Ellinwood Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 What's next winter look like? Seriously. What signals are out there. I know its a long way away, and any outlook would be prone to serious error, but just wondering what the thought process would be. No. ----- People are saying we'll head back into a weak/mod Nina this winter after a weak/neutral summer (as per the usual climo. coming out of a strong Nina winter)... check those analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 No. ----- People are saying we'll head back into a weak/mod Nina this winter after a weak/neutral summer (as per the usual climo. coming out of a strong Nina winter)... check those analogs. I noticed that some of those models used to predict the Nina/Nino have it flipping to Nino conditions, in other words, quite the spread in forecasts. I don't know anything about those, so, likewise, nothing of their reliability. Is there one or more of those that are generally looked upon as being more reliable. Also, I don't know where to check on the analogs for a weak/moderate Nina after a strong Nina. Can you or others point me in the right direction? I know you and others look forward to and enjoy spring/summer. By your own admission, you're the severe weather weenie. Others are into the tropical side. For me, spring/summer are just a toll road I am forced to travel in order to get to Fall/Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I noticed that some of those models used to predict the Nina/Nino have it flipping to Nino conditions, in other words, quite the spread in forecasts. I don't know anything about those, so, likewise, nothing of their reliability. Is there one or more of those that are generally looked upon as being more reliable. Also, I don't know where to check on the analogs for a weak/moderate Nina after a strong Nina. Can you or others point me in the right direction? I know you and others look forward to and enjoy spring/summer. By your own admission, you're the severe weather weenie. Others are into the tropical side. For me, spring/summer are just a toll road I am forced to travel in order to get to Fall/Winter. The models are almost worthless. For composites of possible analogs you can check this and this, but you have to find what years you would think are the best fit (thats why its analog). Also, this (Weekly ENSO update) has ENSO data going back to 1950 and also has some discussion on the current ENSO evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 The models are almost worthless. For composites of possible analogs you can check this and this, but you have to find what years you would think are the best fit (thats why its analog). Also, this (Weekly ENSO update) has ENSO data going back to 1950 and also has some discussion on the current ENSO evolution. Thanks. I'll check those out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 euro already has 80s for next monday with 850s 16C+. Maybe we can get our first 90! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 euro already has 80s for next monday with 850s 16C+. Maybe we can get our first 90! Ha, I don't think anyone was kidding when they said we'd bypass the 60s for 80s and 90s. I don't mind though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 euro already has 80s for next monday with 850s 16C+. Maybe we can get our first 90! If I remember correctly, the Euro was the first to show today's warmup, and you posted it. I think it originally was for tomorrow, but it did warm up. We'll see how it does this time. I can do without 90, though. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 If I remember correctly, the Euro was the first to show today's warmup, and you posted it. I think it originally was for tomorrow, but it did warm up. We'll see how it does this time. I can do without 90, though. Ever. yeah it might have been. 16C (think we're about 15C today) is probably a little low for 90+ but at this range it could warm a bit if it holds. another sizeable low slated to pass well nw. we cook with that setup. overall the pattern looks warm after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 yeah it might have been. 16C (think we're about 15C today) is probably a little low for 90+ but at this range it could warm a bit if it holds. another sizeable low slated to pass well nw. we cook with that setup. overall the pattern looks warm after tomorrow. We got surprisingly close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 FWIW, 12z EURO looks 65-70+ (maybe well + at times) at least mon-thurs. 60+ sun.. maybe end up warmer, 850s rise really fast. storm risks mo and thurs. Lots of complaining for a pattern that is warmer than it is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 FWIW, 12z EURO looks 65-70+ (maybe well + at times) at least mon-thurs. 60+ sun.. maybe end up warmer, 850s rise really fast. storm risks mo and thurs. Lots of complaining for a pattern that is warmer than it is cold. Tom T in Bmore had 81 for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Funny. Looking at Weather Channel has 50's for weekend. What is that??? Looking for a nice storm. Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 No real vegitation yet often contributes to "warm" events overperforming by 5-7 degrees. The 86F on Monday was called to be 78 even during the mid-morning. Bust by 8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Funny. Looking at Weather Channel has 50's for weekend. What is that??? Looking for a nice storm. Thurs? there's going to be a front in the area for fri/sat it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 there's going to be a front in the area for fri/sat it seems. Yes. Hope we go on the + side with temps those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Not a fan of Friday's forecast - first softball game of the season looks to get rained out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Not a fan of Friday's forecast - first softball game of the season looks to get rained out. Hoping for a bust, with a surprise warm-up to the 60s and no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Hoping for a bust, with a surprise warm-up to the 60s and no rain. not sure how we'll get there friday.. looks pretty bleh on models with room to spare. saturday the warm air tries to push north late, i could potentially see sat end up nicer in the afternoon than planned. gfs well into the 70s sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Hoping for a bust, with a surprise warm-up to the 60s and no rain. I don't care too much about the temps, but if it didn't rain... that would be great. Not looking good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Here's eyeballed 0z Euro temps at 18z each day Sat till the end of the cycle Sat - 50-55 Sun - 65-75 Mon - 70-80+ Tue - 65-75 Wed - 60-70 Thur - 60-70+ Fri - ~60 (40s PA/80s SE VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I don't care too much about the temps, but if it didn't rain... that would be great. Not looking good though. The models missed on precip this close in over the winter a time or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Here's eyeballed 0z Euro temps at 18z each day Sat till the end of the cycle Sat - 50-55 Sun - 65-75 Mon - 70-80+ Tue - 65-75 Wed - 60-70 Thur - 60-70+ Fri - ~60 (40s PA/80s SE VA) Cold front coming through or warm front nearby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Cold front coming through or warm front nearby? looks more like the latter.. or something similar to fri/sat with a satlled front in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Looks like 80s for Sun+Mon... mid-upper 80s Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Blah... not looking good for softball games tomorrow night. Stupid rain. Oh well, if we don't play tomorrow night, we practice Sunday - can't complain too much about practicing with temps in the 70s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Any snow on the euro long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Any snow on the euro long range? Euro's warmer than the GFS. Snow's done. See ya in July when you cancel winter 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Euro's warmer than the GFS. Snow's done. See ya in July when you cancel winter 2011-2012. darn, I hope we don't have to wait that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 12z Euro surface temps DC area at 18z each day Sat - ~50 (50s s/w, 40s n/e) Sun - ~70 (850s ~12-14C) Mon - ~70-80 (850s 16C+!) Tue - 60-70 Wed - 60-70 Thur- 55-65 Fri - 50-60 Sat - 50-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 12z Euro surface temps DC area at 18z each day Sat - ~50 (50s s/w, 40s n/e) Sun - ~70 (850s ~12-14C) Mon - ~70-80 (850s 16C+!) Tue - 60-70 Wed - 60-70 Thur- 55-65 Fri - 50-60 Sat - 50-60 Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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