FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ok Thanks. I really hope we can squeeze out an inch. if we can get a short period of time where the rates are good, we could do it . However, if the rates are too light and spotty, then I don't think we'd get much more than a dusting. Only time will tell I guess. It would be nice if the precip would stay on a ne trajectory but with time its becoming more westerly for us, which probably means it wouldn't snow here for too long. The earlier it arrives, the better I think to avoid the westerly incoming flow which is showing up strongly in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 if we can get a short period of time where the rates are good, we could do it . However, if the rates are too light and spotty, then I don't think we'd get much more than a dusting. Only time will tell I guess. It would be nice if the precip would stay on a ne trajectory but with time its becoming more westerly for us, which probably means it wouldn't snow here for too long. The earlier it arrives, the better I think to avoid the westerly incoming flow which is showing up strongly in TN. The latest RUC radar reflection to me looked like it had a decent band lifting NE through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The radar started looking bad for here in a hurry. If we can get an inch, I'll be happy, but I have my doubts. Just noticed this. Not a good setup for us! http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Just noticed this. Not a good setup for us! http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php See the strong band of green? Thats the really heavy band that went through Nashville a couple of hours ago. This thing means business and if It can make it to the mountains it could drop some significant precipitation rates in a very short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 See the strong band of green? Thats the really heavy band that went through Nashville a couple of hours ago. This thing means business and if It can make it to the mountains it could drop some significant precipitation rates in a very short time. That's my hope. I'm surprised the returns we have are producing some flakes, so some real returns may stand to be productive. At least there are no temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Me too. It's been amazing. Some of these stations were 48 to 50 degrees 3 to 4 hours ago, cooled to about 43 to 45 (with dewpoints only in the low to mid 20s)when the precip (rain/snow) started and within an hour they were 32/33 and snow. I haven't looked that hard at eastern nc soundings beyond rdu but assuming you are using kpgv, soundings look cold enough if there is steady precip. I don't think anyone should trust the ruc on surface temps, it's almost always too warm and because of that it's precip type forecasts are going to be wrong. Similar to the RUC with warmer temps, we all have a bias towards are area in that we know it better, disco is easier with familiarity... The RUC has been known to have a warm bias in setups like this, the Christmas/day after event and the OBX mini blizzard are two examples this winter. Even during the Dec 26th storm here, I was concerned looking at the RUC trend the 850 line north of here at onset and wondering if we would stay all SN, which we did. Actually had an IP shower pass through about 30 mins ago, was not expecting it with temps in the low 40's and dp of 25. The RUC was a good 2-3C off at 850 last March, think it was around the 3rd. This event, while different synoptically actually has some parallels in the forecasted thermal profiles. We are dependent on a changeover, if and when that happens will have sig implications on amounts, from <1" - 4"+. Most times it does not work out and that is why I am entering this one with extreme caution, as the RUC soundings at 6z look nothing like the 12z Euro soundings, or even 18z GFS for that matter. Euro verbatim is all SN, but likely busted on the low side with QPF given radar in SE NC. GFS seems a little wet, which is kind of odd, but still supports a changeover around 1am, with nonogram p-type in the measurable SN with rain category from the get go. RUC says we will be lucky to changeover before daybreak, yeah, not buying that based on more reliable support. Would be nice to see a widespread 1-2" event for the SE out of this one, to polish off the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I would be excited if i lived in north central alabama. They will probably get a solid 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like I'm going to finally get my storm in East Central Alabama... missed out a month ago and only got a light dusting on Christmas. NWS calling for 2-3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like I'm going to finally get my storm in East Central Alabama... missed out a month ago and only got a light dusting on Christmas. NWS calling for 2-3 here. Good deal Brent! I am pulling hard for the home team! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottL Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It is now snowing in Birmingham, surface temp is 38 degrees. It may also be snowing in Tuscaloosa, METAR reports "unknown precipitation" and 37 degrees. To the north of Birmingham, Cullman is now snowing and 30. Snowing just north of Meridian, MS, 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Interesting image from the 23z RUC at 12 hours: it probably won't be a factor in this setup, the northern stream is moving too fast. But it looks like precip should arrive a little earlier than I thought, probably before midnight now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 See the strong band of green? Thats the really heavy band that went through Nashville a couple of hours ago. This thing means business and if It can make it to the mountains it could drop some