Kmlwx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 looks like about .5" qpf before changeover around dc tho.. i'd take it I would hope so - anything this late is positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 looks like about .5" qpf before changeover around dc tho.. i'd take it Yeah me too...I actually wouldn't really like a big accumulating snow now because it really messes up landscaping schedules...so a 2-3" front end dump would be nice.... oh and it is the euro which has shown about 3-4 major snowstorms in this timeframe that have turned out to be non events for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 looks like it would start Monday night so it would be a night time snow which would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 looks like it would start Monday night so it would be a night time snow which would help. I'd imagine that's a huge storm above 2k feet-- Blacksburg, Waynesboror, Staunton, Harrisonburg..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I actually wouldn't mind the snow that much... there's supposed to be a good warm up soon afterward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'd imagine that's a huge storm above 2k feet-- Blacksburg, Waynesboror, Staunton, Harrisonburg..etc. STRONGY AGREE!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'd imagine that's a huge storm above 2k feet-- Blacksburg, Waynesboror, Staunton, Harrisonburg..etc. the jackpot is LYH as your 850 temps never make it above 0 total precip through 168--about 2 inches of liquid with temps near 0 for both surface and 850 at -2 to -3 for alot of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 LYH N 18Z 14-MAR 5.6 -1.7 1025 62 93 0.03 563 542 TUE 00Z 15-MAR 1.1 -3.4 1025 98 97 0.18 562 541 TUE 06Z 15-MAR 0.2 -3.5 1024 98 99 0.36 560 541 TUE 12Z 15-MAR -0.5 -2.6 1023 93 92 0.56 560 541 TUE 18Z 15-MAR 0.2 -1.3 1023 89 94 0.21 560 542 WED 00Z 16-MAR 0.4 -0.2 1020 93 82 0.23 560 544 WED 06Z 16-MAR 0.6 -0.2 1018 93 93 0.47 559 544 WED 12Z 16-MAR 1.0 2.2 1017 92 92 0.21 559 546 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 STRONGY AGREE!! lol Thanks DT the jackpot is LYH as your 850 temps never make it above 0 total precip through 168--about 2 inches of liquid with temps near 0 for both surface and 850 at -2 to -3 for alot of the storm That would rock... LYH N 18Z 14-MAR 5.6 -1.7 1025 62 93 0.03 563 542 TUE 00Z 15-MAR 1.1 -3.4 1025 98 97 0.18 562 541 TUE 06Z 15-MAR 0.2 -3.5 1024 98 99 0.36 560 541 TUE 12Z 15-MAR -0.5 -2.6 1023 93 92 0.56 560 541 TUE 18Z 15-MAR 0.2 -1.3 1023 89 94 0.21 560 542 WED 00Z 16-MAR 0.4 -0.2 1020 93 82 0.23 560 544 WED 06Z 16-MAR 0.6 -0.2 1018 93 93 0.47 559 544 WED 12Z 16-MAR 1.0 2.2 1017 92 92 0.21 559 546 And thanks for the exact data-- Those 36 hour events never pan our as shown-- I'd bet the bulk 75% would fall in 12-15 hours. Ideally from 7 PM to 7 AM--- And, BTW Congrats-- north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 18z GFS brings it back somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 18z GFS brings it back somewhat Yeah, still not close to the Euro solution though..we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 19th storm is still there http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 18z GFS brings it back somewhat Enough to keep interest, definitely. I have to say that I like the fact that the GFS has something there for a while now, that the EC likes us so far, and that Ian and Ellinwood have had positives to say about it. We'll just have to see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Wouldnt it be wild to get blitzed in mid March? Why not? Bring it on. April 1, 1924: This April Fools Day Storm produced the latest recorded major snowfall (4 or more inches). Baltimore recorded over 9 inches of snow and Washington received 5 inches. The latest snow ever recorded at Baltimore was a trace on May 9, 1923. In Washington, the latest snow was seen on May 10, 1906, when a trace fell. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/DC-Winters.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Wouldnt it be wild to get blitzed in mid March? Why not? Bring it on. I think you guys in Winchester got a bit of a shaft on 3/16/07, but that was my biggest snowfall living in WV until Dec 2009. It can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 We need a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario for the storm in six days. The troposphere needs to force freezing cold air straight down into that almost stationary low off of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 So far, 0z looks nothing like 18z. Ah, the good ol GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 00Z GFS says "what storm? you guys are nutz." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 6z GFS, any alleged system is squashed and off the coast well south. I am guessing the Euro gave up also based on the lack of chatter. Back to stalking warm temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 6z GFS, any alleged system is squashed and off the coast well south. I am guessing the Euro gave up also based on the lack of chatter. Back to stalking warm temperatures... Amazing how these "threats" just evaporate from one run to the next...unless, of course, they show a rain scenario. Guess it is time to put the shovels away for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 00Z GFS says "what storm? you guys are nutz." so does the 0Z Euro poof, its gone (or at least squashed to the south of us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Funny how the euro never loses a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 what a joke the euro is...from a slow moving QPF bomb yesterday to nothing today...this only happens with potential snow...it never loses a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 the euro is quite warm next fri/sat.. sat could be an 80 contender if it worked out right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 the euro is quite warm next fri/sat.. sat could be an 80 contender if it worked out right That's delightful news. Let's hope that 10-day fantasy comes closer than 10-day fantasy snows do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's delightful news. Let's hope that 10-day fantasy comes closer than 10-day fantasy snows do... It's money in the bank. Ji has got it right on this one. Rain - modeled perfectly, snow - modeled completely wrong. I saw this as a last chance. So be it, let's bring on spring then summer. My wish ... avg high temp of 65 degrees until May 1 with a daily deviation of 5 degrees, avg 70 from May 1 to June 20 same dev., avg 75 from June 20 to Aug 1, same dev., avg 80 from Aug 1 to Aug 2, then back down the same way until Nov. 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 If it's not going to snow, we may as well be sunny and 65+ degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It's money in the bank. Ji has got it right on this one. Rain - modeled perfectly, snow - modeled completely wrong. I saw this as a last chance. So be it, let's bring on spring then summer. My wish ... avg high temp of 65 degrees until May 1 with a daily deviation of 5 degrees, avg 70 from May 1 to June 20 same dev., avg 75 from June 20 to Aug 1, same dev., avg 80 from Aug 1 to Aug 2, then back down the same way until Nov. 1. Well of course, that's no surprise... you need a whole lot of things to go perfectly for it to snow here. Rain, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well of course, that's no surprise... you need a whole lot of things to go perfectly for it to snow here. Rain, not so much. Yeah, theres many other factors that go into snow...Exact track of storm, Surface high features, troughs, just to name a few...of course all these play into rain storms too but for snow you need them to be exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well of course, that's no surprise... you need a whole lot of things to go perfectly for it to snow here. Rain, not so much. Agreed, but not what I was saying. Allow me to clarify. Too warm for snow, precip forecast, storm strength forecast, storm track forecast, modeled well most of the time. Cold enough for snow, if precip is forecast, probably will get none, storm actually forecast to exist, either will not exist at all, or the track will be off by several hundred miles. I am talking mainly about a 4 to 5 day forecast, but a couple of times we saw this happen this winter within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.