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Feb 9-10 Observations


strongwxnc

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You seen any yet? Nothing here.

VERY LIGHT flurries. Having to use my 2 million candle light to make sure I was not weenie hallucinating. The cloud deck looks like it is about to burst any minute though. Here is an AFD from GSP .

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --RADAR SHOWS SNOW RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AS

BAROCLINIC LEAF MOVES IN. THIS IS DRIVEN BY A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER

JET THAT ARE MOVING IN AS WELL. EXPECT SNOW COVERAGE TO INCREASE

FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SLEET AS THE

AIR COLUMN COOLS. GUIDANCE SHOWS QG FORCING TO REACH ITS MAX OVER

THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THERE IS NO REAL ISENTROPIC LIFT

OVERNIGHT. BEST H FRONTOGENESIS MOVES TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE IS

QUITE A BIT OF H85 TO H5 LAYER FRONTOGENESIS. THE 18Z GUIDANCE HAD

SHIFTED BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE 21Z

SREF HAS RETURNED TO SHOWING MEAN SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OVER

THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER

THE MTNS WITH 0.5 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE LOWEST AMOUNTS

OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE QPF WILL BE LEAST AND THE MOST OVER THE

SRN CWFA BORDER WHERE THE BETTER QPF AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXISTS.

HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON GIVEN THE CURRENT

CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

They think we are still in the game for 1-2"

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So you Georgia ground truthers are starting, and staying snow. No rain at onset at all?

40 and dry with pregnant clouds overhead here.

Started at 42F at 6:40. Snow began "sprinkling" down at 8:50 w/temp at 38F. Took until 10:00 and the snow began increasing in intensity with large, moderate flakes flying and now, has become HEAVY! I need the temp to drop just a wee bit more and we are in business. Never any rain or sleet.

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Starting to see the UL forcing come in per the RAH site, area of enhanced lift west of FAY with the main 700mb fronto sliding ese from near Danville VA. Going to be a learning experience here, as even the seasoned experts have no idea how this will unfold given no clear cut past examples. This almost resembles a clipper more-so than a Gulf or Atl low.

post-382-0-80121000-1297308552.png

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