OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I have six inches of water in a 24 inch concrete hard pack, I seriously doubt vaporize will enter the equation. Humidity levels and dews are low on the forecast so called torch days. This is a funny thread, the guys are trying to panic Kevin. Milford had 6.78" SWE on the ground on Sunday. You aren't going to lose that and 25" of snow in a few days with low humidity and no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 i dont know how warm its going to get for you guys so i cant say for sure. i dont think the models are clear yet either. The Mets should post real numbers, dew points etc they forecast, somethings amiss with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 The Mets should post real numbers, dew points etc they forecast, somethings amiss with the Euro. I'd like to see some calls for how warm folks think it will get.. Typically these torch airmasses are always underforecast by models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 57 Thursday...61 Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Kevin, deal. Heavy Heavy beer for me and Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Kevin, deal. Heavy Heavy beer for me and Phil. Good chance you lose... hope i lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Good chance you lose... hope i lose 36" down to 8" of snow??? That would be an epic epic torch. And you're not measuring some sun torched area either. Unless somehow we torch from Wednesday through Saturday with a soaking rainstorm, but I don't see that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I have no concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Kevin, you will have at least 14" of snowpack left... la-la-la-lock it up IMBY 46F Thursday 49F Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I got about 30" OTG don't think I've lost anything to melting in the past two weeks. My snow has turned into icebergs.. also a 2" layer of sleet and ice on the top. Quite indestructible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'm looking at 2' or so everywhere. I know this will sound almost sacrilegious but I've got to get my driveway cleared by the end of the month for our party. If I don't, I will have serious parking issues. I'm hoping that I get a few days of soft snow that is lower than the snowblower intake, where I can blow the stuff off into oblivion. Right now I've got some serious deep banks that will need a front loader to deal with, and that's something I'm not going to pay for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I can almost guarantee something like this will happen. 26" on average now. My side of the street will have 15" of crusty brown snow, across the street will have a few patches of snow here and there. Although if the 12z Euro is right with only a 1.5 day torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 If you had 36" two days ago, its probably like 33" now. I had 33-34" before that event on Tuesday morning and it went up to around 36" but its back down to 32-33" now. But I'd be surprised if it went below 16" by next Saturday. There really isn't a big mechanism for torching this off unless we can get a high dewpoint 3 day assault...but it looks more like a dryish airmass in the low 50s for only a day or two....could trend back warmer though but even then, it won't be enough to get close to 8" except some torched south facing areas near busy streets that will likely get some bare patches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Took some new measurements in 5 different areas around the yard, There's 32-34 inches OTG Anyone know what the co-op in Staffordville is reporting OTG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Took some new measurements in 5 different areas around the yard, There's 32-34 inches OTG Anyone know what the co-op in Staffordville is reporting OTG? Congrats on keeping it through the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like Staffordville has 30" OTG...but I hate these maps since a lot of coops don't report and there's large gaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Congrats on keeping it through the torch. Dude if we go say from Thursday -Sat morning above freezing with highs in the 50's and lows upper 30's..it'll be tough to keep more than 6-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Dude if we go say from Thursday -Sat morning above freezing with highs in the 50's and lows upper 30's..it'll be tough to keep more than 6-8 inches No... you will still have a bunch. 16-20" I think. All of the cold air coming off the giant piles will save you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 No... you will still have a bunch. 16-20" I think. All of the cold air coming off the giant piles will save you No way//Euro is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 No way//Euro is ugly Why are surface temps so much cooler than one would expect on the Euro long range? Euro right beyond d10 gets interesting. You will end up with about a foot of glacier but it could be more if the Euro is right on low level pesky cold during the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Why are surface temps so much cooler than one would expect on the Euro long range? Euro right beyond d10 gets interesting. You will end up with about a foot of glacier but it could be more if the Euro is right on low level pesky cold during the torch. Jerry..Euro has 60's next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Jerry..Euro has 60's next Friday It does not. Taking their printout of 2m temps, the 18Z temp on Friday for you is mid 40s. Signalling a pretty big inversion and other models suggest the same. I think the bigger worry is right as the cold comes back in, the gradient increases allowing full mixing and unless the front blows through, we could have a 36-48 hour mega torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Jerry..Euro has 60's next Friday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 It does not. Taking their printout of 2m temps, the 18Z temp on Friday for you is mid 40s. Signalling a pretty big inversion and other models suggest the same. I think the bigger worry is right as the cold comes back in, the gradient increases allowing full mixing and unless the front blows through, we could have a 36-48 hour mega torch. Violently disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Euro ensembles however torch us late week and get it over with more or less. Either way, close your eyes and it will be over before your know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Violently disagree Friday could be near 60 in spots, but as I posted..the euro tries to break up the torch. I hope so because the GFS decided to extend the torch by 24 hours..making the bet more dicey for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Friday could be near 60 in spots, but as I posted..the euro tries to break up the torch. I hope so because the GFS decided to extend the torch by 24 hours..making the bet more dicey for me. Yeah..but if it's near 60 in spots...it's not going to be near 60 at 980 ft in Tolland, correct? It will be near 60 in the CT River Valley and from me to Bob in SE Mass. I can't see the ECMWF vertical profiles...but I'm assuming mixing isn't that great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Yeah..but if it's near 60 in spots...it's not going to be near 60 at 980 ft in Tolland, correct? It will be near 60 in the CT River Valley and from me to Bob in SE Mass. I can't see the ECMWF vertical profiles...but I'm assuming mixing isn't that great... It looked like the gradient may be enough and we could have some mixing, but I can't see the profiles either. It's still kind of a messy depiction later next week, with sneaky fronts and all that good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Friday could be near 60 in spots, but as I posted..the euro tries to break up the torch. I hope so because the GFS decided to extend the torch by 24 hours..making the bet more dicey for me. Believe me..I want you to be right..and for me to be 100% wrong. This is one bet i am praying I lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Yeah..but if it's near 60 in spots...it's not going to be near 60 at 980 ft in Tolland, correct? It will be near 60 in the CT River Valley and from me to Bob in SE Mass. I can't see the ECMWF vertical profiles...but I'm assuming mixing isn't that great... At 1,000 feet at my house...no it won't be 60..it'll be low-mid 50's..the bigger problem is not dropping below freezing at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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