mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 well some were blowing off the gfs yesterday as an "off run" at 6z but then it showed up again at 12z. while it was gone on 18z/0z the 500 maps would indicat the threat is still real. the way it comes together is troubling i guess... it's mainly or all northern stream and those usually trend bad. plus it's mid march. im sort of pulling for it because of the nina stuff i pulled too... we got snow at other dates of past snow groupings so it would be neat to see it happen again in mid march. So is that a yes, or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 So is that a yes, or no? it's like a week out in mid march. based on history probably no but it looks ok for now and may be our last opp if it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 it's like a week out in mid march. based on history probably no but it looks ok for now and may be our last opp if it's legit. I was kidding... I understand. Thank you for your insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z gfs looks pretty terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z gfs looks pretty terrible Theres no amplification at all on the GFS, even thru 204 hours...Things start to get amped with the 19th storm, but its a warm storm relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Do I finally get my warm-up then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Theres no amplification at all on the GFS, even thru 204 hours...Things start to get amped with the 19th storm, but its a warm storm relatively speaking. there's still hope i suppose but having the vort just shoot off to the east makes plenty of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Do I finally get my warm-up then? doesnt look that way.. the gfs has -nao through most of the latter part of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 doesnt look that way.. the gfs has -nao through most of the latter part of the run Just really the worst case scenario. Blocking re-develops to give us a cold end of winter/start of spring with no early warm-up after we missed on so much of the snow. I will hope it is modeling that wrong and there is a quicker warm-up than it is adversting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Just really the worst case scenario. Blocking re-develops to give us a cold end of winter/start of spring with no early warm-up after we missed on so much of the snow. I will hope it is modeling that wrong and there is a quicker warm-up than it is adversting. yeah it kinda sucks but in another 2-4 weeks it's pretty hard to fight climo, so one way or another there is more warmth not too far off. plus cooler air is better for the explosion of color that comes on. if we warm too fast a lot of the flowering trees and whatnot turn green right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 WOW at the euro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 yeah it kinda sucks but in another 2-4 weeks it's pretty hard to fight climo, so one way or another there is more warmth not too far off. plus cooler air is better for the explosion of color that comes on. if we warm too fast a lot of the flowering trees and whatnot turn green right away. That's a good point. But I could live with 60s pretty happily for awhile, that shouldn't be too warm to whither the flowering trees quite so fast. But I shall learn to live with whatever I get. In this case, cool and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 WOW at the euro!! Hello now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Anybody have some QPF numbers with this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 hr 144 closed low over northern ga, surface low over nc/sc coastal border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Anybody have some QPF numbers with this ? thing is crawling qpf in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Excellent. I was hoping for one last Euro vs. GFS battle on this cursed winter. Maybe this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 EURO is a major wet snowstorm. Temps at 33 in the middle of March. We are going to need some big time rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 hr 162 low is over ilm warmer air is taking over by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 For Richmond, Starts off as snow and goes to a cold rain. 1 inch of cold rain after .60 of almost snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 hr 168 2"+ roa to ezf to raleigh storm still going but is rain by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Really wrapping the warmth in off of the ocean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 For Richmond, Starts off as snow and goes to a cold rain. 1 inch of cold rain after .60 of almost snow yea everyone goes to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 yea everyone goes to rain no blocking...the high slides out to sea. Thats killing us the past month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 hr 144 closed low over northern ga, surface low over nc/sc coastal border I swear if there is the potential for snow (sureface temps) in Wash/Balt and this storm goes south and central Va gets it...I won't post on this board until next winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 precip starts at hr 132 mon 8pm and goes until hr 174 2pm wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 precip starts at hr 132 mon 8pm and goes until hr 174 2pm wed anyone from up here want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 precip starts at hr 132 mon 8pm and goes until hr 174 2pm wed that would be called a slow mover and it actually hurts us because it lets all the cold air depart lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 this is standard d5-7 euro crap of this season probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 looks like about .5" qpf before changeover around dc tho.. i'd take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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