Jefflaw77 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 So it appears that this winter has come to a screeching end.. What was an amazing 5-6 week stretch has ended sort of as abruptly as it began.. Talk about the commencement of a benign weather pattern.. It doesn't appear that much is going to happen over the next 2 weeks... Could February go the way of March 2010, where little or no snow fell after a huge month preceding it?? What are people's thoughts etc.. I know many expected the pattern to change, but did people really think that February was going to go out like a lamb... (i know we have 2.5 weeks left, but again, there doesn't appear that much is going to change to save this month.. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Please don't cancel winter like a DC area weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm not canceling winter.. Rather, I am just attempting to discuss what appears to be the reality of the situation.. Yea, March may come through with a storm or two, but from what I'm reading, things don't look great.. Hey, you never know... We could always have a March 2, 2001 (or whatever date it was) situation again.. One that succeeds. haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 well whenever one looks at the longterm pattern and says its going to be epic it almost lives up to the hype. We had no moderation at all in January so it was inevitable that we would warm up at some point. I still see one or two snow events late month or March as we could be looking at a delayed start to spring. I'm not canceling winter.. Rather, I am just attempting to discuss what appears to be the reality of the situation.. Yea, March may come through with a storm or two, but from what I'm reading, things don't look great.. Hey, you never know... We could always have a March 2, 2001 (or whatever date it was) situation again.. One that succeeds. haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm not canceling winter.. Rather, I am just attempting to discuss what appears to be the reality of the situation.. Yea, March may come through with a storm or two, but from what I'm reading, things don't look great.. Hey, you never know... We could always have a March 2, 2001 (or whatever date it was) situation again.. One that succeeds. haha.. Models are all showing overrunning potential setup day 9-11. And GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles both have the nao turning negative right around this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm happy. I've actually begun seeing parts of my driveway that weren't shoveled... I think it'll be March before I begin to see grass again, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Models are all showing overrunning potential setup day 9-11. And GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles both has the nao turning negative right around this period. After the warm spell with potential cutter, the pattern turns favorable again with a -EPO and developing NAO blocking. Initially a gradient pattern with overrunning to the north of the SE ridge and brutally cold air locked into SE Canada, there could be a nice threat for a "spread the wealth" storm. After that, the cold looks to be back with a better chance at a classic coastal. Some people forget that the mild pattern looks as if it'll only last a couple days now, meaning that winter is NOT ever. Most of the models have us back to more normal temperatures by Day 10. That gives us the last week of February and all of March to see some more snow and arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 After the warm spell with potential cutter, the pattern turns favorable again with a -EPO and developing NAO blocking. Initially a gradient pattern with overrunning to the north of the SE ridge and brutally cold air locked into SE Canada, there could be a nice threat for a "spread the wealth" storm. After that, the cold looks to be back with a better chance at a classic coastal. Some people forget that the mild pattern looks as if it'll only last a couple days now, meaning that winter is NOT ever. Most of the models have us back to more normal temperatures by Day 10. That gives us the last week of February and all of March to see some more snow and arctic air. Agreed. People are giving up way too easily. While pattern might not be the best, transient shots of cold will happen and if timed correctly, then we get a storm or 2 also. Ensemble products are all hinting of a return to winter after day 8-9. Euro weeklies look pretty bad, but they have been wrong many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Agreed. People are giving up way too easily. While pattern might not be the best, transient shots of cold will happen and if timed correctly, then we get a storm or 2 also. Ensemble products are all hinting of a return to winter after day 8-9. Euro weeklies look pretty bad, but they have been wrong many times. Apparently the Euro weeklies have temperatures around normal for the first week of March, but then turn mild. No sign of the -NAO coming back on the weeklies, unfortunately. I do believe they show the higher heights over AK mitigating the -PNA/+EPO we're going into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 After the warm spell with potential cutter, the pattern turns favorable again with a -EPO and developing NAO blocking. Initially a gradient pattern with overrunning to the north of the SE ridge and