Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Dt was so into forecasting 80 that he forgot to look for a possible return of winter. I'm excited. Feb is our snowiest month. It should snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nobody posting, lol. Everybody tuned out and gave up Can I crash at your place for chase if its suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 the gfs is a bit surprising but the euro was advertising something already -- maybe ppl are angry with it still it also feels like march already I still don't really believe anything will happen. Maybe the Euro will show something, I don't know...it is kind of hard to believe after the last few days. We're in a climatologically favored period, so we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 49 degrees at 230am - Spring has officially arrived. Groundhog saw its shadow but we're fooked just the same. Lows in the upper 40s/Highs near 70 means it's spring and today is April 12th - OH WAIT! It's only Feb 17 geeze. Early spring, warmer than normal then an early summer onset monster heat ridge with highs in the mid/upper 100s by early June in DCA yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I remember February 1989 when I was in North Carolina and it was 82 degrees then snowed 14 inches two days later. A week after that we had another large storm. This is a video report from the time from WRAL: Spring will be here soon enough, I will take a little more winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 6Z gfs lol http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/06/gfs_pcp120138_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 06Z GFS has juiced up and would be a nice hit for NVA into southern PA. Still likes the 2 wave idea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like it would be a quick change over from rain to snow, north to the south. Total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like it would be a quick change over from rain to snow, north to the south. Total precip. not all snow for BWI/DCA as it includes precip that falls as rain before cold air moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 not all snow for BWI/DCA as it includes precip that falls as rain before cold air moves in Yeah, had mentioned that. Looks like it would be a quick change over though, with surface temps definetly cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like the 06Z Nam pulls the first wave farther north then the GFS. The DGEX extrapolating out from the NAM brings the second wave farther south where the precip just barely reaches the Mason/Dixon line but is cold enough for snow all the way down to SVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Is it gon snow? I think it can, I think it can, I think it can ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro says no way. It flipped also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro says no way. It flipped also Euro has been carp all season at this range otoh, I have no expectation or faith whatsoever that we will see snow next week although later in the season, the pattern this year of finding a way to skip over us was established in stone on 12/26 with one exception to the pattern....big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 wtf? I completely tuned out this week..and now this? GGEM hinted at this earlier I'm with you - MS Paint last week, abortion thread this week... I could go for another snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 JB 7am likes Canadian the best.... 0z keeps precip south of PHL so good luck to you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 General pattern over next 10 days looks like a return to chilly early week (any frozen precip not much further south than N MD/S PA with increasing chances for points north); warming again late-week and maybe another decent cold air push end of Feb/start of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Hopefully the trend continues; GFS looks cold and stormy the last two weeks of February, though at this point the snow is shown as mostly supressed or in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Potential down the road? GFS continues to look stormy and it seems that every time I look at it, it gets just a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Potential down the road? GFS continues to look stormy and it seems that every time I look at it, it gets just a bit colder. nina climo rearing its head more 70s stat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 nina climo rearing its head more 70s stat!! Its hard to get consistent spring weather this early, so I say let's have consistent winter weather until the time that the switch can be flipped to spring. Bring on the cold and snow. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW...12Z GFS has a pretty active pattern through the entire run with no signs of sustained warmth. Looks fairly seasonable with some below normal days and above normal days behind and ahead of FROPAs, respectively. A few cutters with rain in the next week. The 2/25 storm has been moving farther south with reach run, so it now passes basically overhead on Friday. Verbatim, GFS has an absolutely crippling icestorm for the VA/WV/MD mountains and western Piedmont on March 1st followed by some pretty cold air. Winter's not over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW...12Z GFS has a pretty active pattern through the entire run with no signs of sustained warmth. Looks fairly seasonable with some below normal days and above normal days behind and ahead of FROPAs, respectively. A few cutters with rain in the next week. The 2/25 storm has been moving farther south with reach run, so it now passes basically overhead on Friday. Verbatim, GFS has an absolutely crippling icestorm for the VA/WV/MD mountains and western Piedmont on March 1st followed by some pretty cold air. Winter's not over yet It came in a bit further S with the Mar 1 storm compared to 6z... now through the southern Midwest into PA. Euro takes it through the Midwest up into eastern Ontario... Ice vs. boomers Euro also much warmer and further north than the GFS for the storm on the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just glanced at the next week on the 6z GFS. If it has the pattern right, I suggest rowboats for the eastern 2/3 of the country, particularly the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Mid-Atlantic, and up the coast. Any of the long range gurus feel that there is any chance of getting enough cold air in here at any point to make one of the next three threats potentially frozen around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS continuing to trend colder on the Friday storm. Storm now goes SOUTH of the area. This run would imply a rain-sleet-snow event for the far N/W burbs of DC and Baltimore (mountains). If this trend continues, it's game on. NAM takes it overhead but leaves a tail of moisture behind that would give us flurries/dusting Friday evening (doubtful). GGEM takes it over the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS continuing to trend colder on the Friday storm. Storm now goes SOUTH of the area. This run would imply a rain-sleet-snow event for the far N/W burbs of DC and Baltimore (mountains). If this trend continues, it's game on. NAM takes it overhead but leaves a tail of moisture behind that would give us flurries/dusting Friday evening (doubtful). GGEM takes it over the Apps. the euro is pretty steady to the west of the mtns tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county078.gif Yeah that is VERY interesting. I'll be interested to see what the Euro has on tap for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...6_county078.gif Yeah that is VERY interesting. I'll be interested to see what the Euro has on tap for today. GFS clown map: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS is alarmingly close to something...but with other guidance laughing at it...it's hard to take seriously. But for places like FDK and HGR, that would be another hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS is alarmingly close to something...but with other guidance laughing at it...it's hard to take seriously. But for places like FDK and HGR, that would be another hit yep, almost wants to give the same amount as last night/today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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