Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yes they did. The pattern reamins one in which there will be more warm days than cold especially if we can't get a negative nao going. The models have been vacillating about whether one develops or not and with no MJO help, it's hard to knwo whether one will or will not develop. The pacific is problem no matter what but that's relying on the models and we're better than that. NAO is a real wildcard right now. No clear indication of going negative from any model. Not saying it won't but it isn't obvious. Neutral territory seems to be the consensus but the NAO typically doesn't stay neutral for an extended period. Last time we had a long period of the NAO being neutral was the first week of Nov. Then we had a 2 month run of an uber -NAO with not much to show for it but cold and wind. Then a brief flip to a pos NAO in Mid Jan and we FINALLY got a good storm after the NAO went negative again in late Jan. Maybe can can pull off another storm if we can flip - again. We usually have better chances of snow when the NAO is flipping from + to -. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Just saying... semi-long term trends >> run-to-run changes I'm not sure why people are using individual runs from d+6 and later to describe what's going to happen. Instead, look at general trends (which is not comparing just two recent runs) in what the pattern is doing. You could use the same argument to say "why have individual model output at all past d+5?" It's a nice product to have (MDA even produces their own similar graphics), but like looking at the maps, one must seek the trends and overall idea rather than just look at the output of a single run in the medium/long range. ----- The GFS Op. has been consistently holding onto the Southeast ridge more so than the Euro going into early next week, which would mean more aboves for us rather than neutral/below normal temps around mid-week next week. The Euro has been verifying better with 2m temps in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic recently, but the ridge usually likes to come in stronger than the models suggest in the medium range once it's "established" over the region, so I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS solution ended up verifying better. I say "established" because the ridge is a relatively recent feature, and a definite long-term pattern change hasn't really been set yet. you are making assumptions that commentary is based on one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 don't remember ever seeing a daily value above 50 on the SOI http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 don't remember ever seeing a daily value above 50 on the SOI http://www.longpaddo...30daysoivalues/ Isn't there a cyclone in the vicinity of Darwin now? I wouldn't take a daily value and run with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Is the 12z GFS waiting for the Euro to come out first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Is the 12z GFS waiting for the Euro to come out first? For real...don't know what the issue is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 For real...don't know what the issue is. the GFS hasn't come out yet??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 For real...don't know what the issue is. It's only out to hr 30 strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is probably showing big snow for the MA and the programmers know something is very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is probably showing big snow for the MA and the programmers know something is very wrong. Or an Ellinwood tornado special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Well here is the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12 UTC GFS EVENT Average Start Time Average End Time STATUS COMMENTS DATA DUMP AND PREP 14:46:16 14:54:58 COMPLETE-14:56:59 ON-TIME ANALYSIS 14:55:10 15:19:35 COMPLETE-15:21:55 ON-TIME T382 FORECAST F00-F180 15:19:44 16:25:10 RUNNING-16:53:51 1-2 HOURS LATE T190 FORECAST F192-F384 16:25:19 16:37:57 RUNNING-16:23:42 JOB RUNNING TOO LONG 12hr PRODUCTS 15:30:35 15:43:13 COMPLETE-16:16:41 31-45 MIN. LATE 24hr PRODUCTS 15:41:19 15:49:42 COMPLETE-16:41:28 46-60 MIN. LATE 36hr PRODUCTS 15:48:18 15:56:27 COMPLETE-17:07:18 1-2 HOURS LATE 48hr PRODUCTS 15:51:55 15:59:52 RUNNING-15:50:42 JOB RUNNING TOO LONG 60-72hr PRODUCTS 15:58:13 16:09:04 RUNNING-15:57:00 JOB RUNNING TOO LONG 84-120hr PRODUCTS 16:05:42 16:28:05 Target=16:20:00 RUNNING-16:05:49 JOB RUNNING TOO LONG GFS MOS FORECAST 16:12:52 16:13:27 RUNNING-16:11:41 JOB RUNNING TOO LONG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12 UTC GFS EVENT Average Start Time Average End Time STATUS COMMENTS GFS MOS FORECAST 16:12:52 16:13:27 RUNNING-16:11:41 JOB RUNNING TOO LONG So does "JOB RUNNING TOO LONG" mean pretty much "eh fook it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 NAO is a real wildcard right now. No clear indication of going negative from any model. Not saying it won't but it isn't obvious. Neutral territory seems to be the consensus but the NAO typically doesn't stay neutral for an extended period. Last time we had a long period of the NAO being neutral was the first week of Nov. Then we had a 2 month run of an uber -NAO with not much to show for it but cold and wind. Then a brief flip to a pos NAO in Mid Jan and we FINALLY got a good storm after the NAO went negative again in late Jan. Maybe can can pull off another storm if we can flip - again. We usually have better chances of snow when the NAO is flipping from + to -. On the NAO issue.... please check the ESRL reforecast esembles as the CPS forecast have been down for days. What u are seeing is the esemble forecast from Feb 11! The ESRL just updated to yesterdays and shows the NAO is already just negative. link: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/nao.