Ji Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_288.shtml Lots of blocking lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp0_288.shtml Lots of blocking lots of snow the sample is really small but there is a solid grouping of snowdays near mid-mar in mod/strong ninas (doesnt include this yr). http://www.americanw...-washington-dc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Here's to the GFS and Euro showing a monster storm in the 6-8 days period tonight!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 The GFS would at least suggest a possible return to cold and potentially snowy weather in the first weeks of March. Maybe we can pull one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The GFS would at least suggest a possible return to cold and potentially snowy weather in the first weeks of March. Maybe we can pull one out. But how often is the long range GFS correct? - It's also notorious for bringing too much cold in and over amplifying in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Ensembles signal potential -NAO in about a week. If that happens we should get a storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just for fun, 18z OP GFS has another howler with heavy QPF at 216, would probably morph as it heads closer to reality, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just for fun, 18z OP GFS has another howler with heavy QPF at 216, would probably morph as it heads closer to reality, Probably? Dude you KNOW that's changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just for fun, 18z OP GFS has another howler with heavy QPF at 216, would probably morph as it heads closer to reality, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Probably? Dude you KNOW that's changing I should have elaborated on "morph" Morph = less QPF DC/MD south, More Mason-Dixon N, warmer ahead of the storm, and gusts behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 lol Do I amuse you? I hope you're not pissed at my "stfu" comment over on the other board... had everything to do with the Irony of a Christmas Eve Blizzard...not you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Do I amuse you? I hope you're not pissed at my "stfu" comment over on the other board... had everything to do with the Irony of a Christmas Eve Blizzard...not you! All is cool just some of your posts are funny since they are so far in the future, like the 216 gfs and talking qpf etc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Posting a 216 18z gfs map is quite comical and then trying to break down QPF, etc is very hilarious When I see a potential storm in a suckish winter like this, I'm gonna hug my favorite model like its my own Although I was being slightly sarcastic in my "morph" post to Kenny. Mid Atlantic rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 where is ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 where is ji? Dreaming about days gone bye in a new super winter storm thread mostly posting to himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The GFS is being pretty stubborn about some sort of storm next weekend. It has had something sizable on the runs I have looked at for the last three days. It feels to me like if there is going to be one last chance at being disappointed while places nearby cash in, it's next weekend. This was the relevant frame from the latest run of the GFS: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The GFS is being pretty stubborn about some sort of storm next weekend. It has had something sizable on the runs I have looked at for the last three days. It feels to me like if there is going to be one last chance at being disappointed while places nearby cash in, it's next weekend. This was the relevant frame from the latest run of the GFS: http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif If you look at the 192 hour 2 m temp it's almost plus 10 with the wave going right over us. The 2 m temp almost falls to freezing by 204 hr but by then the precip is pretty much over. I guess it could change but that is not a snow look at least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If you look at the 192 hour 2 m temp it's almost plus 10 with the wave going right over us. The 2 m temp almost falls to freezing by 204 hr but by then the precip is pretty much over. I guess it could change but that is not a snow look at least to me. Unless I'm reading the 2m temp map incorrectly, it looks like the 0 line is close to NOVA at hour 204 with plenty of precip coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Unless I'm reading the 2m temp map incorrectly, it looks like the 0 line is close to NOVA at hour 204 with plenty of precip coming down. thats the freezing line at the end of the 12hr frame-snip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 thats the freezing line at the end of the 12hr frame-snip. All we need to be looking at in this time range is that there is a storm with ample cold air nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 thats the freezing line at the end of the 12hr frame-snip. That's what I was trying to explain. Too many people are looking at the temp at the end of the 12h period and are therefore thinking its snow and that's not how I see the storm on the GFS. The same thing holds for the 12Z run. It's not a bad track of the low but has no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 What in the hell is going on with this Monday storm? Either the GFS is on crack, or the Euro has some serious catching up to do. 500mb getting radically sheared off on the GFS... NAM and Euro hold it together a bit more, though timing is still a big issue with this system. It's about time to tell the northern stream to f*** off so we can get some storms that aren't complicated in more ways than they should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 most of the guidance has stretched the low out a bit. im not sure i buy the gfs tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If you look at the 192 hour 2 m temp it's almost plus 10 with the wave going right over us. The 2 m temp almost falls to freezing by 204 hr but by then the precip is pretty much over. I guess it could change but that is not a snow look at least to me. Was going to say pretty much the same thing...surely all the precip is done by that time frame (it's the 12 hour amount ending at 204-h). As Wes says, it's way above freezing in the 12 hour period before that. Maybe some flakes at the end though before the precip stops! Regardless, sure looks like a fairly active pattern if the GFS is correct in what it's been showing the past few days, and neither all that cold or warm. I suppose the chance for some lucky/fluke last snow event in there is possible, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Was going to say pretty much the same thing...surely all the precip is done by that time frame (it's the 12 hour amount ending at 204-h). As Wes says, it's way above freezing in the 12 hour period before that. Maybe some flakes at the end though before the precip stops! Regardless, sure looks like a fairly active pattern if the GFS is correct in what it's been showing the past few days, and neither all that cold or warm. I suppose the chance for some lucky/fluke last snow event in there is possible, but who knows. It may be active but is not a very good pattern for snow in our area unless the pattern switches in the pacific or Atlantic. The models are forecasting a positive NAO and a negative PNA pattern. That's a pretty bad combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 It may be active but is not a very good pattern for snow in our area unless the pattern switches in the pacific or Atlantic. The models are forecasting a positive NAO and a negative PNA pattern. That's a pretty bad combo. True enough, not exactly the most ideal look for snow to be sure. But certainly appears active. The good thing about that, I suppose, is if the GFS is correct we can sure use the precip! We really don't need a dry spring, heading into the upcoming summer. (Not to mention, it's nice to have something wash away the pollen now and then!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If you look at the 192 hour 2 m temp it's almost plus 10 with the wave going right over us. The 2 m temp almost falls to freezing by 204 hr but by then the precip is pretty much over. I guess it could change but that is not a snow look at least to me. Wes, it's so hard to talk storms on this site sometimes. We are almost out of time. I was not posting that as if it was a snow look, or a lock, just noting the presence of a storm. I don't know that there are a lot of chances left, so I was just mentioning a storm on the map for next weekend. I suppose I could have been lame and posted crap from Feb 2010 as if its current instead of mentioning actual current weather, but that's kinda being covered elsewhere. If it's done, it's done. But this pattern bores me, and if it's not going to warm up, I guess I will keep an eye and see if there is a surprise that could pop. Even though I fully acknowledge, and think I have always been pretty clear in acknowledging, it is a longshot to see snow still on this season. I would be much happier to see 70s on the maps for a week straight, but that's not in the cards either it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 thats the freezing line at the end of the 12hr frame-snip. Thank you, my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_192s.gif here's the storm that we'll be tracking after the monday event...looks like a pretty potent cold front...slightly interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 The GFS is showing a scenario that reminds me of March 8, 1995. Am I remembering correctly? Anybody who has info on that storm, or can link me to that event, it would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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