BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 people on facebook will follow anybody .. just look at dt Thanks This board use to praise him though as well, and beg for radio shows from him, so Im not sure what the point is....anyway I think tonights 00Z runs are the most interesting runs since mid Feb (between the heavy rain and now this snow threat), thats not saying much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 My lips are sealed on this one till its under 120 84 hours...Justin Berk is already squawking a bit about it so Im sure they know since most of my fans are his too. Much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thanks This board use to praise him though as well, and beg for radio shows from him, so Im not sure what the point is....anyway I think tonights 00Z runs are the most interesting runs since mid Feb (between the heavy rain and now this snow threat), thats not saying much though. i didnt 'praise' him so direct that elsewhere. it is smart to let the experts start to formulate before compiling and sending that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'm in LA next week. I won't be unhappy to miss the cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 no 18z gfs storm but 500 indicates it's probably still a threat http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_162m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Are the 18z ensembles members more bullish than the op or about the same on average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 00z GFS very unintersted in the snow threat next week....tears the storm apart to the south and gives us zippo...SO much for interesting runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Dr no says yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Dr no says yes Oh? Gotta love it when the Euro and GFS tag team in and out on a threat. GFS yes, Euro no. GFS no, Euro yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Dr no says yes ric 0.75" orf 1.00" cho 0.50" lyh 0.50" dc 0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 ric 0.75" orf 1.00" cho 0.50" lyh 0.50" dc 0.40" 2009/10 me: South at this timeframe, right where I want it. 2010/11 me: Congrats Norfolk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 EURO is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 i like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 EURO is a big hit What time frame are you looking at? Does it line up, time wise, with the GFS? I've noticed quite a bit of spread in the GFS ens. members wrt timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 i like Dang, with some of you guys throwing out positive comments, it's hard to not be intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 What time frame are you looking at? Does it line up, time wise, with the GFS? I've noticed quite a bit of spread in the GFS ens. members wrt timing. tue/wed... it sped up or started looking like early y-day gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 i like Good for you all in DC, less so up here? Or does Balt get some qpf too? I am guessing Balt/northern MD is due for a payback from that last system that gave the area about five inches while DC was hosed with just 1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wait - is snow actually being discussed, or more rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wait - is snow actually being discussed, or more rain? Rumor has it, snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Rumor has it, snow. And ION said he actually liked a model run this far out? Mmmm, perhaps I should start paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 And ION said he actually liked a model run this far out? Mmmm, perhaps I should start paying attention. Yeah, and ellinwood murmured about the upper levels being favorable for it too, at some point yesterday, I think. Enough chatter from those who have a good idea about such things to pique interest for me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Good for you all in DC, less so up here? Or does Balt get some qpf too? I am guessing Balt/northern MD is due for a payback from that last system that gave the area about five inches while DC was hosed with just 1 or so. Soundings show .29" of qpf for BWI. Surface temps are pretty warm for everyone. Uppers 30's, most of the event. But all other levels are well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Yeah, and ellinwood murmured about the upper levels being favorable for it too, at some point yesterday, I think. Enough chatter from those who have a good idea about such things to pique interest for me anyway. Agreed. I could definitely go for another snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Soundings show .29" of qpf for BWI. Surface temps are pretty warm for everyone. Uppers 30's, most of the event. But all other levels are well below freezing. Latest GFS ensembles showing lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s... ECMWF ensembles showing lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Low passing to the south with high pressure pushing down air from the north... I wouldn't be too worried about temps at this point. Storm track and timing will be biggest players to watch over the next 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Latest GFS ensembles showing lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s... ECMWF ensembles showing lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Low passing to the south with high pressure pushing down air from the north... I wouldn't be too worried about temps at this point. Storm track and timing will be biggest players to watch over the next 3-4 days. Agree. Someone asked about BWI and I read them the soundings off euro. I dont live in this area. Just helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 A bit more support for the NAO to go neg and PNA to stay pos around the 16th-20th. AO stinks though. Not saying there is any threat during this timeframe but if we can get the flip back to a neg NAO during the seond half of the month then this winter aint over yet. Of course all this could mean is temps in the 40's with cold rain but it's better than a torch. Save the torch for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Agree. Someone asked about BWI and I read them the soundings off euro. I dont live in this area. Just helping out. Wasn't necessarily an issue with your post more so than reminding the weenies that we shouldn't be worried about the numbers at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Agree. Someone asked about BWI and I read them the soundings off euro. I dont live in this area. Just helping out. It was me, and thanks for your info. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wasn't necessarily an issue with your post more so than reminding the weenies that we shouldn't be worried about the numbers at this point Not "worried" about the numbers, Ellinwood, simply trying to get a mental pic on what the Euro showed since I have not seen the maps. Sounds like that run the stronger wetter part of the storm is south of Baltimore with DC and areas to its south in the wetter part. I was just trying to get a handle on what it was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 And ION said he actually liked a model run this far out? Mmmm, perhaps I should start paying attention. well some were blowing off the gfs yesterday as an "off run" at 6z but then it showed up again at 12z. while it was gone on 18z/0z the 500 maps would indicat the threat is still real. the way it comes together is troubling i guess... it's mainly or all northern stream and those usually trend bad. plus it's mid march. im sort of pulling for it because of the nina stuff i pulled too... we got snow at other dates of past snow groupings so it would be neat to see it happen again in mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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