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Canadian gives us snow next week here's the black and whlte 120 hr and then the color 132 and 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Can someone explain what bearing this has on our weather in the Northern Hemisphere? don't remember ever seeing a daily value above 50 on the SOI http://www.longpaddo...30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Can someone explain what bearing this has on our weather in the Northern Hemisphere? NINA (cold water in western equatorial PAC) likelier to return \it could just be a 1-day blip, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z euro is colder with early week sys... passes well south of dc now tho no real low pressure center noticeable. looks like some light accum across central/s va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z euro is colder with early week sys... passes well south of dc now tho no real low pressure center noticeable. looks like some light accum across central/s va I'm goin' postal if that happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm goin' postal if that happens again. We'll all have our chance in winters to come. Just sit back relax and enjoy what nature has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm goin' postal if that happens again. LOL... Just enjoy the weather we have right now. It's absolutely gorgeous outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 most of next week looks near or just below avg on the euro tempwise.. warmup toward the end of the week but caused by cold front moving east so it's short lived it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 most of next week looks near or just below avg on the euro tempwise.. warmup toward the end of the week but caused by cold front moving east so it's short lived it looks. That's cold is probably because I thought the pattern favored more warm days than cold in my blog but that was with the nao being nearly neutral. The euro negative NAO has been looking stronger the last two runs. One model now has a wave so suppressed we get next to nothing and the other (GFS) has it so far north stay in the warm air and probably don't get much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That's cold is probably because I thought the pattern favored more warm days than cold in my blog but that was with the nao being nearly neutral. The euro negative NAO has been looking stronger the last two runs. One model now has a wave so suppressed we get next to nothing and the other (GFS) has it so far north stay in the warm air and probably don't get much precip. the euro has been somewhat consistent on the colder idea but for some reason the gfs looks more reasonable overall to me. i guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 most of next week looks near or just below avg on the euro tempwise.. warmup toward the end of the week but caused by cold front moving east so it's short lived it looks. GFS is quite warm for Monday, ~60F, but looks chilly for Tuesday. Seasonable over the weekend. The 500 pattern and 850 temps would imply fairly cold temps for the Wed/Thurs as well before a warm Friday ahead of that cold front and then possibly well below normal temps after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the euro has been somewhat consistent on the colder idea but for some reason the gfs looks more reasonable overall to me. i guess we'll see. I agree, I've been leaning warm as the euro sometimes is quick to close off 500 highs over Greenland but don't feel strong enough to completely discount the euro now that it has the lowly GGEM on its side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is quite warm for Monday, ~60F, but looks chilly for Tuesday. Seasonable over the weekend. The 500 pattern and 850 temps would imply fairly cold temps for the Wed/Thurs as well before a warm Friday ahead of that cold front and then possibly well below normal temps after that. It looks like a real roller coasting to me. Warm days interspersed with cold that might average near normal overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 LOL... Just enjoy the weather we have right now. It's absolutely gorgeous outside! I'll have to take it from you. In this job, you don't get to go outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 We'll all have our chance in winters to come. Just sit back relax and enjoy what nature has to offer. You mean I can't reasonably expect every snow opportunity to pound northern Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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