Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 only like a one day warmup, tuesday not cold tho. nothing of major interest.. pattern looks crappy overall even at d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 only like a one day warmup, tuesday not cold tho. nothing of major interest.. pattern looks crappy overall even at d10. what do you mean a one day warm up. Today, Wed,Thurs,Friday and Saturday should be warm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 what do you mean a one day warm up. Today, Wed,Thurs,Friday and Saturday should be warm right? i meant after the weekend cooldown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'll tell you this, never happen as it may, but p009 from the gfs would be one helluva storm in the 288 - 324 range. Man o man, would I love to see one like that end the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Just amazingly beautiful today! Man, after this, can't even imagine going back to any real cold or snow. Just.... no....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 the gfs looks good if you like low pressure after low pressure passing way to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 the gfs looks good if you like low pressure after low pressure passing way to the north We're going to have to erode that subtropical high somehow... what better way than dive-bombing it with system after system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 We're going to have to erode that subtropical high somehow... what better way than dive-bombing it with system after system? and what a worst time to have to do it if you like snow in the MA (OK, maybe August would be worse, but I'm talking about the worst time to have to do it when the chances of snow are climatologically possible) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 what a putrid run if you like snow .. good news is the high seems to like us. maybe we can get some early 90s this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Just amazingly beautiful today! Man, after this, can't even imagine going back to any real cold or snow. Just.... no....LOL the hell with cold and snow bring on spring and warm temps. This winter sucked, so let it go.!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Boooooooooooooringgggggggggggg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 looking even further ahead, anyone look at the equatorial PAC lately? NINA seems to be on the wane and the CFS is showing hints of a weak NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 What's the Euro look like for the 7-10 day range. Sounds like from the other threads that there is at least a threat of winter weather close by. Looking at GFS ensembles, if nothing else, it looks like a parade of storms. I guess where is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euro looks *potentially* interesting N MD for the early week system.. precip with 0c not getting much north of D.C. Mon night. end of next week has a big low nw of chicago shooting warmth at us. d10 still shows trough in the west with no major sign of -nao etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euro looks *potentially* interesting N MD for the early week system.. precip with 0c not getting much north of D.C. Mon night. end of next week has a big low nw of chicago shooting warmth at us. d10 still shows trough in the west with no major sign of -nao etc. The only hint of a neg nao is during the early week system as some ridging develops over greenland and a northern stream system over easterN canada to its west acts to force the redevelopment of the surface low south. I'll probalby write something tomorrow even if the long range shows no storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The only hint of a neg nao is during the early week system as some ridging develops over greenland and a northern stream system over easterN canada to its west acts to force the redevelopment of the surface low south. I'll probalby write something tomorrow even if the long range shows no storms. looks like guidance has backed off the -nao returning in any great fashion anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 looks like guidance has backed off the -nao returning in any great fashion anytime soon. Bring on spring then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I can kind of understand short-term run-to-run modelcasting, but in the medium/long range? Come on, you're all better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I can kind of understand short-term run-to-run modelcasting, but in the medium/long range? Come on, you're all better than that. i guess these charts are produced for no reason? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I can kind of understand short-term run-to-run modelcasting, but in the medium/long range? Come on, you're all better than that. when are people on this board going to stop using that tired old, backhanded derogatory comment? its used all over around here, AP, wx how about a little originality if you're going to make a shiatty remark to someone, or at least make it funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 With a mod/strong Nina currently on the books, we'd all be advised to focus our attention on an early severe weather or at least an early T-storm season. Any snowstorm at this point would be a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I can kind of understand short-term run-to-run modelcasting, but in the medium/long range? Come on, you're all better than that. We know we know....you're so perfect and above all this 'nonsense.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We know we know....you're so perfect and above all this 'nonsense.' I agree with him...he wasn't insulting you so there's no need for you to respond like that. Calm down sheesh. People get hurt too easily on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I've lost interest in this winter. KA is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I agree with him...he wasn't insulting you so there's no need for you to respond like that. Calm down sheesh. People get hurt too easily on here. the models are better at pattern recognition than storm specifics.. comparing the ideas as if they are the same is sill. they pretty much nailed the warmup at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the models are better at pattern recognition than storm specifics.. comparing the ideas as if they are the same is sill. they pretty much nailed the warmup at this range. Yes they did. The pattern reamins one in which there will be more warm days than cold especially if we can't get a negative nao going. The models have been vacillating about whether one develops or not and with no MJO help, it's hard to knwo whether one will or will not develop. The pacific is problem no matter what but that's relying on the models and we're better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Gfs colder snow mix now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 we just need to get dca to 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Just saying... semi-long term trends >> run-to-run changes I'm not sure why people are using individual runs from d+6 and later to describe what's going to happen. Instead, look at general trends (which is not comparing just two recent runs) in what the pattern is doing. i guess these charts are produced for no reason? http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html You could use the same argument to say "why have individual model output at all past d+5?" It's a nice product to have (MDA even produces their own similar graphics), but like looking at the maps, one must seek the trends and overall idea rather than just look at the output of a single run in the medium/long range. ----- The GFS Op. has been consistently holding onto the Southeast ridge more so than the Euro going into early next week, which would mean more aboves for us rather than neutral/below normal temps around mid-week next week. The Euro has been verifying better with 2m temps in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic recently, but the ridge usually likes to come in stronger than the models suggest in the medium range once it's "established" over the region, so I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS solution ended up verifying better. I say "established" because the ridge is a relatively recent feature, and a definite long-term pattern change hasn't really been set yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Gfs colder snow mix now. next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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