WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hey, we need this thread, if for no other reason than we need to keep looking because we're almost out of time. I figure we have about a month where we can still see legit winter weather that's anything other than a nuisance. I know right now it doesn't look good, but we've all seen two week outlooks change greatly in the span of a few days. So, those who know, post here. For example, what's the word wrt to the GFS, its ensembles, the EC, its ensembles for the next ten days. Good or bad, let's keep looking ahead while it still matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Haven't we had some material blizzards, even a KU, as late as April 7, 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Well after around feb 26 or so we will see some kind of wintery pattern redevelope. Until then expect springlike weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Haven't we had some material blizzards, even a KU, as late as April 7, 2011? 1) you live in ny 2) are you predicting a ku on april 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 1) you live in ny 2) are you predicting a ku on april 7? Typo. I was referring to 1982 storm, where Boston and New York were at or greater than 10" (not sure about PHL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 We are going to need serious serious megablocking around here after late Feb. Higher sun angle Mild soil temps Climatological progression of average temps is going to massacre our chances for accumulating snow after March 1 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS for at least two weeks prior to the block OUCH OUCH OUCH Just take a gander at the models - Warmanistas are Tahrir Squaring us snow lovers straight out of office - With NO severance package - and it won't take two weeks - only two days We'll need severe blocking just to get air down here cold enough to support snow - then riddle me this Batman: How are you going to get a storm in here with that strong of a block? We are going to need billions of truckloads of deep moisture up in here for snow to counteract the warm ground, murderous sun angle and climatological normal temps so we can enjoy a BRIEF accumulation. I REALLY need to move to Jay Peak, Vermont last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hey, we need this thread, if for no other reason than we need to keep looking because we're almost out of time. I figure we have about a month where we can still see legit winter weather that's anything other than a nuisance. I know right now it doesn't look good, but we've all seen two week outlooks change greatly in the span of a few days. So, those who know, post here. For example, what's the word wrt to the GFS, its ensembles, the EC, its ensembles for the next ten days. Good or bad, let's keep looking ahead while it still matters. Well obviously the next 10 days, theres nothing on the table at all...We have to look way into the future to try to even see a potential storm....Looks relatively warm for a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 How much confidence do we place in the models depiction of what the weather will be in 7 days or so. Usually this winter they haven't been too accurate. I'm just wondering if now we have more confidence and if so why. Anyway, I think we are wise to keep looking. Even though it doesn't happen often, late Feb and early March (first couple of weeks) can be very wintry occassionally. It just usually doesn't last very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 How much confidence do we place in the models depiction of what the weather will be in 7 days or so. Usually this winter they haven't been too accurate. I'm just wondering if now we have more confidence and if so why. Anyway, I think we are wise to keep looking. Even though it doesn't happen often, late Feb and early March (first couple of weeks) can be very wintry occassionally. It just usually doesn't last very long. models do pretty well with overall pattern but suck with storms. Bottom line...its going to got really freaking hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Dang I wish the torch would have held off for one more week - had planned to ski WV on Presi weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 models do pretty well with overall pattern but suck with storms. Bottom line...its going to got really freaking hot Well, I won't address pattern, but with regard to cold, they have often overdone that this winter, so why wouldn't it be the same with warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Well, I won't address pattern, but with regard to cold, they have often overdone that this winter, so why wouldn't it be the same with warm? Well.... looking ahead for the next 10 - 14 days and possible the rest of winter, there appears to be considerable spread in the upcoming pattern. There is already a difference in the NAO forecast: consider: CPC Esemble NAO compared to the ESRL reforecast numbers: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png for Feb 10th. Should the PSD numbers end up being correct the warmth will be mitigated quickly with a flat ridge in the deep southeast and much colder conditions returning Dc on up north. The major player is going to be the Strat warming recently concluded and another major one possibly originating soon: look at : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml the last frame shows one warming up to the poles and another one just starting up .... probably mountain torque events that have played a major role this winter. The AO/NAO forecasts catch on a bit later to the Strat. forcings. I Think Donsutherland mentions this in his earlier posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Well, I won't address pattern, but with regard to cold, they have often overdone that this winter, so why wouldn't it be the same with warm? we're due. i think we avg like 2 days 70+ in met winter the last 30 yrs.. will have to double check. 50s-60s+ is not really that warm compared to 0s being cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Bottom line...its going to got really freaking hot Not quite. "Really freaking hot" is what we endured almost this entire past summer with seemingly endless 95-100 degree heat. If it gets into the 50s or 60s over the next week or so that would be quite pleasant in my book, despite the fact that I'd rather see cold and snow at this time of year. Now, if we start seeing 90s in April (like we have before), that will be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 models do pretty well with overall pattern but suck with storms. Bottom line...its going to got really freaking hot Winter is looking like it's done, at least from our area south. Not to say there can't be a small event or two, but the next two weeks really take a big chunk out of what remains of our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Looks like something in the 30-60 hour range.. Its probably going to miss but its something to watch FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Looks like something in the 30-60 hour range.. Its probably going to miss but its something to watch FWIW. those work out for us like once in 30 billion years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 those work out for us like once in 30 billion years JI says we have a "historical" "chance" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ioke09 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Do you think the NAO returns to a negative state? Models keep trying to by President's Day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 those work out for us like once in 30 billion years like kill devil hills deserves more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 those work out for us like once in 30 billion years Well, what can you say. When there is going to be a break in the cold pattern for 2+ weeks; any shortwave that has even a small semblance of a chance sparks your interest. I know its 99% probable that it wont happen but that 1% is what will lead me to at least monitor it. It gives me something to do at least lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Well, I won't address pattern, but with regard to cold, they have often overdone that this winter, so why wouldn't it be the same with warm? Yeah models often overdo cold, but in my experience they often UNDERDO warmth and warm ups Looks like something in the 30-60 hour range.. Its probably going to miss but its something to watch FWIW. Really? its been the same the last 4 days on all models....No chance of that thing effecting anyone up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 If you want some fantasy storms to chase the 06Z GFS is for you. Long range shows colder temps with stormy conditions after 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 winter cancel? Yeah, the MJO is not exerting much influence on the extratropics at all. New Euro weeklies never show a true -EPO ridge going up and, consequently, everywhere east of the Rockies is above normal through mid-March. It's certainly within the realm of possibility with no signs of a -AO anytime soon and a weak tropical influence. The weeklies do show a weak -NAO after President's Day, but it really only saves New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Countdown now until the first "240 fail: sun angle" post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 JI says we have a "historical" "chance" of snow Uh-oh! Does that mean we'll soon hear JB hyping some apocalyptic storm for March that will rival the 1993 Superstorm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 If you want some fantasy storms to chase the 06Z GFS is for you. Long range shows colder temps with stormy conditions after 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 winter cancel? what "winter"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 what "winter"? Tell that to our below normal temps. Brrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Tell that to our below normal temps. Brrr! meh, they only made the lack of snow more intolerable imho, not to speak of the fact it was expensive for nothing don't get me wrong, I gladly paid last year's electric bill because I felt I was getting my money's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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