Rankin5150 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 as Skip showed, the RUC simulation is showing the band of snow actually getting enhanced over northeast GA, western SC and southern NC between 3 and 7 am. Not sure I buy that, but its showing snow starting west of CLT around11 pm, then goes til 7 am, but does have a break of 1 or 2 hours in the foothills, then re-develops it strongly in northeast GA and western NC roughly the 85 corridor from just north of Athens to Charlotte. But its a model that has variations like this from one hour to the next, but I noticed on the surface map a surface low in Miss. and also the strong warm advection at 850 in northern GA for a long period tonight, where the barbs are pointing right into the southern Apps, but are much more westerly east of there, which is odd, unless its seeing some kind of 5H interaction with the sfc low and the mtn chain around that region. Something to watch. Good catch Beanskip!! This is starting to remind me more and more of Jan 2003. NOT SAYING it will happen at all, but the start time and the set up then is kinda like this one. Hoping to eek out 2" to say it overperformed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 So, Mets, this is NOT a IMBY question..... Us Coasties, including (WeatherNC), we were NOT supposed to see rain today, but yet, with the nne flow, brought us rain onto to coastal sections of nc/SC. Come on CT, why are you dragging me into this, met questions set a bad precedence to the newer members in that they think it is ok to ask and orinete as such. While this looks to be a minor event and traffic is not really high, some get the impression it is ok and next time we deal with this issue all over again, 5-10 fold. Also, we don't have to many regular mets here in E NC, Jaydog could answer it but not sure if he is on, or as the time as some Mets just don't. Furthermore, some members while not as qualified could give you the same accurate response with and asking the question outright, beats directing it towards a specific target which is a no no... Event is unfolding similar to what the GFS ens members and SREF NMM members have been showing over the past 24 hrs. Nothing in that sense, QPF and thermal profiles seems out of whack at this point. You are going to see three areas of enhanced lift come through over the next 18 hrs, with the first two being the heavier precip makers. First batch is overhead, and will likely persist till around 12am. This is associated with the initial coastal development and should be all RN for ILM and the Crystal Coast/Grand Strand, and all of ENC for that matter. Second batch, and yes there should be a break between the two, even if for an hour or so, comes in between 1-4am with the shaky handoff and sig coastal development exiting stage right. That is likely to be to your north, in the central Coastal Plain and Inner Banks. Anything you get from that would likely be RN, as areas even towards Jacksonville and New Bern should not changeover till after daybreak. Last batch, and what looks like a frontal passage comes through after sunrise. Do not pin your hopes on this one as it is a classic example of the coastal being too far offshore by then to enhance an Atlantic influx. That is the chance for ILM, anything after say 8am could be SN, not trying to be a butt about in, based on objective reasoning from all available information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 NWS had me at 1-3" 2 hours ago, now I'm at less than an inch tonight and less than 1/2" tomorrow. Why are they downgrading how much we're getting now....I thought it was looking a little better for us here. Any explanations? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.81042078374208&lon=-83.42742919921875&site=gsp&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 snowing lightly in West Asheville right now and wind has picked up airport showing 36 but is 32.9 at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 latest ruc (23z) has the precip hanging around e ga and the upstate well into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Am I crazy in my thinking to think that we will not have to lose as much precip to evap cooling due to our surface temps being cooler than those in Alabama? We are at 39 / 24 here in Dacula. So my thinking is that when the moisture gets here, we wont take that long to get down to business? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'd be weary of following the RUC like gospel. I've noticed that it has a tendency to hang precipitation around too long, so I tend to shave a few hours off however long it shows echoes over an area. I noticed this especially during the Christmas Storm when it showed the precip continuing until noon when, in reality, it wrapped up by 7 AM, or so. It's a good model in the short-range, but it isn't perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Light snow/ sleet coming down.... Things could get interesting here in Elizabeth City, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Guys can we keep the obvs in the obvs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Pretty heavy precip/snow in alabama right now. Not really seeing any signs of it weakening yet on radar. Should be some snow coming into the state pretty shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Guys can we keep the obvs in the obvs thread? Where is the obs thread? I didn't see one on the main page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Guys can we keep the obvs in the obvs thread? Good point. Guys there is a thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Where is the obs thread? I didn't see one on the main page. At the top, It's pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Where is the obs thread? I didn't see one on the main page. right here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Good luck GA I would be pretty psyched if this was one state over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Interesting image from the 23z RUC at 12 hours: Compare the 23z RUC with the latest radar loops. You can see a sw/ne band setting up out of thin air right where the RUC has that strip of heavy qpf painted. