The Weather Isn't Getting Weirder

[meteorologist]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html

[Clifford]

http://online.wsj.co...0992126630.html

Well...

Snow in Alabama and Florida may hit the "weird" scale.

But, they are right that these phenomena need to be studied with statistics. I think I've seen mixed reports on hurricanes.

[superjames1992]

Well...

Snow in Alabama and Florida may hit the "weird" scale.

But, they are right that these phenomena need to be studied with statistics. I think I've seen mixed reports on hurricanes.

Snow in northern Alabama isn't all that rare. They just had a horrible decade in the 2000s.

Anyways, a lot of these places saw much harsher winters in the 1800s (1899 Blizzard, for example), so we don't really know what is weird and what is not.

[Clifford]

I bumped into the NOAA 2010 Tornado Report today.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/2010/13

There may be a small reporting bias in the early years. But, there does seem to be a robust increase in tornadoes, along with a seemingly significant jump in 1990.

[Mello]

I bumped into the NOAA 2010 Tornado Report today.

http://www.ncdc.noaa...rnadoes/2010/13

There may be a small reporting bias in the early years. But, there does seem to be a robust increase in tornadoes, along with a seemingly significant jump in 1990.

I think the reporting bias is more than small.

Take a look at the first graph in this paper:

http://www.plainschase.com/secondary/MS%20Prop.pdf

This paper doesn't specifically talk to reporting bias and I can't find the newer papers this references that do. That graph shows that almost all of the increase up to 2000 was F0 tornadoes. There was a slight increase in F1 and no trend in F2+. That leads me to think more rural tornadoes that didn't have the opportunity to damage structures and get a higher F rating are being reported.

[CoastalWx]

I bumped into the NOAA 2010 Tornado Report today.

http://www.ncdc.noaa...rnadoes/2010/13

There may be a small reporting bias in the early years. But, there does seem to be a robust increase in tornadoes, along with a seemingly significant jump in 1990.

Spotter and detection of tornadoes is exponentially better than it was even in the 90s. We're also seeing a revision and therefore increase in the number of tropical cyclones from the 1800s on, until the early era of satellite detection. That should eventually slow the whole climate change debate on the increase of storms and Cat V's.

[Clifford]

I think the reporting bias is more than small.

Take a look at the first graph in this paper:

http://www.plainscha...y/MS%20Prop.pdf

This paper doesn't specifically talk to reporting bias and I can't find the newer papers this references that do. That graph shows that almost all of the increase up to 2000 was F0 tornadoes. There was a slight increase in F1 and no trend in F2+. That leads me to think more rural tornadoes that didn't have the opportunity to damage structures and get a higher F rating are being reported.

Thanks for the reference. I was wondering if there were "damage reports", but the tornado classifications look clear enough, as well as the huge jump in F0 reporting in 1990 (which had already looked like a suspicious jump in activity).

Next thing you know, they'll be adding Dust Devils.

It sounds like NOAA is trying to be sensationalist rather than presenting a clear picture of the weather related news, and in doing so, it harms their organization.

[am19psu]

Re: tornadoes, keep in mind that in 1988, Doppler radar was deployed across the country, allowing better detection of tornadoes than ever before.

[aslkahuna]

Thanks for the reference. I was wondering if there were "damage reports", but the tornado classifications look clear enough, as well as the huge jump in F0 reporting in 1990 (which had already looked like a suspicious jump in activity).

Next thing you know, they'll be adding Dust Devils.

It sounds like NOAA is trying to be sensationalist rather than presenting a clear picture of the weather related news, and in doing so, it harms their organization.

Ironically, it has been shown by actual observations and video that dust devils can morph into weak tornadoes under the right circumstances.

Steve

[Analog96]

Spotter and detection of tornadoes is exponentially better than it was even in the 90s. We're also seeing a revision and therefore increase in the number of tropical cyclones from the 1800s on, until the early era of satellite detection. That should eventually slow the whole climate change debate on the increase of storms and Cat V's.

Very similar to why there are more hurricanes now vs in years past. In years past, storms way out in the Atlantic were not classified, because most of the time they were not even known.

[am19psu]

Very similar to why there are more hurricanes now vs in years past. In years past, storms way out in the Atlantic were not classified, because most of the time they were not even known.

Yeah, but not as much as you might think. Landsea et al (2007) showed there were probably on average 2 NS/year missed prior to 1900 and 1 NS/year missed prior to 1960.