Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 You mean I can't reasonably expect every snow opportunity to pound northern Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is quite warm for Monday, ~60F, but looks chilly for Tuesday. Seasonable over the weekend. The 500 pattern and 850 temps would imply fairly cold temps for the Wed/Thurs as well before a warm Friday ahead of that cold front and then possibly well below normal temps after that. Any type of blocking showing up at all or does it look to remain progressive at the end of the run? I know D10 is ridiculous to bank anything on. I'm just curious if the pattern has the potential blockiness. Getting this late in the season, we need the block to get snow odds in our favor because of temps. We'll need 15+ degrees below normal during the day in late Feb to get the surface down to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Any type of blocking showing up at all or does it look to remain progressive at the end of the run? I know D10 is ridiculous to bank anything on. I'm just curious if the pattern has the potential blockiness. Getting this late in the season, we need the block to get snow odds in our favor because of temps. We'll need 15+ degrees below normal during the day in late Feb to get the surface down to freezing. I don't see anything in the GFS Op or the Ensembles that looks like sustained blocking through the whole run. NAO looks positive most of the time, tending toward neutral for periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 JI you are slipping--- no JMA post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 JI you are slipping--- no JMA post? Damn! Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GFS made a noticeable southward shift with the Mon/Tues storm. Still would be rain, but maybe backend flurries. Moving toward the GGEM/Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GFS made a noticeable southward shift with the Mon/Tues storm. Still would be rain, but maybe backend flurries. Moving toward the GGEM/Euro? The euro ensemble mean is quite suppressed and supports the euro while the gfs and its ensembles would suggest rain though both have trended towards a more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The euro ensemble mean is quite suppressed and supports the euro while the gfs and its ensembles would suggest rain though both have trended towards a more southern track. Jb says Gfs too north euro too south and dc had a better chance of accumalting snow than boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Jb says Gfs too north euro too south and dc had a better chance of accumalting snow than boston SHOCKER...can we stop quoting him? in all seriousness, may we get some snow? maybe, but its not going to be anything more than what we have already seen, AKA minor event=less than 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS caves to the euro...much colder this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR DC on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR DC on GFS Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well, damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS caves to the euro...much colder this run Yes and No, the difference is, that it splits into two different waves..the first is still north and way warm while the second is cold and snow..It was NOT doing this before, this is probably what it was missing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 a cold storm too we cant afford any more confluence http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp1_132.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR DC on GFS Major no, moderate yes...probably a 4-8 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 this would be a 12:1 to 15:1 ratio storm. Im more worried about this going south then going north. The confluence is for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Major no, moderate yes...probably a 4-8 verbatim. 4-8 is a major snowstorm for DC 2-5 is moderate we dont live in Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 4-8 is a major snowstorm for DC 2-5 is moderate we dont live in Boston Thats all based on opinion I suppose, there is not exactly a handbook writtin on that..IMO 8" or more is considered major while the storms of last year are the HECS'...4-8 is moderate IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 wtf is up with the GFS. after an hour its only on 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 lol i mean i figured the euro was closer in prior runs but the gfs would be something. too bad it wont happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 wtf? I completely tuned out this week..and now this? GGEM hinted at this earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 lol i mean i figured the euro was closer in prior runs but the gfs would be something. too bad it wont happen. GFS has another snowstorm at D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS has another snowstorm at D10 my stats said we should get more snow -- i dunno, i'd go for more 70s instead if possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 my stats said we should get more snow -- i dunno, i'd go for more 70s instead if possible well your a moron then. You will have plenty of days for 70 degree weather while you have only a few days left of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 well your a moron then. You will have plenty of days for 70 degree weather while you have only a few days left of winter. we'll i is. eh, i'll root on the snow no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Jma Gfs ggem all give us a powder snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 we're due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nobody posting, lol. Everybody tuned out and gave up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nobody posting, lol. Everybody tuned out and gave up the gfs is a bit surprising but the euro was advertising something already -- maybe ppl are angry with it still it also feels like march already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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