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The Look Ahead Thread


WinterWxLuvr

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No, significant winter events are over for our area...SE ridge is going to rear its head providing cutting storms...lets discuss downpurs of rain and severe weather..La Nina=More severe weather, probably.

No right back at you. You base your entire statement on computer models that may look completely different 5 days from now. You have absolutely no way to know that either of the two things you just listed are correct. Take for example the two completely different forecasts from the EC in the past 24 hours for the 10 day time period. But somehow you "know" that significant winter weather is over? Was it over Monday night? Was that significant winter weather? Thanks for the heads up, but, just the same, I think I'll keep looking for potential winter weather.

BTW, be careful wishing for severe weather. You just might get what you wish for.

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For me it's dead. I've already written my last CWG piece of the year unless something special calls me back.

well i was counting a .2" as an event but it's hard to see too much hope around here outside elevation

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No, significant winter events are over for our area...SE ridge is going to rear its head providing cutting storms...lets discuss downpurs of rain and severe weather..La Nina=More severe weather, probably.

No offense bweatherguy but when you make statements like this it reminds of when you were a regular negative poster at accuweather. Don't you think it's a little premature to say that winter weather events are over even if wes just said so?:P

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No offense bweatherguy but when you make statements like this it reminds of when you were a regular negative poster at accuweather. Don't you think it's a little premature to say that winter weather events are over even if wes just said so?:P

He is always a negative poster, some people are just annoying like that. I guess that is what gives him his jolly's in life :arrowhead: .

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No right back at you. You base your entire statement on computer models that may look completely different 5 days from now. You have absolutely no way to know that either of the two things you just listed are correct. Take for example the two completely different forecasts from the EC in the past 24 hours for the 10 day time period. But somehow you "know" that significant winter weather is over? Was it over Monday night? Was that significant winter weather? Thanks for the heads up, but, just the same, I think I'll keep looking for potential winter weather.

BTW, be careful wishing for severe weather. You just might get what you wish for.

I dont recall wishing for severe weather.

No offense bweatherguy but when you make statements like this it reminds of when you were a regular negative poster at accuweather. Don't you think it's a little premature to say that winter weather events are over even if wes just said so?:P

In this case, no I dont think its premature..not with the pattern we've been in and now that we're headed into March, I just doubt we get a favorable set up for snow and the fact wes kind of hints at that doesnt make me negative.

He is always a negative poster, some people are just annoying like that. I guess that is what gives him his jolly's in life :arrowhead: .

No I am not always a negative poster.., you can wish or be optimistic all you want, that does not make things happen....Maybe you should become a fan of my weather page, we all saw the potential on this board but I was one of the first people in the area to make a forecast on the 1/26 storm and explaining how we would receive 6+ inches of Heavy wet snow causing widespread power outages....everyone is different, some people like to be more optimistic and hold out hope for things while some see what they see and roll with it, sometimes your wrong sometimes your right

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I dont recall wishing for severe weather.

In this case, no I dont think its premature..not with the pattern we've been in and now that we're headed into March, I just doubt we get a favorable set up for snow and the fact wes kind of hints at that doesnt make me negative.

No I am not always a negative poster.., you can wish or be optimistic all you want, that does not make things happen....Maybe you should become a fan of my weather page, we all saw the potential on this board but I was one of the first people in the area to make a forecast on the 1/26 storm and explaining how we would receive 6+ inches of Heavy wet snow causing widespread power outages....everyone is different, some people like to be more optimistic and hold out hope for things while some see what they see and roll with it, sometimes your wrong sometimes your right

No, you did not say that. Sorry, that I implied that you did. Many here do, so I guess your mention of it put me in that mindset. I really don't understand those who do wish for it. I know the awe that it inspires, but it also destroys lives. I just don't want to see that.

As for what's coming, you may be a great forecaster, I don't know, but I don't think anybody is a great forecaster more than about 5 days in advance. Real winter weather can reasonably happen up until about the middle of March. After that, I think it has to be something special. I don't think anybody can say what the weather or the pattern will be the first two weeks of March with any real accuracy. That's why I think its still reasonable to keep looking ahead. It won't be long until that is, indeed, a waste of time.

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No I am not always a negative poster.., you can wish or be optimistic all you want, that does not make things happen....Maybe you should become a fan of my weather page, we all saw the potential on this board but I was one of the first people in the area to make a forecast on the 1/26 storm and explaining how we would receive 6+ inches of Heavy wet snow causing widespread power outages....everyone is different, some people like to be more optimistic and hold out hope for things while some see what they see and roll with it, sometimes your wrong sometimes your right

it's tough to go out on a 'limb' on facebook!

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No, you did not say that. Sorry, that I implied that you did. Many here do, so I guess your mention of it put me in that mindset. I really don't understand those who do wish for it. I know the awe that it inspires, but it also destroys lives. I just don't want to see that.

