earthlight Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Monday is one of those days where you definitely cringe as a forecaster. There's a definite relative "warm sector" overnight Sunday into Monday with H85 temperatures warming to +7 or more F amid a southwest flow in the lower levels. The timing currently seems off for a "torch" (everybody over 50 F). The thermal boundary comes through around 15z which is too early this time of year, especially. Check out the 51 and 54 hour NAM. You can see the thermal gradient and how areas that are able to warm prior to it's passage get into the 50's and near 60 on Monday. Areas south of DC are probably going to have a gorgeous day. Can we slow this boundary down a bit? It should be interesting to see how the guidance handles this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 LC is concerned about ice and snow coming back SOON after the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 LC is concerned about ice and snow coming back SOON after the torch hopefully not. i'm going to hate the cold weather after many places hit 65-70 late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 hopefully not. i'm going to hate the cold weather after many places hit 65-70 late this week. It's a tease, then March gets cold and damp (La Nina style). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's a tease, then March gets cold and damp (La Nina style). hopefully we get an epic March blizzard then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Another great view of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's a tease, then March gets cold and damp (La Nina style). Hope you are right! I think from the latest forecast that 60 sounds most reasonable, but bust potential either way. A break and then a blizzard would be my perfect progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's a tease, then March gets cold and damp (La Nina style). not really, March is going to be warm and springlike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 not really, March is going to be warm and springlike Wow you are in for a major disappointment if you believe that...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 not really, March is going to be warm and springlike really? any info to back this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 not really, March is going to be warm and springlike In a La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Let's not forget the south facing shores of Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island that will probably remain in the 40's with the sw fetch off the cold water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 since we're chasing the ghost of 1947-48 for snow pack... the post Christmas Snowstorm and now a February thaw at the same time...Here is the 1947-48 thaw dailies... date......max......min......precip......snow......snowdepth... 2/13.........42.........28.........0...............0...............8" 2/14.........54.........31.........0.48..........0...............7" 2/15.........35.........22.........0.06..........0...............6" 2/16.........49.........28.........0...............0...............5" 2/17.........55.........44.........0...............0...............3" 2/18.........55.........41.........0...............0...............2" 2/19.........59.........35.........0...............0...............T 2/20.........57.........24.........0...............0...............0 2/21.........31.........20.........0...............0...............0 2/22.........30.........23.........0.42..........5.7.............5" 2/23.........31.........20.........0...............0...............3" the thaw lasted a week and melted all the snow that was on the ground except for parking lot mountains...The thaw ended on the 21st...1993-94 had a big thaw at the same time and the snow returned on the 23rd...I agree with LC...Winter comes back after the thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 since we're chasing the ghost of 1947-48 for snow pack... the post Christmas Snowstorm and now a February thaw at the same time...Here is the 1947-48 thaw dailies... date......max......min......precip......snow......snowdepth... 2/13.........42.........28.........0...............0...............8" 2/14.........54.........31.........0.48..........0...............7" 2/15.........35.........22.........0.06..........0...............6" 2/16.........49.........28.........0...............0...............5" 2/17.........55.........44.........0...............0...............3" 2/18.........55.........41.........0...............0...............2" 2/19.........59.........35.........0...............0...............T 2/20.........57.........24.........0...............0...............0 2/21.........31.........20.........0...............0...............0 2/22.........30.........23.........0.42..........5.7.............5" 2/23.........31.........20.........0...............0...............3" the thaw lasted a week and melted all the snow that was on the ground except for parking lot mountains...The thaw ended on the 21st...1993-94 had a big thaw at the same time and the snow returned on the 23rd...I agree with LC...Winter comes back after the thaw... Crazy how similar this year is to 47-48. 14th will be warm, and the 15th probably around 35 as a high as well w/ a quick shot of polar air directly out of Quebec. Then it's off to the races through the weekend. Interesting how slowly snow depth went down though. Only lost 1" on that 54 degree day? Once overnight lows remained above freezing, that's when that melt really hastened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 really? any info to back this up? just the same info as the last guy who I was responding to that said it was going to get cold and damp. Was that based on anything? La Nina...lol how did that work out this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Just my gut feeling but ole man winter isn't going away quietly he's relly pissed off this season and if i'm wrong we still had a hell of winter to date see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Really amazing how slowly the snow melted between 2/14 and 2/19 with 3 days well into the 50s and 1 day near 50 (along with 2 nights in the 40s). It must have been a solid mass after 2 months of melting and refreezing. since we're chasing the ghost of 1947-48 for snow pack... the post Christmas Snowstorm and now a February thaw at the same time...Here is the 1947-48 thaw dailies... date......max......min......precip......snow......snowdepth... 2/13.........42.........28.........0...............0...............8" 2/14.........54.........31.........0.48..........0...............7" 2/15.........35.........22.........0.06..........0...............6" 2/16.........49.........28.........0...............0...............5" 2/17.........55.........44.........0...............0...............3" 2/18.........55.........41.........0...............0...............2" 2/19.........59.........35.........0...............0...............T 2/20.........57.........24.........0...............0...............0 2/21.........31.........20.........0...............0...............0 2/22.........30.........23.........0.42..........5.7.............5" 2/23.........31.........20.........0...............0...............3" the thaw lasted a week and melted all the snow that was on the ground except for parking lot mountains...The thaw ended on the 21st...1993-94 had a big thaw at the same time and the snow returned on the 23rd...I agree with LC...Winter comes back after the thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 It's a tease, then March gets cold and damp (La Nina style). Well, snowy sounds better than damp This is so much like 1947-48, it would be funny if we ended up with the same amount of snow. Does anyone have any numbers on how much snow NYC had that year going into the Feb thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 It'll be easy for me. We might get to 45 but then the wind will instantaneously shift to S and cool us down. I doubt I see 60 here until the end of March, and given the Nina tendency for cool springs, that might be aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Already up to 48 in Central Park and 52 down at Toms River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Already up to 48 in Central Park and 52 down at Toms River. The older NAM runs were definitely too cold. It only had most of the area reaching into the mid 40's for highs...it was also a bit fast with the thermal boundary as I suspected. It usually does that, for whatever reason, in the spring. It's a bit early for that but I am not surprised. It feels great to walk outside and not be absolutely freezing. I'm all for this, if it's not snowing. Friday should be interesting...I think 60 is a good over/under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 The older NAM runs were definitely too cold. It only had most of the area reaching into the mid 40's for highs...it was also a bit fast with the thermal boundary as I suspected. It usually does that, for whatever reason, in the spring. It's a bit early for that but I am not surprised. It feels great to walk outside and not be absolutely freezing. I'm all for this, if it's not snowing. Friday should be interesting...I think 60 is a good over/under. Yeah,you could see the NAM running to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I just reached 50 degrees here and I see Toms River is up to 61 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 57 f now, don't think it's been this warm since November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Car thermo says 60. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 JFK, NYC and LGA all at 55 at 12:50p.m. 60's might be possible with front still in Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 it's 59 by me... so nice outside. I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 JFK, NYC and LGA all at 55 at 12:50p.m. 60's might be possible with front still in Albany. Yup, what sea breeze lol. I only hope the sea breeze stays lost through the summer (sort of how April 7 last year was a prelude to the summer.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 50F here in Danbury...snow pack is vaporizing before my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Big bust by Upton. Had me in the mid 40's and we're closing in on 60. Wonder if Wed-Sat will bust warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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