Cornsnow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Until that band hits the wall of death Triad! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mst87 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Don't look now, but a deformation band has made its way out of the mountains, and is heading eastward! Yep I see that too! Maybe someone around here will get a quick little burst of moderate snow soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Precip hole in central NC comith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 KCHS disco breaking it down CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND TAPS INTO A RIBBON OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ADVECTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COUPLED 250MB JET STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY INITIATING SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DPVA/QG-FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO INCREASE POPS TO 90 PERCENT FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO P-TYPE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NARROWING DOWN ON THE DOMINATING P-TYPES CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERMAL PROFILES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR INLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR ALLENDALE...MONCKS CORNER AND WALTERBORO SHOW FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT BY SUNRISE WITH THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER HOLDING IN THE -15C RANGE COUPLED WITH RH NEAR 100 PERCENT IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS PROFILE IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF SNOW CRYSTALS WITH A GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF ICE NUCLEATION OCCURRING WITHIN THE CLOUD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN HYDROMETEORS BELOW 3000 FT WITH A NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER NOTED BETWEEN 1200-3000 FT. THIS THERMAL STRUCTURE TYPICALLY YIELDS A WIDE VARIETY OF P-TYPES WITH THE DOMINATING PHASE BEING MODULATED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION RATE. THE GFS/NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE CORE OF THE MOST INTENSE DEEP LAYERED OMEGA OCCURRING BETWEEN 5AM-9AM WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSING THROUGH AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT ANY POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR SLEET WILL OCCUR. ITS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE 09/12Z NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING FROM HAMPTON AND WALTERBORO NORTH TO FLORENCE COINCIDENT WITH A RIBBON OF NEGATIVE EPV ATOP IT. THIS INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR BANDED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW. ITS TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP...BUT ITS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL CONCERN AS IT COULD EASILY MODULATE THERMAL AND DYNAMIC PROFILES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH COULD EASILY PUSH ANY SNOW TOTALS INTO WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...WE HAVE OPTED TO TAKE A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. WILL HIGHLIGHT RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS WITH A RAIN OR SNOW WITH A CHANCE FOR SLEET FROM ROUGHLY 5AM-9AM...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A MILLEN-HAMPTON-WALTERBORO-JAMESTOWN LINE. RAIN WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS METTER-STATESBORO-YEMASSEE-NORTH CHARLESTON. ATTM WE BELIEVE ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND BELOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH A TRACE TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH BEING THE MOST PROBABLE ON MAINLY GRASSY SURFACES. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF MESOSCALE BANDING OCCURS...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT TO JUSTIFY HOISTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE ON THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST-EAST THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE COAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It looks like the storm is dying just in time, it almost made it to the Charlotte area aka the Bermuda Snow Triangle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Off topic but does anyone know why I have my location listed in my profile but it doesn't show up when I post? I see you've posted this several times. I think I saw it yesterday too. Basically you only have one place where you have listed a location "Four Letter Metar Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA): KCLT" That will show your weather obs but it will not show your location. To show your location you have to put it under the Location section in the profile. I hope that helps. Remember to click save. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You know it's not good for NC when this thread is nothing but Georgia folks posting. If you want snow these days, you either need to move to Georgia or the coast. What the heck does it take to get a healthy precip shield into Central NC anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 If you want snow these days, you either need to move to Georgia or the coast. What the heck does it take to get a healthy precip shield into Central NC anymore? A tropical storm or hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 RUC still shows a large area of moderate to heavy precip. of snow over the Atlanta materializing within the next hour or two. Can't wait :]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You have got to be kidding me! Mr.Super Conservative? Incidentally...rain just started...at least my moisture is not being used up moistening the column. I just watched him and man I have to say I think he might be reading this board because his forecast sounded awfully familiar to me..1 to 2 heaviest between i-20 and 85. Seriously though, they are pawning ffc by actually going against their own WWA. Saying isolated 3 inch totals from atlanta to athens. Pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looking at the radar this thing is drying up pretty quickly my way. Hopefully we can get some of that heavier precip to push through but its looking bleak right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Latest RUC through 9 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 If you want snow these days, you either need to move to Georgia or the coast. What the heck does it take to get a healthy precip shield into Central NC anymore? Try living in this area, the western part of Burgers Triangle in the Spring and Summer. You'd miss rain AND snow. Atleast most of NC gets rain usually (i know the drought this year there though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Not looking to good around these parts foothills. This thing is drying up pretty quickly. Maybe some of those heavier bands can push through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Mojo on my side tonight. Waiting on the inch of snow and this ol boy will retire to the bed a happy fellow. 