CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Snap out of it. Plenty of winter to come, that will restore your snow pack, and surpass your previous peak! The summer of 2009 and winter of the 09-10 was when I really bottomed out in weather depression. Since then, we had a classic summer scorchah, and decent hurricane season to follow, and now an amazing streak of winter storms. Probably can lock in a Cat III over GON by Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I just wish we could have held the cold/snowy pattern in until the end of Feb. By then it's March..and March snows are fun..but don't have the same feel that Dec and Jan snowfalls have. I think we are going to have to rely more on a -EPO pattern after next week. I don't see any real signal for a -nao for now. Seems kind of neutral. And yes, your snow will last. It's a 2 to 2.5 day torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think we are going to have to rely more on a -EPO pattern after next week. I don't see any real signal for a -nao for now. Seems kind of neutral. And yes, your snow will last. It's a 2 to 2.5 day torch. Over/under for you. Actually let me start an over /under snow loss thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 When do you think things get snowy/cold again? the week of the 20th or not until March? Probably not really until March. But as model guidance has sporadically shown, there are Miller B threats to be had in this pattern, as s/w's amplify in NW flow, downstream of the ridge axis, and around the periphery of the PV. What I'd really like to see is for ridging to amplify into the EPO domain, and the western trough move more on shore sliding downstream ridging to the southeast, to put us in territory favorable for SWFE ... which are usually more reliable than hoping for low pressure to redevelop south of Cape Cod and intensify, 6 hours faster than models show. With a weak -NAO, that is dominated by overall below normal heights, we can deal with a -PNA, but a -EPO would could begin a new legit snowy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Over/under for you. Actually let me start an over /under snow loss thread That's almost impossible to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Probably can lock in a Cat III over GON by Labor Day. la la la lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 That's almost impossible to guess. not very many of us want warmth in the heart of winter...but if it's going to be mild...hopefully we at least have sunshine so it's nice out....which is how it looks right now at least. not really interested in showers/fog/drizzle and mid to upper 40s. we'll get enough of that in april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 not very many of us want warmth in the heart of winter...but if it's going to be mild...hopefully we at least have sunshine so it's nice out....which is how it looks right now at least. not really interested in showers/fog/drizzle and mid to upper 40s. we'll get enough of that in april. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ha-ha, not many people use 'swamp yankee' anymore. Love it. Swamp Yankees do not live in hills though. Miss that term, some of my best weather knowledge has been garnered from Swamp Yankees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Snap out of it. Plenty of winter to come, that will restore your snow pack, and surpass your previous peak! The summer of 2009 and winter of 09-10 was when I really bottomed out in weather depression. Since then, we had a classic summer scorchah, and decent hurricane season to follow, and now an amazing streak of winter storms. Happens every year around this time, the 4 phases of winter-death kick in: shock - anger - depression - acceptance. The fact of the matter is ... winter has a lease, and every year nearing February 15, when the collective photo-receptors of the community senses the solar power of a sunny day, it is a reminder, unpleasant for those obsessed for winter, that the lease is nearing. Some years squaters win out and it all lingers until Easter - but those are rarer years and one would be fool hardy to have expectations for that. Since we are on the subject of subjective reproach to the weather: I personally don't like that very much, anyway. I want the bandaide to come off quickly - so to speak. Last year was wonderful in this regard. Best relay into Spring and onward to summer, ever! When it was over, that was it, and there were even plenty of opportunities for outdoor activities once the floods of early March left the area. For me, it takes me about 1.5 days to let go and begin reminiscence for the new season. 5 days ago when the indexes started this run, and the deterministic solutions stopped pumping out storms every 4 days, and knowing we were burrowing our way deeper into February, I almost immediately got the feeling we were cooked. I pretty much rushed through those first 2-3 phases, and have accepted the notion that storms are going to be less frequent (not necessarily seasonally, but just because of the pattern), and that this is probably going to steal the end of our winter away. Still believe that the first post is good, and that transitioning temperature trends will play out, but the strong -PNA and only modest -NAO signal out in time should keep things rather progressive and well ...boring for lack of better word. On a more objective note, however - it is only February 10th, and with March being still a plausibly active month, obviously there is time for another run with winter. It is just that for those looking for that, the indexes right now are not really in your corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah that's what concerns me, the battle lines should be real close to sne. I do think the sneaky cold will make it in here from time to time anyways, but not sure if it will be transient..or will it be able to have some staying power. It could be a very snowy pattern for NNE and se Canada, but SNE could be in the mix too, if that boundary can stay south. IMO, it's too close to call right now, especially with no clear blocking signal. just as it could be snowy in SNE in NNE/CNE and canada, it could also be sloppy and rainy. its a very delicate pattern as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Happens every year around this time, the 4 phases of winter-death kick in: shock - anger - depression - acceptance. The fact of the matter is ... winter has a lease, and every year nearing February 15, when the collective photo-receptors of the community senses the solar power of a sunny day, it is a reminder, unpleasant for those obsessed for winter, that the lease is nearing. Some years squaters win out and it all lingers until Easter - but those are rarer years and one would be fool hardy to have expectations for that. Since we are on the subject of subjective reproach to the weather: I personally don't like that very much, anyway. I want the bandaide to come off quickly - so to speak. Last year was wonderful in this regard. Best relay into Spring and onward to summer, ever! When it was over, that was it, and there were even plenty of opportunities for outdoor activities once the floods of early March left the area. For me, it takes me about 1.5 days to let go and begin reminiscence for the new season. 