Wonderdog Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yes, we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Bleh... looking pretty chilly the next two or three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Bleh... looking pretty chilly the next two or three weeks. I've never been a fan of spring. The season sounds good, but the reality seems to be different. Unlike fall, which has pretty consistently excellent weather (warm days and cool nights), spring seems to very frequently be windy and wet with wild temperature swings. Most springs, you get a good number of beautiful days, but more often than not they seem to be one day at a time. Long stretches seem uncommon. The other phenomenon I see a lot is "warm and cloudy" or "cool and sunny." Warm and sunny seems to be difficult. So we ride the roller coaster, and pretty soon, we hit summer and it's too hot to do anything. Spring seems to be a nicer season further south. This area seems to be on the edge of the northeast when it comes to spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I've never been a fan of spring. The season sounds good, but the reality seems to be different. Unlike fall, which has pretty consistently excellent weather (warm days and cool nights), spring seems to very frequently be windy and wet with wild temperature swings. Most springs, you get a good number of beautiful days, but more often than not they seem to be one day at a time. Long stretches seem uncommon. The other phenomenon I see a lot is "warm and cloudy" or "cool and sunny." Warm and sunny seems to be difficult. So we ride the roller coaster, and pretty soon, we hit summer and it's too hot to do anything. Spring seems to be a nicer season further south. This area seems to be on the edge of the northeast when it comes to spring weather. Yeah, unfortunately, I have to agree with that. In most recent years (except for last year), spring has trended to being a cooler, wetter season, with cut-off lows, backdoor fronts, and days of chilly, cloudy weather. Much too often, we end up being just north of the frontal boundaries that set up across our area, leaving us in crappy dreariness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 3/25-3/30 timeframe looks actually pretty good for a storm chance. With a 50/50 and neg. nao setting up.. I simply see no reason for the storm to be pushing up west or pumping in warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Meh, would much rather have warmer temps. Not interested in Wintry stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i want to know why nws keeps putting any snow wording in the zones near the end of the period. they're in a major battle against climo and we can't even get snow at d7 in the hear of winter with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i want to know why nws keeps putting any snow wording in the zones near the end of the period. they're in a major battle against climo and we can't even get snow at d7 in the hear of winter with ease. Agreed. Keep it as rain in the zone forecasts, and limit the mention of snow possibilities (as remote as they are) to the forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Wxrisk posted this on FaceBook: *** ALERT *** 12Z MONDAY GFS has "M.E.C.S." for April 1-2.. -- MECS stands for Major East Coast Snowstorm APRIL 1-2 .. and NO this is NOT an April's fool trick I figured I'd post it for you know whats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Wxrisk posted this on FaceBook: *** ALERT *** 12Z MONDAY GFS has "M.E.C.S." for April 1-2.. -- MECS stands for Major East Coast Snowstorm APRIL 1-2 .. and NO this is NOT an April's fool trick I figured I'd post it for you know whats ' 288 hours out. Really? For a near miss that's not snow? Why not concentrate on the 138-150 hour fantasy that's at least snow or mixed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ' 288 hours out. Really? For a near miss that's not snow? Why not concentrate on the 138-150 hour fantasy that's at least snow or mixed? He is a moron. He even posted that on Paul Kocin's wall page. Like do you you think Paul Kocin gives a flying eff about 288 hours out when he is in Iceland on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Alert: the modeled cold over the next 10 days blows goats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 He is a moron. He even posted that on Paul Kocin's wall page. Like do you you think Paul Kocin gives a flying eff about 288 hours out when he is in Iceland on vacation. Why go to Iceland for vacation in March? Prices must be cheaper...? I'm liking my chances in the Last Freeze contest, particularly my guesses for BWI and IAD (April 2nd). Not going to feel like spring again for awhile. I think someone in the area sees snowflakes between now and next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ' 288 hours out. Really? For a near miss that's not snow? Why not concentrate on the 138-150 hour fantasy that's at least snow or mixed? this weekend looks cold and frozen at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 About 1/3 (DC and BWI) to 2/3rds (Sterling and Cumberland) of the SREF plume members end as snow on Thursday, but with basically no additional precip after changeover. Edit...nearly all the 12z GFS ensemble members also switch to snow at the very end with very little to no additional precip. The majority also show freezing/frozen precip for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i just loled at dt's post what a dope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 How does the Euro look for the Sunday/Mon event? I don't have access right now. I guess the lack of posts is my answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 How does the Euro look for the Sunday/Mon event? I don't have access right now. I guess the lack of posts is my answer... apparently theres .85" qpf of snow at DCA, according to the NYC 23-24 storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 How does the Euro look for the Sunday/Mon event? I don't have access right now. I guess the lack of posts is my answer... From what I can see on Ewall, it looks like it has potential. 850 0C line is well south of us at 12z on Sunday with a nice CAD signature. By Monday at 12z it's all well OTS, so can't tell what happens in between. Vort looks to probably pass overhead or just to our north if I can extrapolate between the two frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 looks like it's all snow for dc on sunday.. too bad it wont happen that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 euro crushes us....all snow .85 for DC. Congrats Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 lol @ the Euro. Somebody here will buy it though. Our bit hit this Thursday looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Can nobody see the irony here? This has to happen. It has to. A beautiful, heavy snow, wasted in late March. We couldn't seem to get clouds during the real winter season. It's the perfectly ironic, painful, end to this winter. Mark it down. It has to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 But seriously though, out of all the "empire strikes back" threats this season, if something were to happen, this time frame would be ideal. NAO, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 lol @ the Euro. Somebody here will buy it though. Our bit hit this Thursday looks great! The Euro is money inside a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 But seriously though, out of all the "empire strikes back" threats this season, if something were to happen, this time frame would be ideal. NAO, etc. we don't really get snow of any consequence this late anymore. maybe a few decades ago and prior. if the gfs looks like this now at 500: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_150m.gif it's highly unlikely it will get into the position we need imo going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 we don't really get snow of any consequence this late anymore. maybe a few decades ago and prior. if the gfs looks like this now at 500: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_150m.gif it's highly unlikely it will get into the position we need imo going forward. Well like I said, I'm doubtful and it's far more likely that nothing will happen. But IF there was a time period that was favorable for a late season snow, that time period looks the "best" out of all the late threats so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Well like I said, I'm doubtful and it's far more likely that nothing will happen. But IF there was a time period that was favorable for a late season snow, that time period looks the "best" out of all the late threats so far. yeah perhaps that's true. i could see it being further south than the thursday event but that may mean pennsylvania or into the mason dixon. good thing we have the DT storm in 12 days to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 JMA is a big hit and its supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Dave rallying the FB weenies ***ALERT *** 2ND POSSIBLE late season S.E.C.S. (Significant East Coast snowstorm) MARCH 27 for NORTHERN VA DCA- BWI as wel as central MD into PHL and southern NJ area!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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