WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Anybody taking late next week as any type of real threat for wintry weather? The GFS looks interesting, and the EURO, what I can see of it, looks to be similar even if it's a little warmer. Next weekend looks cold. Of course, cold air has been overmodeled all season. So, thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I just looked at the 6z GFS, wxluvr, and...eh, I guess. It's just that we are so late in the season and so much would have to come together, and even on those maps, it doesn't come together. I will take miss-and-not-all-that-close-a-miss ftw. The persistent coldish air being modeled kinda sucks, frankly, for this late in March. Stupid la nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Anybody taking late next week as any type of real threat for wintry weather? The GFS looks interesting, and the EURO, what I can see of it, looks to be similar even if it's a little warmer. Next weekend looks cold. Of course, cold air has been overmodeled all season. So, thoughts? Not taking it seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Not taking it seriously Yeah, I'm in the same boat I guess, especially after the way most threats have gone. I feel like the guy with the gambling addiction though. Just one more bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 To put it in perspective, the record low high temperature on March 24th at Dulles is 40°. The raw 6z GFS has a high around 30 at Midnight with a 10am temp in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 To put it in perspective, the record low high temperature on March 24th at Dulles is 40°. The raw 6z GFS has a high around 30 at Midnight with a 10am temp in the teens. Yeah. the GFS is likely having its normal issues with cold Bias....Sure its going to be a cool down, maybe highs in the 40's, lows in 20's in some spots...I suppose the snow weenies are already excited though...Justin Berk seems to be on the snow train already...kind of gave me a hard time about me saying I dont buy it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 The Canadian, the DGEX, the EC and the GFS are all in fairly good agreement, I would think confidence is above normal for a significant event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 The Canadian, the DGEX, the EC and the GFS are all in fairly good agreement, I would think confidence is above normal for a significant event The Canadian looks quite a bit different than the GFS to me, but Ok if you say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 CMC out to 144, how is this "MUCH DIFFERENT" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 CMC out to 144, how is this "MUCH DIFFERENT" Well for one, the timing is about 24 hours off, maybe to be expected that far out, two, it doesnt seem nearly as cold to me as the GFS....My point is, your going to need a lot to go right for snow in the Mid ATl in Late March so to say that a significant event looks likely, sound pretty premature to me, maybe I should ask what you mean by significant though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 LOL of course timing is going to be off as well as temps but the system is there accross the board in one way or another, which I would say leads to "above average" confidence in a signicant event. Snow/Ice/rain??? plenty of time to sort out the details. It's just nice to have something to track after 6-8 weeks of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 To put it in perspective, the record low high temperature on March 24th at Dulles is 40°. The raw 6z GFS has a high around 30 at Midnight with a 10am temp in the teens. Gonna be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 LOL of course timing is going to be off as well as temps but the system is there accross the board in one way or another, which I would say leads to "above average" confidence in a signicant event. Snow/Ice/rain??? plenty of time to sort out the details. It's just nice to have something to track after 6-8 weeks of nothing. I agree, its nice to look at something, with the potential of some cold air running around, but Excuse me if I dont buy a snow event for DC/Baltimore a week out in Late march right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I'm Not going with it right know, hard to get this kind of set up this time of the year, though it has happen before, but right know i don't think it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Accuweather (and Henry) are saying that snow is possible during this time period, so I better break out the sunscreen in preparation for 80 degree temps: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/47126/snow-in-the-eastern-us-thats-the-question.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12z GFS back to showing some light snow/rasn/cold rain for Thursday and then a cold Friday with highs near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12z GFS back to showing some light snow/rasn/cold rain for Thursday and then a cold Friday with highs near freezing. Bring it. I'll be on a plane Sat AM to Palm Springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 major fight against climo.. good luck if you have any hope and are near the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 euro still has about 1/4" liquid over the area with 850s cold enough for snow. surface looks warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 euro still has about 1/4" liquid over the area with 850s cold enough for snow. surface looks warm though. This is just typical. Just when I, and most others, are ready for spring and warmth, the weather pattern throws this at us. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a cold, miserable spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 1-2" N & W of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Can't tell much about snow chances from what I see on Ewall for the Euro (there is a s/w and 850 temps near or below zero on Thursday), but it definitely seems down with a very chilly Friday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12z GFS says rain, maybe ending as some flurries/wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12z GFS says rain, maybe ending as some flurries/wet snow. This is probably the most likely solution in my mind, with the NAO being around neutral or slightly negative, to me it means a storm wont be suppressed but it also wont be that far north..A chilly rain, possibly ending as non accumulating flurries/snow showers seems like the case to me, nothing we have not seen in Late March before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 18z ensemble members are interesting (still) for next Friday. I guess the possibility, even remote, is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Can't believe Accuweather hyping the precip next week. So we have a few days of cold air -- not unusual for late March and April. We have had quite a few "cherry blossoms and snow" events. All in all the weather has been very nice. I will take 50 degrees and sunny anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 00z GFS is pretty crappy..Im ready to call this threat dead, not that it was much of a threat anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Still looks like a very cold Friday and Saturday. Could set record low max temps. The snow idea was always a long shot. The cold has been very consistently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Still looks like a very cold Friday and Saturday. Could set record low max temps. The snow idea was always a long shot. The cold has been very consistently modeled. It may very well happen, but, to me, overmodeling cold air is something that the models have consistently done all winter ( at any lengthy time range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 It may very well happen, but, to me, overmodeling cold air is something that the models have consistently done all winter ( at any lengthy time range). The strength of the cold always seemed to moderate as we got closer to reality, that's true. But the timing didn't usually slide right and the fronts themselves didn't "vanish" too often like they seem to do some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.