Ellinwood Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 DT"s outlook says active severe-wx season coming, I'm ready. Maybe we will hit that special zone between the dryness and the storm track For the Plains/Midwest. Not for here. That being said, I think we'll be hit or miss this year. We could have another "ridge of death" over the Southeast, which would push storms further north. However, if the ridge is weaker this year compared to last year (i.e. my forecast), the storm's dynamics will push through a little further south and therefore a little closer to our region. I could see an above average amount of cold frontal storms happening this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 For the Plains/Midwest. Not for here. That being said, I think we'll be hit or miss this year. We could have another "ridge of death" over the Southeast, which would push storms further north. However, if the ridge is weaker this year compared to last year (i.e. my forecast), the storm's dynamics will push through a little further south and therefore a little closer to our region. I could see an above average amount of cold frontal storms happening this year. I would gladly take that. What usually follows those cold frontal storms is nice, dry, comfortable air. Now that's fine summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Alright... who decided to add snow in the zones? Ji? Ian? Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 March 5-6 storm rather interesting, but will probably be a loss for all sides. Moderate to heavy rain with maybe a few rumbles of thunder. NAM showing the possibility of an embedded convective line in southern VA... something to at least have fun watching on radar. Timing... GFS probably still has the best idea... ECM running a little slower, and NAM running even slower than that. Vort stays fairly well preserved on NAM and GFS, but should pass to our north. GFS goes negative with the UL trough faster than the NAM and ECM... recent trends indicate that it's been too quick to do that. NAM/ECM blend with GFS speed would be my best guess as to how to depict the storm via the models. East of the mountains will likely not get accumulating snow, though some flakes could be seen falling from the sky at the end of the main precip. event and/or with some brief lake-effect afterward. ----- Watching the Thursday system... could be hit or miss with boomers. CAD out ahead of the storm will probably be in issue, but intense WAA could negate it. GFS and ECM depicting SFC low development to our south as main precip. heads through... not a good sign. We need these lows to be cleaner and track to our north if we want to see some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Big changes tonight in the NAM. Looks to develop a low along the front to the south of us? Really slows everything down. Don't think it matters for any chances of snowflakes, but an interesting change nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Big changes tonight in the NAM. Looks to develop a low along the front to the south of us? Really slows everything down. Don't think it matters for any chances of snowflakes, but an interesting change nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12 hr QPF ... Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 hmm. Don't use ensemble means to determine rain/snow... it's not reliable in these types of situations. Example: 21z SREF shows "snow" on the ensemble mean at the end, but none of the individual members have the same signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 hmm. Yeah dude you really gotta watch that. It's been discussed a lot this winter. That shows what precip has fallen PRIOR to that point. The 850 line is right over us. All that precip has likely mostly all fallen BEFORE the 850 crosses us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 suprised this storm isn't getting discussed much...we won't see anything more than a flurry at the end but it's still interesting to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 suprised this storm isn't getting discussed much...we won't see anything more than a flurry at the end but it's still interesting to track... moderate to heavy rain gets no love till there is flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Three has been like 22 straight lake cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z GFS has no precip hole at all, everyone >1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Three has been like 22 straight lake cutters we should start getting good coastals again by april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 euro holds off most precip till midday sunday but it's pretty wet too.. 1"+ everywhere, prob closer to 2" in many spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 euro holds off most precip till midday sunday but it's pretty wet too.. 1"+ everywhere, prob closer to 2" in many spots. yep..looks like a legit qpf event 1.50-2 inches Whats it showing on March 11? I see a bit of cold liquid in the MOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yep..looks like a legit qpf event 1.50-2 inches Whats it showing on March 11? I see a bit of cold liquid in the MOS? I see it, too... in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I see it, too... in Canada. hudson bay ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like a decent amount of QPF no matter which model you choose. Might as well get it now before the summer drought kicks in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 looking further ahead...perhaps something to watch severewx wise late next week? Has the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 this thread survived. Until the next gfs qpf hole graphic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 euro 174 and 216 ftmfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 looking further ahead...perhaps something to watch severewx wise late next week? Has the look. Not really... my previous thoughts (see: previous page) still stand. Crappy air in place before the system... way too stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 euro 174 and 216 ftmfw dry and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 march is a horrible month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Not really... my previous thoughts (see: previous page) still stand. Crappy air in place before the system... way too stable. Yes I read that. Seems though that models usually trend dynamically better towards the event/or kill it? I wouldn't expect anything better 1 week out, especially this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yes I read that. Seems though that models usually trend dynamically better towards the event..or kill it? I wouldn't expect anything better 1 week out, especially this time of year. The main problem so far and going into the future is the presence of high pressure systems to the north and east of the storm systems... they keep filling into the region, which is causing stable air to lock in east of the mountains. Because the low pressure systems are in such close proximity to the highs, we don't get enough southerly flow ahead of the storms to draw the unstable air far enough north. Instead, once we actually DO warm sector, we're then pulling in milder air off of the Atlantic, which helps our case a little but isn't the potent air that we COULD get from the Gulf. If you'll recall my "perfect ingredients for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic" Best guess (for any time of the year) would be (1) high pressure to the E two days prior, drawing up warm, moist air from the Gulf the two days before, with (2) a potent low w/ the vort. max in a negatively-tilted trough coming out of the base of a trough moving ENE from (approx.) OK->OH->PA/NY. Aiding this would be (3) upper level jet(s) in a couple of different spots (either putting us in the left-exit or right-entrance part of the jet for greatest UL divergence). We are looking at a good storm track and a deepening low (perhaps I should have used that terminology instead of negative-based trough since neutral-tilt continental systems are also quite potent), and we also have support of an upper-level jet. However, condition #1 is not being met in that the high pressure is out of position. Instead of being well off the coast and drawing air up from the south (Gulf), it's close proximity to the storm systems is what's causing us the biggest headache in getting unstable air and storms into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The main problem so far and going into the future is the presence of high pressure systems to the north and east of the storm systems... they keep filling into the region, which is causing stable air to lock in east of the mountains. Because the low pressure systems are in such close proximity to the highs, we don't get enough southerly flow ahead of the storms to draw the unstable air far enough north. Instead, once we actually DO warm sector, we're then pulling in milder air off of the Atlantic, which helps our case a little but isn't the potent air that we COULD get from the Gulf. If you'll recall my "perfect ingredients for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic" We are looking at a good storm track and a deepening low (perhaps I should have used that terminology instead of negative-based trough since neutral-tilt continental systems are also quite potent), and we also have support of an upper-level jet. However, condition #1 is not being met in that the high pressure is out of position. Instead of being well off the coast and drawing air up from the south (Gulf), it's close proximity to the storm systems is what's causing us the biggest headache in getting unstable air and storms into the region. Agree completely on the highs locking the CAD in place until its too late, lets save that for winter. Timing of all the features could be a factor between now and then, just my view. I think it'd be a good storm system to track nonetheless. If the timing of the storm speeds up, the low is probably weaker, so outrunning the high is not an option? Deeper, slower, solution may cut it too far west? I don't have your knowledge base obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 this place is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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