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The Look Ahead Thread


WinterWxLuvr

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meh, they only made the lack of snow more intolerable imho, not to speak of the fact it was expensive for nothing

don't get me wrong, I gladly paid last year's electric bill because I felt I was getting my money's worth

I know, I only want it cold when we get snow and shortly thereafter to keep it around for a bit. If not, give me upper 40s/50 for the rest of it. :weight_lift:

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hmm. GFS and Euro show some cold coming back in less than 10 days. Interesting. Can't really buy into it that much but there is some mounting evidence that the warm weather won't last 2 weeks.

Too bad there is no blocking showing up. THAT is what we really need.

it's tough to say with certainty but i'd guess by the last week of the mo we'll have some crap storm that will miss us to track

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Very high odds of your forecast verifying. It's the storm AFTER that that will break our weenie heart and souls.

im usually tempted to close down shop at the end of feb imby but i think we've got the first two weeks of mar this yr as well at least.

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im usually tempted to close down shop at the end of feb imby but i think we've got the first two weeks of mar this yr as well at least.

I did some VERY basic research about Mar snow @ DCA in strong Nina years. Here's what I found:

55-56 4"

73-74 T

75-76 .8

88-89 .4

If these #'s are wrong, please let me know. If they are right, DC had some snow in Mar in all 4 strong Ninas.

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Here are the biggest Mar snows in DC:

1891 Mar 27-28 12"

1945 Mar 28 11.5"

1999 Mar 9 8.4"

Snowiest Marches:

1914 19.3"

1960 17.1"

1891 17"

It can snow here in March. Maybe we get lucky and get a storm that brings us above climo.

It's not on your list since it's not technically one of the "biggest" ones (at least as DCA measures)...but just 2 years ago, March 1-2, 2009 we got a pretty decent moderate event of several inches or more depending on where you were (I think DCA got 5.5" ?). Yeah, I know there was some disappointment in that storm, it originally was expected to be a fair amount more siginificant than it turned out. In fact, if it weren't for the amazing deformation band the morning of March 2, it may have ended up being a big forecast bust. But it ended up being the biggest event of that winter. It also was below freezing for 2 straight days in DC, pretty incredible at that time of year.

Also, don't forget the March 1993 storm. While it changed to sleet/ice/rain then back to some snow, I believe area-wide people got 6-12" from that...again, followed by some pretty incredible cold if I recall correctly.

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LC is concerned about snow and ice for us after the warm spell

I have to wonder, and I'm posing this as a serious question...not to be facetious. Isn't it much less likely around here to get ice events in late February or March, just simply due to the ground naturally warming? So you tend to get either rain or snow? At least that's the impression I had and what I've sort of heard.

That is, barring an intense and extremely dynamic situation or something like that.

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I have to wonder, and I'm posing this as a serious question...not to be facetious. Isn't it much less likely around here to get ice events in late February or March, just simply due to the ground naturally warming? So you tend to get either rain or snow? At least that's the impression I had and what I've sort of heard.

That is, barring an intense and extremely dynamic situation or something like that.

probably, at least for an ice event that targets more than elevated surfaces/trees.. you'd need a really anomalously cold air mass at least. no matter how you cut the sun is getting more powerful and it will keep surfaces warmer. i'd think our icestorm 'sweet spot' very closely aligns with our coldest/least sun angly time of year.

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Day 10 Euro

-Ridging in Greenland...check

-Trough NE of Hawaii...check

-Ridging building toward Alaska...check

-Trough moving through Japan...check

-Winter of 10/11...check

we'll be fooked again

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20hemisphere!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011021212!!/

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Day 10 Euro

-Ridging in Greenland...check

-Trough NE of Hawaii...check

-Ridging building toward Alaska...check

-Trough moving through Japan...check

-Winter of 10/11...check

we'll be fooked again

http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011021212!!/

i was wrong on feb it seems (well i could eke it out at the end ;)) but mostly because i thought we'd flip warm sooner. i think the "look" toward the end of the range goes back colder/stormier again. we should have at least a threat or two and probably a few inches at least. i would not be shocked if there is some EC blockbuster looming for Mar, though it might be a march 01. :P

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i was wrong on feb it seems (well i could eke it out at the end ;)) but mostly because i thought we'd flip warm sooner. i think the "look" toward the end of the range goes back colder/stormier again. we should have at least a threat or two and probably a few inches at least. i would not be shocked if there is some EC blockbuster looming for Mar, though it might be a march 01. :P

Thanks Ian, i just got out of therapy over that one. Back to the doctor.:lightning:

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i was wrong on feb it seems (well i could eke it out at the end ;)) but mostly because i thought we'd flip warm sooner. i think the "look" toward the end of the range goes back colder/stormier again. we should have at least a threat or two and probably a few inches at least. i would not be shocked if there is some EC blockbuster looming for Mar, though it might be a march 01. :P

LOL, and DT just canceled winter for the EC yesterday on FB.

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