significant precipitation rates in a very short time. I noticed GSP upped us from 1-2" to 1-3" for toninght. Would love to sneak 3" out of this what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 looks like a decent call right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Interesting image from the 23z RUC at 12 hours: Close enough to me...really feels like someone might get lucky to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Interesting image from the 23z RUC at 12 hours: then again, there could easily be a meso type of enhancement. The RUC has been showing that for a few frames around nw SC to western NC (85 corridor). Theres a pretty strong 5h Vort coming across southern Tn now near MEM and thats progged to pass right over us, which could do *something* but I wouldn't bank on anything either. I've got virga now, pretty early I think. This system is on the move. I think it will all be out of this region by 5 am, probably much sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 looks like a decent call right now Looks pretty good Kevin. There are reports of snow falling in central Alabama with temps at 40F to 42F. Amazing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Interesting image from the 23z RUC at 12 hours: That looks awesome hope it holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 39 degrees here in Athens Ga. If the moisture can stay together, we may get 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Dont hog all of the snow this time Dixie. I dont want all of the sleet like Tony! Not all, just most of the sleet I'm out cooking on the grill and looking at the moon and stars. YOu sure something is headed this way? Seems like there should be clouds what with virga crossing into Ga T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 this thing better slow down or aint too much of anybody getting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Light snow was reported in Sylva, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 And our area Eastern Rutherford Western Cleveland is great place for that Good catch Skip... then again, there could easily be a meso type of enhancement. The RUC has been showing that for a few frames around nw SC to western NC (85 corridor). Theres a pretty strong 5h Vort coming across southern Tn now near MEM and thats progged to pass right over us, which could do *something* but I wouldn't bank on anything either. I've got virga now, pretty early I think. This system is on the move. I think it will all be out of this region by 5 am, probably much sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 And our area Eastern Rutherford Western Cleveland is great place for that Good catch Skip... It could be. That band set up around us and then moved due east across the southern half of NC and northern SC. But the odd thing was just how late it developed it. Not sure I buy it. The radar does look pretty good for us so far, so think we'll get into a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Light snow here in Glenville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 So, Mets, this is NOT a IMBY question..... Us Coasties, including (WeatherNC), we were NOT supposed to see rain today, but yet, with the nne flow, brought us rain onto to coastal sections of nc/SC. The AFD disco's *constantly* have mentioned that We would have to have a saturated atmosphere, with needed, slight to heavy decent precip rates to "cool" the column off, in order to get, Sn, wasting alot of Precip in doing so, thus little to NO acclumation's... Due to the fact the atmosphere isn't "saturated",,, though now it is, WE have rain, quite a bit, i might add, slowly dropping the temps. (Now setting @ 43.8), and this is several hours before "Game time"... So what gives here? WSW hoisted just a few miles to My west, north, and eastwards to-wards MHX. So we'll have the "dynamics" in place, plenty of Lift, and NO Sn? As noted upstream,(AL/Miss etc), temps dropped into the 30's or below under this system about to converge on us here, dropping tons of Sn. Plus this supposed transfer of energy to the Coast.... What gives? Sry, i'm just courious..... edit added current radar, for KLIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Whoops, I should have posted that in the obs thread. Sorry folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 925 850 Nice and cold. Would love to have a large slug of moisture rock us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Just watching the radar, it looks like some precip is trying to form over central NC ahead of the main shield. Maybe that's what the RUC is picking up on? I hope it's an interesting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 as Skip showed, the RUC simulation is showing the band of snow actually getting enhanced over northeast GA, western SC and southern NC between 3 and 7 am. Not sure I buy that, but its showing snow starting west of CLT around11 pm, then goes til 7 am, but does have a break of 1 or 2 hours in the foothills, then re-develops it strongly in northeast GA and western NC roughly the 85 corridor from just north of Athens to Charlotte. But its a model that has variations like this from one hour to the next, but I noticed on the surface map a surface low in Miss. and also the strong warm advection at 850 in northern GA for a long period tonight, where the barbs are pointing right into the southern Apps, but are much more westerly east of there, which is odd, unless its seeing some kind of 5H interaction with the sfc low and the mtn chain around that region. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 38f and moderate rain in New Bern, again,,,, almost felt warm in the sun today around 4pm. 10% of 4"+ of snow? lOL@HPC...... Clouds sure did rush in here in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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