'Oh yea, "How Bout Them Devils" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Mojo on my side tonight. Waiting on the inch of snow and this ol boy will retire to the bed a happy fellow. 'Oh yea, "How Bout Them Devils" They Did VERY Well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 A tropical storm or hurricane. Haha! True. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Try living in this area, the western part of Burgers Triangle in the Spring and Summer. You'd miss rain AND snow. Atleast most of NC gets rain usually (i know the drought this year there though). Yeah, you guys have been having a bad stretch in your neck of the woods. Hopefully at some point, we'll move out of this "drought every couple of years" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Try living in this area, the western part of Burgers Triangle in the Spring and Summer. You'd miss rain AND snow. Atleast most of NC gets rain usually (i know the drought this year there though). Yea for some reason it seem like it has taken forever to moisten up the atmosphere once you get east of the mountains this year. Looks like precip is evaporating at around 2700ft AGL. That has been progressively coming down but will take at least half an hour to make it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like the transfer is starting. Radar is drying up quick east of Atlanta. Without heavy accumulations, I just don't see how we can even get 1/2 inch here. I hope RUC is right. If not, this could end up being a bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yea for some reason it seem like it has taken forever to moisten up the atmosphere once you get east of the mountains this year. Looks like precip is evaporating at around 2700ft AGL. That has been progressively coming down but will take at least half an hour to make it to the ground. Same here in Cleveland County.. We have had returns for prob an hour or longer and not a flake here in Upper Cleveland.. Its not like we have ALOT of moisture to work with here anyways so any that is lost to virga is a bummer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I guess the atmosphere is going to moisten up enough for snow to fall about the time the back edge comes thru??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yea for some reason it seem like it has taken forever to moisten up the atmosphere once you get east of the mountains this year. Looks like precip is evaporating at around 2700ft AGL. That has been progressively coming down but will take at least half an hour to make it to the ground. the mid level front moved through 2 hours ago. Thats what killed it here in the lee. I was afraid of that and accounted for it on the call map I made. Perfectly bad timing to NOT snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 as soon as KCHS ramps up, they back off..... oh well, good night all NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --TONIGHT...A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED WARMER TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT...LEADING TO A LESS THAN FAVORABLE SCENARIO OF FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S HAVE ALSO KEPT SFC TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH LATEST MOS DATA NOW SUGGESTING WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT IT...SEE NO REASON BUT TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH COOLEST TEMPS OVER FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. LOWS WILL REACH AROUND 40 ALONG THE SC AND GA COASTS. A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR RAIN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE FROM A STRONG H25 JET WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND GEORGIA FIRST...THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE WARMER TREND IN PLACE...PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIP NEAR DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE INDICATED. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LOWERED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH 7 AM. SHOULD ANY ACCUMULATION OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OR TREES SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THURSDAY MORNING...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON. NARROWING DOWN ON THE DOMINATING P-TYPES CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FROZEN PRECIP FROM 7AM-9AM FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM MONKS CORNER SC TO WALTERBORO SC TO ROCKY FORD GA. HOWEVER...MOST PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE EVENT. ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND TREES...SHOULD ANY BANDED PRECIP OCCUR. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...WE HAVE OPTED TO TAKE A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. WILL HIGHLIGHT RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET/SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FROM 7AM-9AM...RAIN OR SNOW WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF A MILLEN-HAMPTON-WALTERBORO-JAMESTOWN LINE. RAIN WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS METTER-STATESBORO-YEMASSEE-NORTH CHARLESTON. ATTM WE BELIEVE ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND BELOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH A TRACE TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH BEING THE MOST PROBABLE ON MAINLY GRASSY SURFACES. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF MESOSCALE BANDING OCCURS...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO JUSTIFY HOISTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE ON THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Just pushed out fresh model output as of 05Z. Still seeing some additional accumulation of snow for the Atlanta area of 1.9", Cleveland, GA around 1", and Wilmington, NC is around 3/4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Big time devlopment along a Monroe - Albemarle - Wadesboro line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Heaviest bands are setting up south of Atlanta. Go figure lol. I'm sure their ratios are worst though, but not much worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 From my yard about 25 miles WNW of LaGrange, GA, pushing an inch and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 looks like a 1/4 inch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like about a tenth on the grass and that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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