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?radar_us+/2h/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Light snow being reported in Elijay and Cleaveland, GA Get your act together and read the posts above 316 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Good luck GA I would be pretty psyched if this was one state over not if you have seen it before, and the precip really does lighten up quickly before reaching the eastern part of the state. although i am really hoping it makes it. it wouldnt take but 25-50 miles for mby (unfortunately a bit more for yours ) Get your act together and read the posts above 316 i will admit it was confusing briefly. i saw the obs thread, then went back and it was gone. its been so long since we had anything pinned i didnt see it up there for a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Pretty heavy precip/snow in alabama right now. Not really seeing any signs of it weakening yet on radar. Should be some snow coming into the state pretty shortly. If that lovely looking bands to our west are really going to fade, it thus far is showing absolutely no signs of any weakening. Dang the models, settling in for another all nighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 not if you have seen it before, and the precip really does lighten up quickly before reaching the eastern part of the state. although i am really hoping it makes it. it wouldnt take but 25-50 miles for mby (unfortunately a bit more for yours ) I'm willing it towards you! Looking at the 00z RUC I would say the precip is a little under done at initialization but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Pretty heavy precip/snow in alabama right now. Not really seeing any signs of it weakening yet on radar. Should be some snow coming into the state pretty shortly. This is at the space station in Huntsville, been like this for 45minutes straight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo_fran Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 LGD. GTHCGTH. Congrats on the flakes. Light snow/ sleet coming down.... Things could get interesting here in Elizabeth City, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 If the new RUC is to be believed, the moisture just explodes all over SC. It wouldn't be a half bad event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Latest RUC says win for CLT? http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011021000&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Latest RUC says win for CLT? http://ruc.noaa.gov/...ain=full&wjet=1 Looks like 20-25dbz moisture per the 6hr. frame. That would match with my thoughts about some areas seeing slightly heavier banding develop along 85 from GSP-CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 If that lovely looking bands to our west are really going to fade, it thus far is showing absolutely no signs of any weakening. Dang the models, settling in for another all nighter. Indeed. That is some really impressive precip south of BHM and it's heading straight for atlanta and up 85 if it holds together. Could be the start of one of those mesoscale bands we have been talking about. Indeed, the latest ruc seems to have caught on to it with up to 0.25 amounts all the way here. By far the highest amounts it has shown here so far. This is at the space station in Huntsville, been like this for 45minutes straight!! Nice, hope to see that here later tonight. Although I do wish it would be earlier (or morning). I love snow but having the best of it move through between 2 and 5am sort of sucks. not if you have seen it before, and the precip really does lighten up quickly before reaching the eastern part of the state. although i am really hoping it makes it. it wouldnt take but 25-50 miles for mby (unfortunately a bit more for yours ) Yep, we have seen many a system die at the georgia border. Seriously, it's almost spooky sometimes seeing a wall of rain (or snow) hit the ga border and just die. It's happened so many times. i will admit it was confusing briefly. i saw the obs thread, then went back and it was gone. its been so long since we had anything pinned i didnt see it up there for a while lol Yeah I figured I'd throw you all a curve ball Some had requested though and being the nice guy I am, I obliged lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I call your attention to the radar in S. GA Not the stuff in BMX headed towards MBY, but the stuff down near Albany / Tifton. Don't know what that means down stream but I am impressed with the radar given the GFS solution from days gone by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Light rain here in KRWI. Temp of 41. Really want that north wind to start blowing to drive the dewpoint down some. DP is 28 right now. Not looking good for the wet bulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 If the new RUC is to be believed, the moisture just explodes all over SC. It wouldn't be a half bad event. But will temps be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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