Ian Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Full dataset for Feb and DJF @ DCA/BWI/IAD: http://www.ianliving...ter-comparo.xls 2010-11 (all Feb) 70+ 4 DCA 2 BWI 2 IAD FEB 70+ AVG (last 30 yrs) .77 DCA .77 BWI .63 IAD DJF 70+ AVG (last 30 yrs) 1.9 DCA 1.6 BWI 1.7 IAD 1975-1976 top Feb 70+ at all 3 7 DCA 6 BWI 6 IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Every La Nina since 70-71 has had one day or more 70+ in Feb except 88-89 2007-2008 2000-2001 1999-2000 1998-1999 1995-1996 1975-1976 1974-1975 1973-1974 1971-1972 1970-1971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Since 1897, the average number of such days for an entire winter (DJF) at Richmond is 4 days a season. 2009-10 and 2002-03 were the two most recent winters to not feature a single 70-degree day. Looks like 1975-76 has the most with 13 such days. 2010-11 so far has not featured one, but that looks to change come next week. Too bad we couldn't go another two weeks to make it two winters in a row without any 70-degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Every La Nina since 70-71 has had one day or more 70+ in Feb except 88-89 2007-2008 2000-2001 1999-2000 1998-1999 1995-1996 1975-1976 1974-1975 1973-1974 1971-1972 1970-1971 Everyone who lived here that winter remembers the Jan '96 thaw that set off the massive Potomac River flood. Most will remember the February thaw too but probably not many remember the sheer extreme of our February temperature swings, with the "heat wave" coming in late February right before our last push of early March snows. IAD had a range of -10 F to 71 F, while DCA went from 5 F to 72 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Since 1897, the average number of such days for an entire winter (DJF) at Richmond is 4 days a season. 2009-10 and 2002-03 were the two most recent winters to not feature a single 70-degree day. Looks like 1975-76 has the most with 13 such days. 2010-11 so far has not featured one, but that looks to change come next week. Too bad we couldn't go another two weeks to make it two winters in a row without any 70-degree days. DCA DJF is 1.4 since 1871-72 and 1.9 last 30 seasons. 09-10, 05-06, 02-03, 97-98 are most recent with 0. last back to back 0 was 92-93, 93-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Everyone who lived here that winter remembers the Jan '96 thaw that set off the massive Potomac River flood. Most will remember the February thaw too but probably not many remember the sheer extreme of our February temperature swings, with the "heat wave" coming in late February right before our last push of early March snows. IAD had a range of -10 F to 71 F, while DCA went from 5 F to 72 F. Sounds wild. I was in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I'll happily take a couple days of 70*. It's obviously not completely anomalous for around here, and those who don't like that should move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I think 70 is going to be tough to reach anytime soon. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Every La Nina since 70-71 has had one day or more 70+ in Feb except 88-89 2007-2008 2000-2001 1999-2000 1998-1999 1995-1996 1975-1976 1974-1975 1973-1974 1971-1972 1970-1971 I think we hit it by Friday though the sewer breeze at National can sometimes be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 1976 was so impressive I remember it to this day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think 70 is going to be tough to reach anytime soon. We'll see. Where you are you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Where you are you mean? Well, yeah, I guess Randy. I guess I've just become skeptical of the modeled temps. They've busted big on the big cold forecasts, so I guess I think they will bust big on the big warm forecasts too. 70 on Friday is 26 degrees above normal for me, 23 above for you. That's pretty high. NWS seems to believe it though, so I have to respect that. They've got me at 65 for Friday. I don't really care though. If it's not going to snow, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Definitely not guaranteed.. would prob be about max looking at guidance. If I had to bet I'd say we fall just short but MOS etc is kinda terrible in this range with anomalous warmth/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 I will add IAD/BWI later and maybe a 65+ section as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 It's the length of time where nocturnal temperatures may fail to dip 32°F or below that is more impressive, as it appears an unsually long winter streak is set to occur. The RIC record for most consecutive dates above freezing in February is 18 days set in 1927. Obvisouly we won't beat that as there are fewer than 18 days left in the month, but it's quite possible up to 10 straight days may occur. BTW, the January record for this was 14 straight days set in early January 2005. The previous record was 13 set in January 1906. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 It's the length of time where nocturnal temperatures may fail to dip 32°F or below that is more impressive, as it appears an unsually long winter streak is set to occur. The RIC record for most consecutive dates above freezing in February is 18 days set in 1927. Obvisouly we won't beat that as there are fewer than 18 days left in the month, but it's quite possible up to 10 straight days may occur. BTW, the January record for this was 14 straight days set in early January 2005. The previous record was 13 set in January 1906. That is unimpressive, IMO. In January 1932, the temperature at Baltimore failed to fall below freezing until the last day of the month. And that blowtorch included three consecutive days of 75+ temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 That is unimpressive, IMO. In January 1932, the temperature at Baltimore failed to fall below freezing until the last day of the month. And that blowtorch included three consecutive days of 75+ temps. Despite the fact they are both on the coastal plain right by the fall line, the ocean has a much greater influence on Baltimore. In my opinion RIC's record is just as impressive as the Baltimore one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'd like to see a comparison of +25 days with -25 days. Certainly seems like it's way easier to get days 25 above normal (60s to near 70) than 25 below (low teens to near 20) for January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Despite the fact they are both on the coastal plain right by the fall line, the ocean has a much greater influence on Baltimore. In my opinion RIC's record is just as impressive as the Baltimore one. You do have a point. Baltimore's all time record low of -7 is probably the warmest out of any city on the Eastern seaboard, outside of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 4 degrees away... might be able to add another one to the list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 we did it! add another nina to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 we did it! add another nina to the list. Yes and we'll see another before the week is done. At least that is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yes and we'll see another before the week is done. At least that is my guess. Considering today will end up at least +10 on the NAM and GFS throughout the region, I wouldn't be too worried about having another over-performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yes and we'll see another before the week is done. At least that is my guess. i would think friday might push mid-70s based on today but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i would think friday might push mid-70s based on today but we'll see It probably will depend on wind direction but I bet someone nearby (Waldorf, Fredericksburg) reaches that high even if DCA doesn't. To me today and Friday are torch days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Boy the MOS tanked it today. Ideal mixing, poor initialization, both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Boy the MOS tanked it today. Ideal mixing, poor initialization, both? I think it's usually going to bust a day like this as will most forecasters. Heck, my Saturday forecast at CWG was like 15 degrees too low! Of course I thought the front would come through earlier. I don't know why MOS busted as I did not look at it yesterday but I'm sure it's part climo at least... but in a case like this if the front comes through 6 hours earlier you have pretty different daytime temps most likely. Everything was pretty ideal for max warmth.. warm start, lots of sun, big downsloping winds during peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 i would think friday might push mid-70s based on today but we'll see I've already got a 1:20 tee time, so I like the sound of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I saw the 0z sounding today and the 850mb temp was still -3.1C, so yeah the really cold air was taking its sweet time going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I guess it is worth mentioning that after the Feb 76 heat wave, there was a decent snowstorm on March 9. I know Baltimore got about a half foot with more in the northern suburbs. Not sure how DC did with it but I think it was more of a mix there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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