Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 this place is dead There's not a lot happening though. To be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 There's not a lot happening though. To be expected. huh? look at all the snow...let it clank...tis-da stuff we all need right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 huh? look at all the snow...let it clank...tis-da stuff we all need right now... Woohoo blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 looks like everything is shifting north into the end.. we'll get .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Lol in one run one day before the storm the euro took 1 inch of qpf away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 There are at least some hints at -NAO, -AO, and +PNA around the 12th - 16th of the month. I wouldn't mind one more threat to chase before it's all said and done. The weather has been ridiculously boring over the last week. What happened to the March lion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 In like a lamb, out like a lion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 In like a lamb, out like a lion In like a lamb out like a lamb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Anybody at least curious about the 7 to 9 day period? Negative NAO, Positive PNA, Negative AO, MJO in or around phase 8 forecasted as of today for that time period. A semi interesting set of solutions in the GFS ens. members. Any interest there, or a whole lot of nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Anybody at least curious about the 7 to 9 day period? Negative NAO, Positive PNA, Negative AO, MJO in or around phase 8 forecasted as of today for that time period. A semi interesting set of solutions in the GFS ens. members. Any interest there, or a whole lot of nothing? the Euro looks good for the 3 or 4 states that have the 850 line below zero at D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 the Euro looks good for the 3 or 4 states that have the 850 line below zero at D10 Yeah, but.... the EC went from a low north of the lakes and a cold front with warm temps in front of it, and warm temps in our area on its 0z run at 8 days, to a high north of the lakes, weak low pressure to our south, and not so warm temps in our area on its 12z run at 8 days. It's hard for me to see much wrt the EC because of the maps that I have access to. The GFS also looks interesting. Just wondering if anybody sees any real potential, or if this is just more teasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 lets just not talk about it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 lets just not talk about it yet Then don't post in the look AHEAD thread. Post in the look behind thread. It's here somewhere. Stay with it. You'll find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah, but.... the EC went from a low north of the lakes and a cold front with warm temps in front of it, and warm temps in our area on its 0z run at 8 days, to a high north of the lakes, weak low pressure to our south, and not so warm temps in our area on its 12z run at 8 days. It's hard for me to see much wrt the EC because of the maps that I have access to. The GFS also looks interesting. Just wondering if anybody sees any real potential, or if this is just more teasing. GFS is likely too cold. 200+ hr. forecast with an upper-level ridge over the Southeast? Yeah, it'll warm up (or should). We certainly don't need to be looking at run-to-runs in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah, but.... the EC went from a low north of the lakes and a cold front with warm temps in front of it, and warm temps in our area on its 0z run at 8 days, to a high north of the lakes, weak low pressure to our south, and not so warm temps in our area on its 12z run at 8 days. It's hard for me to see much wrt the EC because of the maps that I have access to. The GFS also looks interesting. Just wondering if anybody sees any real potential, or if this is just more teasing. 18Z GFS @ 9-10 days? Odds on that verify are slim and none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 18Z GFS @ 9-10 days? Odds on that verify are slim and none. You're right of course, but at least for now it's something. All of the supposed indicators of possible winter weather at least seem to be trending toward what everyone seems to think is good, so who knows. I would definitely think that we are nearing the time of "last reasonable hope" so maybe we get lucky and something pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 You're right of course, but at least for now it's something. All of the supposed indicators of possible winter weather at least seem to be trending toward what everyone seems to think is good, so who knows. I would definitely think that we are nearing the time of "last reasonable hope" so maybe we get lucky and something pans out. This winter has left a sour taste in my mouth so I would love to see one more shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 You're right of course, but at least for now it's something. All of the supposed indicators of possible winter weather at least seem to be trending toward what everyone seems to think is good, so who knows. I would definitely think that we are nearing the time of "last reasonable hope" so maybe we get lucky and something pans out. In a year where a lot of threats have failed to come true I find this hard to believe even with some favorable indices. 1) H5 track at 240 hours is north of us which isn't that favorable even in the middle of winter let alone the tail end. Obviously it can change but I'm not sure it's the best track at all right now this far out. 2) Also note that you used the 18z GFS way out at 240 hours. Take a look at the 12z GFS - obviously there will be wild swings this far out but look at H5 out around the 200+ hour frames on 12z - 850 low is WAY north and H5 tracks significantly north of us. If you're going to use surface maps this far out you gotta look at the general H5 pattern as well. Sure there's potential but I wouldn't say it's an awesome scenario for us. Perhaps it'd be better if we were back in February or Jan. In fact, H5 pretty much heads over the Great Lakes on the 12z run. Not exactly what we want if you're still looking for any type of snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Then don't post in the look AHEAD thread. Post in the look behind thread. It's here somewhere. Stay with it. You'll find it. If you want snow, don't talk about it too much...you'll kill it, just like you killed the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 If you want snow, don't talk about it too much...you'll kill it, just like you killed the winter My bad. It probably won't amount to anything, but since we a very short time left, I think I've become desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 My bad. It probably won't amount to anything, but since we a very short time left, I think I've become desperate. haven't you been desperate all winter? - It's a NINA winter...live with it. Don't grasp at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 haven't you been desperate all winter? - It's a NINA winter...live with it. Don't grasp at straws. Every now and then, you pull the long one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 did no one see the wierd closed 500 mb low at around hours 120-180 on the gfs? it just sits right off the coast of the delmarva. The block is super south but there is no cold air either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 did no one see the wierd closed 500 mb low at around hours 120-180 on the gfs? it just sits right off the coast of the delmarva. The block is super south but there is no cold air either 0z ECM trended towards this but it's unlikely to be snow...the vortex that's developed over Baffin Island/Western Greenland is really killing us. Strong pattern change this winter from a powerful -NAO to a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yeah, but.... the EC went from a low north of the lakes and a cold front with warm temps in front of it, and warm temps in our area on its 0z run at 8 days, to a high north of the lakes, weak low pressure to our south, and not so warm temps in our area on its 12z run at 8 days. It's hard for me to see much wrt the EC because of the maps that I have access to. The GFS also looks interesting. Just wondering if anybody sees any real potential, or if this is just more teasing. It looks like the 00Z and the 06Z had similar solutions at this time frame. I'm starting to get interested. Nah, maybe I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Storm on the 19th same as the Supermoon? " Moon will be within the nearest to Earth on March 19, 2011, Satellite Earth it will appear larger. At night, something like this happened since 1993, 18 years ago. This phenomenon is called ‘lunar perigee’. Meanwhile, there are astrologers who called it ‘SuperMoon’. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Storm on the 19th same as the Supermoon? " Moon will be within the nearest to Earth on March 19, 2011, Satellite Earth it will appear larger. At night, something like this happened since 1993, 18 years ago. This phenomenon is called ‘lunar perigee’. Meanwhile, there are astrologers who called it ‘SuperMoon’. " Interesting thought, but LOL @ using 300 hr. GFS Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 What do others think of the event showing on the GFS in about one week? Does the EC have it too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 What do others think of the event showing on the GFS in about one week? Does the EC have it too? A storm dive-bombing into a weak ridge in the Southeast... I'd be careful about calling for snow at this point. ECM is all "lulz what storm?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 A storm dive-bombing into a weak ridge in the Southeast... I'd be careful about calling for snow at this point. ECM is all "lulz what storm?" Thanks. I can hardly figure out anything from the EC graphics I can access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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