5 days ago when the indexes started this run, and the deterministic solutions stopped pumping out storms every 4 days, and knowing we were burrowing our way deeper into February, I almost immediately got the feeling we were cooked. I pretty much rushed through those first 2-3 phases, and have accepted the notion that storms are going to be less frequent (not necessarily seasonally, but just because of the pattern), and that this is probably going to steal the end of our winter away. Still believe that the first post is good, and that transitioning temperature trends will play out, but the strong -PNA and only modest -NAO signal out in time should keep things rather progressive and well ...boring for lack of better word. On a more objective note, however - it is only February 10th, and with March being still a plausibly active month, obviously there is time for another run with winter. It is just that for those looking for that, the indexes right now are not really in your corner. Poor dt...he was right but it'll take another month before people will admit it. Nice day out there today. Sun is out it's a out 30 degrees and winters back is broken. Gfs was too far south at 72 hrs my guess is long term it was dropping things too far south (cold air) too. Mankinis and coppertone ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 1-3" type deal with the clipper on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 1-3" type deal with the clipper on the GFS. I didn't even look. For NNE right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think people forget that February is the snowiest month for many, especially south of BOS. This milder stretch is merely a product of the pattern change and not solar inclination or anything like that. In fact, February is usually the month I look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 i dont think it will warm up as much as some say for next week in sne area. Then cold will return last week of feb into march . I say that we will likely have two or three snowstorms between now into march . I mean over 8 inches . I wouldn't be surprise if get blizzard in march . The snow on the ground in sne wont melt that fast as some think. you can get good snowstorms in march and April . I think will add another 20 inches of snowfall before april this year in sne area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think people forget that February is the snowiest month for many, especially south of BOS. This milder stretch is merely a product of the pattern change and not solar inclination or anything like that. In fact, February is usually the month I look forward to. True, but the difference is that if the pattern is against you, the solar ain't helpin - I think that's really the point of including that, and to also elucidate that early signs of seasonal migraiton are there. Over the last week, birds are now lighting up the morning air waves at dawn outside my windows. Chirping like crazy I just hope we don't swing back into a mad -NAO block in 5 weeks. That would be just about perfectly wrong for my personal wants lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 True, but the difference is that if the pattern is against you, the solar ain't helpin - I think that's really the point of including that, and to also elucidate that early signs of seasonal migraiton are there. Over the last week, birds are now lighting up the morning air waves at dawn outside my windows. Chirping like crazy I just hope we don't swing back into a mad -NAO block in 5 weeks. That would be just about perfectly wrong for my personal wants lol Would that be enough to drive you to tip the chair.and hang freely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 True, but the difference is that if the pattern is against you, the solar ain't helpin - I think that's really the point of including that, and to also elucidate that early signs of seasonal migraiton are there. I just hope we don't swing back into a mad -NAO block in 5 weeks. That would be just about perfectly wrong for my personal wants lol I'm more worried about April and May. Wouldn't that be a disaster. But then again, it would be a true SNE spring. I do think the cold will sneak in during interludes and maybe even for a prolonged stretch. However, i just don't see a strong -nao signal for now..and think the hope is more towards a potential -EPO. We'll need it, as the se ridge will flex big time. Spring comes early for the Mid Atlantic perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think people forget that February is the snowiest month for many, especially south of BOS. This milder stretch is merely a product of the pattern change and not solar inclination or anything like that. In fact, February is usually the month I look forward to. Exactly which is why this protracted stinkfest that's been ongoing for a week and looks to last 1-2 more is devastating. But the sun angle doesn't help. The difference is night and day here. South facing fully exposed rooms need no heat on a sunny day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I didn't even look. For NNE right? I just looked at surface temps....touch warm south of CT/MA/RI line...but the precip is there here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I feel like we've been talking about the upcoming torch for weeks now. Amazing that 850s don't crack freezing here through 144 hours on the GFS. Seems it's not the torch potential that's really the problem... It's KU withdrawal. Maybe the clipper can serve as weenie methadone. Or maybe vitamin D deficiency causes depression and chair tipping. As someone mentioned, I hope we can get some sunny days coming up or March might really suck around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'm more worried about April and May. Wouldn't that be a disaster. But then again, it would be a true SNE spring. I do think