brutally cold air locked into SE Canada, there could be a nice threat for a "spread the wealth" storm. After that, the cold looks to be back with a better chance at a classic coastal. Some people forget that the mild pattern looks as if it'll only last a couple days now, meaning that winter is NOT ever. Most of the models have us back to more normal temperatures by Day 10. That gives us the last week of February and all of March to see some more snow and arctic air. This is exactly what i've been seeing as well. In fact the extent of the warm-up is yet to be determined. It will warm up, but it seems to be brief. So by end of winter what are we talking about here? 2 day warm-up? I think this tread is a little premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 This is exactly what i've been seeing as well. In fact the extent of the warm-up is yet to be determined. It will warm up, but it seems to be brief. So by end of winter what are we talking about here? 2 day warm-up? I think this tread is a little premature Temps will be near normal to above normal starting tomorrow and lasting probably thru next weekend. Thats more then 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Temps will be near normal to above normal starting tomorrow and lasting probably thru next weekend. Thats more then 2 days. This weekend will be near normal, I agree. But the warm up is Monday-Friday of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Temps will be near normal to above normal starting tomorrow and lasting probably thru next weekend. Thats more then 2 days. Not sure what your looking at, but tomorrow is NOT looking warm yet. This is the warmest I see this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Even though normals are rising I do expect the month to end up .5-1 degree above normal all said and done. Not sure what your looking at, but tomorrow is NOT looking warm yet. This is the warmest I see this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Not sure what your looking at, but tomorrow is NOT looking warm yet. This is the warmest I see this weekend. that will put you in the 40s with sunshine and a sw wind..Though I dont think we get the sunshine we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm confident we will see some more snow and cold before Spring but it ain't going to be like what we had in December and January...My guess is we see anywhere from 5-10 more inches...Probably one more storm and a dusting here and there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 that will put you in the 40s with sunshine and a sw wind..Though I dont think we get the sunshine we need I wasn't trying to suggest that we stay in the freezer. Sorry if there was any misunderstanding. I just don't see the big warmup until later in the week. Above freezing sure, but isn't that climo anyway. I just see near normal till the middle of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I wasn't trying to suggest that we stay in the freezer. Sorry if there was any misunderstanding. I just don't see the big warmup until later in the week. Above freezing sure, but isn't that climo anyway. I just see near normal till the middle of the week. Yeah, I don't see any warmth until Wednesday or Thursday next week....there's a pretty good cold shot after the clipper passes Tuesday, which helps delay the warmth's progression into the Northeast. We could actually be slightly below normal from today to Wednesday; remember, Central Park's average high is already up to 40F and climbing, so we aren't expected to have the cold we did a few weeks ago. I only see two very warm days, Thursday and Friday, before the front moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Curious if those on this site who are big fans of snow root for snow all the time, such as in April. Seems to me that most of the big snow fans are really extreme weather fans, with extreme snow events being their favorite but not to the extent that they want snow in April or May. The latter is the camp that I fall into. Come March 1st, much as I enjoy the snow, I'm ready to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Curious if those on this site who are big fans of snow root for snow all the time, such as in April. Seems to me that most of the big snow fans are really extreme weather fans, with extreme snow events being their favorite but not to the extent that they want snow in April or May. The latter is the camp that I fall into. Come March 1st, much as I enjoy the snow, I'm ready to move on. Im an extreme weather fan and I root for snow through the first half of April and then I root for heat waves lol. Screw spring and fall, theyre boring..... Winter and Summer are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Im an extreme weather fan and I root for snow through the first half of April and then I root for heat waves lol. Screw spring and fall, theyre boring..... Winter and Summer are the best Agree. There is nothing at all to track during spring and fall. Even though I hate summer, I love tracking tropical systems and severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 February 19th 1948, 1961 and 1994 had temperatures near or above sixty melting most of the snow pack for those winters...After the thaws winter returned...I expect the same to happen this year...How much winter returning is the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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