape, but otherwise this looks like a NCFR setup with isolated wind damage, perhaps scattered if cape is >100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 SPC outlook this Monday morning says that EML and lack of quality moisture doom the prospects of svr with this oncoming system even though there will be a large warm sector. Guess we can put this thread to rest and await the next favorable storm. I do like the general synoptic pattern that seems to be developing. If it continues into spring and we finally do get quality gulf moisture this board will see a lot of svr weather activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 SPC outlook this Monday morning says that EML and lack of quality moisture doom the prospects of svr with this oncoming system even though there will be a large warm sector. Guess we can put this thread to rest and await the next favorable storm. I do like the general synoptic pattern that seems to be developing. If it continues into spring and we finally do get quality gulf moisture this board will see a lot of svr weather activity. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Shame that lack of better moisture is going to do this in. Can also see the cap that SPC mentions on various forecast soundings across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This disappointments me that this is not going to have the moisture for a severe weather outbreak. However, we are only about 6 weeks away from the start of the active season, maybe earlier if we have a warm spring in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This disappointments me that this is not going to have the moisture for a severe weather outbreak. However, we are only about 6 weeks away from the start of the active season, maybe earlier if we have a warm spring in these parts. I'm pretty sure that the day 9 storm will be a big severe weather threat, probably a southern plains event but might be our first moderate. I'd like the 500 mb trough to be a bit broader but w/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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