As for what's coming, you may be a great forecaster, I don't know, but I don't think anybody is a great forecaster more than about 5 days in advance. Real winter weather can reasonably happen up until about the middle of March. After that, I think it has to be something special. I don't think anybody can say what the weather or the pattern will be the first two weeks of March with any real accuracy. That's why I think its still reasonable to keep looking ahead. It won't be long until that is, indeed, a waste of time.

You need excuse Chris sometimes - while he comes off pessimistic, he isn't trying to be. He tends to word things in the wrong fashion that comes off a lot worse then it should.

He does, for the most part, know what he is talking about. Though, he shouldn't be so quick to say nothing significant winter weather wise will effect us... because it's still possible.

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No, you did not say that. Sorry, that I implied that you did. Many here do, so I guess your mention of it put me in that mindset. I really don't understand those who do wish for it. I know the awe that it inspires, but it also destroys lives. I just don't want to see that.

As for what's coming, you may be a great forecaster, I don't know, but I don't think anybody is a great forecaster more than about 5 days in advance. Real winter weather can reasonably happen up until about the middle of March. After that, I think it has to be something special. I don't think anybody can say what the weather or the pattern will be the first two weeks of March with any real accuracy. That's why I think its still reasonable to keep looking ahead. It won't be long until that is, indeed, a waste of time.

We've had the whole moral argument before dude. Nobody WISHES people will die or get hurt. We all agree on that. There's nothing wrong with hoping for some excitement though - and besides it's not like hoping for a couple decent wind gusts will make it happen in the end. We have no control right now.

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You need excuse Chris sometimes - while he comes off pessimistic, he isn't trying to be. He tends to word things in the wrong fashion that comes off a lot worse then it should.

He does, for the most part, know what he is talking about. Though, he shouldn't be so quick to say nothing significant winter weather wise will effect us... because it's still possible.

Yeah, I don't have any problem with him. Seems like a good guy to me. I really do believe it still lies within the realm of possibility that a significant event could still threaten us.

I've been waiting a long time for the second coming of March 93. :P

And, even if it is over, that's OK. It's been fun, a little frustrating, but we've had some good winter weather here. I'm just like an addict, though. No matter how good it is, I still want more.

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We've had the whole moral argument before dude. Nobody WISHES people will die or get hurt. We all agree on that. There's nothing wrong with hoping for some excitement though - and besides it's not like hoping for a couple decent wind gusts will make it happen in the end. We have no control right now.

I know that, and I also know (Monday night) that hoping for weather won't make it happen. I have about 8 to 10, 70 - 90 foot, trees within 60 to 25 feet of my house. All with a diameter of 18 inches to 2 feet. They really make my backyard and deck heaven, but they are scary as heck when that wind kicks up. I honestly would have some of them removed, but the cost is huge. I guess that's why I don't want to see it. I know sometimes I get wrapped up in the awesomeness of hurricanes, and find myself hoping they get strong and make landfall in the US, and then I think about the enormous pain and suffering that they cause.

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I don't really "hope" for massive severe. In fact - the most I ever "hope" for is a couple really strong wind gusts. I don't really care if people lose power as long as no lives are lost or massive damage done. Power outages are minor in the wide view on things.

My ideal situation is for there to be a crapload of warnings and a tornado watch and a bunch of warnings but only severe winds verify. Definitely don't need another La Plata...but tracking it is awesome.

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I don't really "hope" for massive severe. In fact - the most I ever "hope" for is a couple really strong wind gusts. I don't really care if people lose power as long as no lives are lost or massive damage done. Power outages are minor in the wide view on things.

My ideal situation is for there to be a crapload of warnings and a tornado watch and a bunch of warnings but only severe winds verify. Definitely don't need another La Plata...but tracking it is awesome.

I'm with ya, although I'd also like some good CG this year, rather than the destructive wind. :P

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I've always wondered, its the Bethesda Split real or myth? It seems like its always there in 90% of all events.

I have noticed this. If storms are coming from WV and moving due east they tend to split and Faquier Co and Montgomery County get the storms, while a stretch of lower Montgomer Co and at least Central and Northern Loudoun get missed. I think it is due to downsloping as it makes the most sense. Now that is for already formed storms. For storm developing east of the Mountains in Western Loudoun, they tend to make it, and storms moving SW to NE tend to do fine or NW to SE. So yes, I agree, true west to east moving systems coming across from WV tend to split.

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12z GFS sucks today. Not just for the lack of an appreciable snow threat, but also for the lack of a significant warm-up.

Fail.

And, yes, I am not taking that day 9-10 thing very seriously.

GFS has been constantly making it too cold in recent weeks through the South and East in the 6-10 day and beyond. I would expect us to continue to be near normal to above normal.

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GFS has been constantly making it too cold in recent weeks through the South and East in the 6-10 day and beyond. I would expect us to continue to be near normal to above normal.

That's because it has been hinting at the NAO going negative which keeps getting pushed back.

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