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A real forecasting challenge for non mets here?


The_Global_Warmer

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I was thinking about forecasting and how far I have come since I started this in 2006.

I wish to take part in a forecasting contest. But not the simple high and low. More of say a week long thing where the challengers have to submit there forecast and reasoning each day once per day so it is not to taxing..we can set up verification scores and maybe pro mets could give analysis and judgment of our "Forecast Discussions" and forecasts.

just some thoughts....

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I have a lot to do, so getting this set up will take a couple days or a couple weeks...so lets throw out ideas and hopefully we can start a contest by teh next time a winter event bears down.

Or we can do severe, or a warm up, or a flood, drought, its all good.

but we should start with something more basic where we can learn from it.

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What would be the chance of a probabilistic forecast scenario? I know most like deterministic...

but for longer range... forecast especially for a contest that has a deadline that might cover many days, I feel a probabilistic forecast scheme might more conducive for that type of contest?

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