Ellinwood Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 ITT: modelcasting d+10 or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Day 10 Euro -Ridging in Greenland...check -Trough NE of Hawaii...check -Ridging building toward Alaska...check -Trough moving through Japan...check -Winter of 10/11...check we'll be fooked again http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011021212!!/ LOL, and DT just canceled winter for the EC yesterday on FB. Add this to Mitchnick's check list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Add this to Mitchnick's check list. Well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Day 10 Euro -Ridging in Greenland...check -Trough NE of Hawaii...check -Ridging building toward Alaska...check -Trough moving through Japan...check -Winter of 10/11...check we'll be fooked again http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011021212!!/ Yep, I don't think the euro will show snow on the 00Z run, I really don't think the 12Z 500 looked that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yep, I don't think the euro will show snow on the 00Z run, I really don't think the 12Z 500 looked that good. In a totally unrelated post, I was lined up to run the 100 M dash this morning, and the guy with the starter's pistol shot me in the base of my neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 In a totally unrelated post, I was lined up to run the 100 M dash this morning, and the guy with the starter's pistol shot me in the base of my neck. Early retirement lawsuit on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yep, I don't think the euro will show snow on the 00Z run, I really don't think the 12Z 500 looked that good. I'm more interested in the next 30 days overall. Will be interesting to see if this warmup is transient instead of the cold being over for the season. I would hedge on getting cold again. It was so persistent this season. A flip to straight warm as a longer term pattern doesn't seen reasonable. Well probably step back to a cold period before the end of the season. Snow on the other hand is anyone's guess at this point. We'll track some threats and see what materializes. It would be awesome if we can get a good overrunner or even a good coastal before the end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I did some VERY basic research about Mar snow @ DCA in strong Nina years. Here's what I found: 55-56 4" 73-74 T 75-76 .8 88-89 .4 If these #'s are wrong, please let me know. If they are right, DC had some snow in Mar in all 4 strong Ninas. March 25, 1974 had a storm that missed DC to the SE. Norfolk had 7.5" that day. Meanwhile, RIC didn't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 GFS and Euro both showing a cool down next weekend. Some pretty cold stuff entering the middle of the country too. Looking at the NAO, AO, and PNA forecasts kinda puts a damper on my enthusiasm. NAO forecast to be neutral at best, AO stays positive, and no sign of a +PNA. Of course this could easily change but as I see it right now I don't think we will have any legitimate threats anytime soon. I hope I'm wrong. EDIT: 12Z GFS aint pretty. Nothing in the entire run to even think about. Don S said the trough returns to the EC during the first week of March. Big March coastal to ice the cake or time to move on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Both the Euro and its ensembles look to be a good bit cooler by this time next week with some possible interesting weather to kick off next week. The GFS, not so much. I guess to find more in depth discussion, you could look in the "Euro Look Ahead Thread". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 snow piles are almost gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 snow piles are almost gone. I still have about 40% coverage, but I'm sure that by this time tomorrow there will be none. The piles along the walkway and the driveway will need about 3 days to disappear, I suppose. I'll be glad to see it gone. I was out walking in the yard, picking up some limbs, and it is amazing how hard the ground is. I wonder just how deep the freezing level is. It will take a while to warm up the ground, at least beyond an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 00Z for the Euro and GFS and their ensembles show a pretty decent block setting up in the mid range. Only holds if for 3 or 4 days before it weakens it and moves it east though. Both the GFS and the Euro also have energy in the southwest coming out the same time as the block starts to break down. Could be interesting if we could get the block to hold a little longer with the setup shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I would say the long range in the 06Z GFS is a little wet. Most if not all of this is rain for our area. You can add another .25 to .5 that falls prior to this as well. 11 to 15 day total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'm good with that rain. Wash all the salt and other crap off the road. I would be OK with no more measurable snows until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 12Z GFS has much less rain and chilly/seasonable to slightly below normal temps all next week. Basically warm up is over after Friday. Shows another brief warm up weekend after next ahead of a cold front to start March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 With the possible storm this weekend/early next week... Given what's happened this winter with storm tracks there's still time for a sizable shift to a storm that slides to our south. Even if it doesn't I really like the HP to our north. That should provide a good chance at some decent CAD. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 We'll probably get another threat or two (anyones guess if they pan out or not) but there should be some potential somewhere before we're cooked for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 meh.. after a day like this what's the point in hoping for 1-2" that melts 3 minutes after it stops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 meh.. after a day like this what's the point in hoping for 1-2" that melts 3 minutes after it stops? I'd be happy if it stayed this way or we got a little snow either works for me. I think we might be done with 20s for highs though maybe? Don't know. You better perk up for severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 meh.. after a day like this what's the point in hoping for 1-2" that melts 3 minutes after it stops? I can make a couple K with a 2+" snow... that's the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'd be happy if it stayed this way or we got a little snow either works for me. I think we might be done with 20s for highs though maybe? Don't know. You better perk up for severe season. we should be done with 20s for highs.. i sure hope so at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 meh.. after a day like this what's the point in hoping for 1-2" that melts 3 minutes after it stops? Exactly. It's beautiful out. I'm done with Winter, and all the colds and illness that go with it. Thankfully, cold air in March doesn't have the potency and staying power of cold air in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 With the possible storm this weekend/early next week... Given what's happened this winter with storm tracks there's still time for a sizable shift to a storm that slides to our south. Even if it doesn't I really like the HP to our north. That should provide a good chance at some decent CAD. We shall see. Maybe, but this is probably more of wishing, but also dont forget the given with whats happened in terms of storms drifting back north inside 72 hours....I doubt this system produces any wintry effects for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 The subtropical ridge over the Southeast looks like it wants to rebuild past this week... wouldn't count on storms pushing further south until we can get the -AO/-NAO block to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 any word on the Euro long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 any word on the Euro long range? Just pop into the Philly thread. Tombo never misses a 12z Euro recap. I'll warn you in advance. If you are looking for something promising, don't go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 we should be done with 20s for highs.. i sure hope so at least. Maybe it's time to go as far as saying done with sub freezing highs too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 any word on the Euro long range? looks warm on monday following weekend cooldown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 looks warm on monday following weekend cooldown big flip(or flop) from yesterday and the day before. teh euro sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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