the cold will sneak in during interludes and maybe even for a prolonged stretch. However, i just don't see a strong -nao signal for now..and think the hope is more towards a potential -EPO. We'll need it, as the se ridge will flex big time. Spring comes early for the Mid Atlantic perhaps. Exactly! I think it was the spring of 2001...maybe 2002...but it was May 20th and my buddies and I were heading into town for some burgers at the Pourhouse then billiards at Jillians - back before it became a teeny bopper gaming depot. Anyway the NAO was really in a tank and we had snow showers dumping 1.5" on Boston common - that's 1 month before the fricken summer solstice. In fact, on the 25th of either 2001 or 2002 (these did not happen on the same year) there was a coastal storm throwing noodles at 37F in Waltham, and I think ORH got 3" out of that. These two years of the early 2000's were the latest I recall ever seeing snow in the calendar year, and that includes the 15 years I was raised in western lower Michigan. That sucked...but actually, was kind of interesting for the shear absurdity of witnessing snow on those late dates - that recouped a little. What sucked....10 times more powerfully than a black whole into satans ass was that frickin 3 week long nor-easter from circa May 10 to June 5th of 2005!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Everyday was 48/42, and there were 3 or 4 nor-easters tucked into a 2.5 week long period where if it was not, it was drab chilly northeast diaharea in drizzle in between... There was a nasty -NAO block that evolved over the D. Straight in early May, and the locked in a semi-permanent closed low over the Del Marva, and every time it looked like it would fill, the polar stream would dump another turd into the OV that would re-energize the whole damn thing. It was powdered instant misery incarnate, just add water - OH Wait! it did - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 11 day threat on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Exactly! I think it was the spring of 2001...maybe 2002...but it was May 20th and my buddies and I were heading into town for some burger at the Pourhouse then billiards at Jillians - back before it became a teeny bopper gaming depot. Anyway the NAO was really in a tank and we had snow showers dumping 1.5" on Boston common - that's 1 month before the fricken summer solstice. In fact, on the 25th of either 2001 or 2002 (these did not happen on the same year) there was a coastal storm throwing noodles at 37F in Waltham, and I think ORH got 3" out of that. These two years of the early 2000's were the latest I recall ever seeing snow in the calendar year, and that includes the 15 years I was raised in western lower Michigan. That sucked...but actually, was kind of interesting for the shear absurdity of witnessing snow on those late dates - that recouped a little. What sucked....10 times more powerfully that a black whole into satans ass was that frickin 3 week long nor-easter from circa May 10 to June 5th of 2005!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Everyday was 48/42, and there were 3 or 4 nor-easterns tucked into a 2.5 week long period where if it was not, it was drab chilly northeast diaharea in drizzle... There was a nasty -NAO block that evolved over the D. Straight in early May, and the locked in a semi-permanent closed low over the Del Marva, and every time it looked like it would fill, the polar stream would dump a turd into the OV that would re-energize the whole damn thing. It was powdered instant misery incarnate, just add water - OH Wait! it did - Did you head for the car parked in the garage, close the door, turn the ignition on, put all the windows up, and close your eyes? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 11 day threat on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Did you head for the car parked in the garage, close the door, turn the ignition on, put all the windows up, and close your eyes? ? LOL. popped some Chris Isaak on the CD player... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Exactly! I think it was the spring of 2001...maybe 2002...but it was May 20th and my buddies and I were heading into town for some burgers at the Pourhouse then billiards at Jillians - back before it became a teeny bopper gaming depot. Anyway the NAO was really in a tank and we had snow showers dumping 1.5" on Boston common - that's 1 month before the fricken summer solstice. In fact, on the 25th of either 2001 or 2002 (these did not happen on the same year) there was a coastal storm throwing noodles at 37F in Waltham, and I think ORH got 3" out of that. These two years of the early 2000's were the latest I recall ever seeing snow in the calendar year, and that includes the 15 years I was raised in western lower Michigan. That sucked...but actually, was kind of interesting for the shear absurdity of witnessing snow on those late dates - that recouped a little. What sucked....10 times more powerfully that a black whole into satans ass was that frickin 3 week long nor-easter from circa May 10 to June 5th of 2005!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Everyday was 48/42, and there were 3 or 4 nor-easterns tucked into a 2.5 week long period where if it was not, it was drab chilly northeast diaharea in drizzle... There was a nasty -NAO block that evolved over the D. Straight in early May, and the locked in a semi-permanent closed low over the Del Marva, and every time it looked like it would fill, the polar stream would dump a turd into the OV that would re-energize the whole damn thing. It was powdered instant misery incarnate, just add water - OH Wait! it did - That was an unmitigated disaster of biblical proportions. Some very intense coastal flooding as well during the nor'easter around Memorial Day weekend. I stayed up for high tide that night and it was pretty intense...during May of all times.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Did you head for the car parked in the garage, close the door, turn the ignition on, put all the windows up, and close your eyes? ? I know what you are trying to do here; it's not going work - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I know what you are trying to do here; it's not going work - I just don't want you to get emotionally attached to the weather and it sounds like during that dark period of time...your emotions were too heavily involved and you let the dark, dreary springtime weather affect your mood..which is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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