bluewave Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 This winter we saw record breaking positive 500 mb height anomalies and snowfall associated with the amazing blocking pattern.Our snowfall window opened in late December when the PNA moved more toward a neutral to positive phase. Now the forecast is taking on more of a La Nina/-PDO look as the PNA goes negative. The forecast for the coming thaw looks like the February La Nina/-PDO composite. Forecast February Composite As we head into March,the composite looks more like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 For snow chances in March,we'll have to watch for an interval when the PNA moves back to near neutral or even positive. We would need to get lucky like we did back in March 2009,1967,and 1956 when were able get some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 For snow chances in March,we'll have to watch for an interval when the PNA moves back to near neutral or even positive. We would need to get lucky like we did back in March 2009,1967,and 1956 when were able get some decent snows. Nice post bluewave... we probably will get another noreaster in March but will it be cold enough for snow?...March 1996 had three storms that gave us over 4" of snow...the winter of 1954-55 had a post St. Patrick's Day snowfall...1956 also...1957 had a March 1st storm...56-57 had April storms also...1962 had the Ash Wednesday storm...1963 had a March 1st storm...1965 had a post St. Patrick's Day event...1967 had three late winter snowfalls...1968 had a March 1st snowfall...1971 had a March storm...1972 had two March events...1974 had a late March snowfall...1975 had a mid March event...1976 a wet snow event...March 1989 had an early snowfall...March 1999...March 2001...March 2009...I believe we will get at least one chance for a good snowfall in March based on these analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Nice post bluewave... we probably will get another noreaster in March but will it be cold enough for snow?...March 1996 had three storms that gave us over 4" of snow...the winter of 1954-55 had a post St. Patrick's Day snowfall...1956 also...1957 had a March 1st storm...56-57 had April storms also...1962 had the Ash Wednesday storm...1963 had a March 1st storm...1965 had a post St. Patrick's Day event...1967 had three late winter snowfalls...1968 had a March 1st snowfall...1971 had a March storm...1972 had two March events...1974 had a late March snowfall...1975 had a mid March event...1976 a wet snow event...March 1989 had an early snowfall...March 1999...March 2001...March 2009...I believe we will get at least one chance for a good snowfall in March based on these analogs... Thanks Uncle, I think that we'll have a shot also.It's at least encouraging to see that the SE Ridge usually flattens out in the means going into March compared to coming thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The next two weeks are looking painfully typical Nina, SE ridge, SW flow, almost a complete DEC, JAN reversal. What a weird winter, its almost like 1989 - 90, but on steroids snowise. I Could see a March storm, but that would be increasingly lucky with the Nina like pattern kicking in so late, it could verywell lag threw March with no snow. Still 50+ is pretty amazing and no one should complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The next two weeks are looking painfully typical Nina, SE ridge, SW flow, almost a complete DEC, JAN reversal. What a weird winter, its almost like 1989 - 90, but on steroids snowise. I Could see a March storm, but that would be increasingly lucky with the Nina like pattern kicking in so late, it could verywell lag threw March with no snow. Still 50+ is pretty amazing and no one should complain. I read on Rob Guarino's website that the Nina was already starting to weaken though so maybe that will be helpful come March?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 I read on Rob Guarino's website that the Nina was already starting to weaken though so maybe that will be helpful come March?? Right,we typically see the La Nina weaken heading into the spring like the forecasts are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 The next two weeks are looking painfully typical Nina, SE ridge, SW flow, almost a complete DEC, JAN reversal. What a weird winter, its almost like 1989 - 90, but on steroids snowise. I Could see a March storm, but that would be increasingly lucky with the Nina like pattern kicking in so late, it could verywell lag threw March with no snow. Still 50+ is pretty amazing and no one should complain. After the the thaw,it looks like the models want to move to flatten the SE Ridge somewhat around day 10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 After the the thaw,it looks like the models want to move to flatten the SE Ridge somewhat around day 10 or so. Looks like the -EPO comes back on the 18z GFS. Big overrunning snows at Day 11 with cold spilling into SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like the -EPO comes back on the 18z GFS. Big overrunning snows at Day 11 with cold spilling into SE Canada. It will be interesting to see how the Euro plays things out as we get closer to that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 doesnt look as promising as it did 4/5 days ago. but....still on the decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 After a brief "warm - up " mid to late next week winter 2010 - 2011 is going to make a big time comeback after the 20th especially along and north of 40N. There is going to be snow on the ground well into march and possibly april - ground temps are very cold and its been very difficult to melt this snow - ice pack -- in fact many roofs in the NYC metro area still have partial areas of snow on them even after a few mild days and rain....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Nice post bluewave... we probably will get another noreaster in March but will it be cold enough for snow?...March 1996 had three storms that gave us over 4" of snow...the winter of 1954-55 had a post St. Patrick's Day snowfall...1956 also...1957 had a March 1st storm...56-57 had April storms also...1962 had the Ash Wednesday storm...1963 had a March 1st storm...1965 had a post St. Patrick's Day event...1967 had three late winter snowfalls...1968 had a March 1st snowfall...1971 had a March storm...1972 had two March events...1974 had a late March snowfall...1975 had a mid March event...1976 a wet snow event...March 1989 had an early snowfall...March 1999...March 2001...March 2009...I believe we will get at least one chance for a good snowfall in March based on these analogs... Out of all the analogs, I would take March 1967. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 The next two weeks are looking painfully typical Nina, SE ridge, SW flow, almost a complete DEC, JAN reversal. What a weird winter, its almost like 1989 - 90, but on steroids snowise. I Could see a March storm, but that would be increasingly lucky with the Nina like pattern kicking in so late, it could verywell lag threw March with no snow. Still 50+ is pretty amazing and no one should complain. Some of the LR forecasts werent that far off. The NEG NAO was just much stronger than modeled for December and lasted into mid January-- while it was gone towards the end of December in 1989. Hence the much delayed warmup. We actually got the second HECS in an unfavorable pattern. We also wont go nearly as positive NAO as we did back in 1990-- because we arent in a positive NAO cycle. That's good because we saw some record warmth in Jan and Feb that year. Hopefully this March doesnt end up like 1990. We were in the mid to upper 80s in Mid March and somehow ended up getting 1-2 inches of snow in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 After a brief "warm - up " mid to late next week winter 2010 - 2011 is going to make a big time comeback after the 20th especially along and north of 40N. There is going to be snow on the ground well into march and possibly april - ground temps are very cold and its been very difficult to melt this snow - ice pack -- in fact many roofs in the NYC metro area still have partial areas of snow on them even after a few mild days and rain....... While this is possible, I wouldn't count on it. THere is no reason to expect the pattern to return to the way it was late december to very early february, that was a once a generation pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 While the 18z gfs did show some overrunning snow possibilities the pattern that were in now is no where near as good as it was dec/jan. There could be a chance for a storm for late feb./early march but it just doesn't look good at this time, I guess time will tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 While this is possible, I wouldn't count on it. THere is no reason to expect the pattern to return to the way it was late december to very early february, that was a once a generation pattern. So was February 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 So was February 2010. This really makes up for some of the snow droughts that we have experienced in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 While this is possible, I wouldn't count on it. THere is no reason to expect the pattern to return to the way it was late december to very early february, that was a once a generation pattern. Lol. This is absurd. 1995-96 was supposed to be once in a generation pattern as was 2000-01 and don't even get me started on the snow-filled El Nino years in the last 20 years or so that was also considered once in a generation patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Lol. This is absurd. 1995-96 was supposed to be once in a generation pattern as was 2000-01 and don't even get me started on the snow-filled El Nino years in the last 20 years or so that was also considered once in a generation patterns. We've been seeing snowier than normal patterns since 95-96, and particularly since 00-01. Living in Westchester for my entire life, I remember a distinct change in 00-01 towards winter becoming much more severe than in the 1990s, when winters were generally drab and mild with the exception of a couple of outstanding years. We began to regain the consistent cold and snowy when I started high school in time for Winter 02-03, and the last three seasons have delivered 170" of snowfall here in Dobbs Ferry including a massive arctic outbreak in January 2009 and all the cold weather this winter. I keep thinking, "It can't possible get better than this winter," and then it does. When we saw 68" of snowfall last year with slightly below normal temperatures, I thought it was a great winter for NYC metro and likely not to be repeated soon....well, this winter has blown 09-10 away with much colder temperatures, long duration of snowpack, three major snowstorms and an ice storm. And we're only in mid-February with a probably wintry pattern from 2/20 on into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 We've been seeing snowier than normal patterns since 95-96, and particularly since 00-01. Living in Westchester for my entire life, I remember a distinct change in 00-01 towards winter becoming much more severe than in the 1990s, when winters were generally drab and mild with the exception of a couple of outstanding years. We began to regain the consistent cold and snowy when I started high school in time for Winter 02-03, and the last three seasons have delivered 170" of snowfall here in Dobbs Ferry including a massive arctic outbreak in January 2009 and all the cold weather this winter. I keep thinking, "It can't possible get better than this winter," and then it does. When we saw 68" of snowfall last year with slightly below normal temperatures, I thought it was a great winter for NYC metro and likely not to be repeated soon....well, this winter has blown 09-10 away with much colder temperatures, long duration of snowpack, three major snowstorms and an ice storm. And we're only in mid-February with a probably wintry pattern from 2/20 on into early March. I agree 100%. Anyone saying extreme cold and snowy patterns are once in a generation occurrences/patterns haven't been paying attention the last 10-15 years. This year was actually the exact 15th anniversary of 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 We've been seeing snowier than normal patterns since 95-96, and particularly since 00-01. Living in Westchester for my entire life, I remember a distinct change in 00-01 towards winter becoming much more severe than in the 1990s, historical ave here is 27" since 1994: 30.4" since 2000: 31.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 And yet 2 of the least snowiest winters on record are in that period, imagine how much higher the average would be without 97-98 and 01-02 historical ave here is 27" since 1994: 30.4" since 2000: 31.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 And yet 2 of the least snowiest winters on record are in that period, imagine how much higher the average would be without 97-98 and 01-02 94-95, 96-97, 98-99, 06-07 and 07-08 were pretty putrid as well. 99-00 was hardly impressive also. I always believed that 92-93 was a turning point year for this region. Things have been better during winter for snow lovers since that winter more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Out of all the analogs, I would take March 1967. The other thing that I was looking at was the potential for cold. Roughly half of the analog years featured a top three daily coldest record for a least one day in March at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 At least the long range GFS forecast for the beginning of March looks like what you would expect to see from the March composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 the mean still has the trough in the west on March 1st, but 5/11 members have it in the east. When we can get that far out, we should take a look at the March 3-6 period, which is when Don says the pattern should change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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