Mr Torchey Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 18z gfs brings flakes to li and the south coast of ct ri se mass cape and island, probably virga, but yet again a tick nw. Virga storm already has started on okx, looks and feels like snow outside now with overcast skies, too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 18z gfs says we may have some snow flakes later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 HRRR also has flurries as far NW as PVD-BOS by late tonight, with light accumulating snow reaching MVY/ACK and the southern edge of the Cape. http://rapidrefresh....ain=full&wjet=1 A few of the 15z SREFs now have as much as 0.15-0.20" QPF for ACK: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I had a feeling you guys were busting on me or at least getting me riled up..I even asked Will if Phil and Scooter asked him to text me because he hates texting..so when i got a text from him out of the "clear blue" I knew something was going on. The Euro makes me sick to my stomach. I am devastated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I had a feeling you guys were busting on me or at least getting me riled up..I even asked Will if Phil and Scooter asked him to text me because he hates texting..so when i got a text from him out of the "clear blue" I knew something was going on. The Euro makes me sick to my stomach. I am devastated 2 days dude. I think your snow will survive..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 2 days dude. I think your snow will survive..lol. No it will be wiped out...I am just sick..absolutely sick. Heading for the river. Hopefully my car breaks thru the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 No it will be wiped out...I am just sick..absolutely sick. Heading for the river. Hopefully my car breaks thru the ice LOL, yeah yeah. At least we made you worry during the aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I had a feeling you guys were busting on me or at least getting me riled up..I even asked Will if Phil and Scooter asked him to text me because he hates texting..so when i got a text from him out of the "clear blue" I knew something was going on. The Euro makes me sick to my stomach. I am devastated I didn't know scooter had texted you until after...but it did make it kind of funny I have to admit. Tolland lapse rate should help though...maybe 57 or 58 instead of 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Man would I love to grab a few inches of snow later Sunday or Monday. I just think it may be too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I didn't know scooter had texted you until after...but it did make it kind of funny I have to admit. Tolland lapse rate should help though...maybe 57 or 58 instead of 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Man would I love to grab a few inches of snow later Sunday or Monday. I just think it may be too far north. We will take care of it here for ya...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 We will take care of it here for ya...... Send it south. 100 miles would benefit all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Low humidity on the Euro, reminds me of March 01 in Maine, five foot of snow and temps in the low 50 s one day, thought rivers would be running down the street but with humidity at 25 % it was edges only. Would be cool if the high torch days are very low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Heavy, heavy crusty ass snow out there. Can't wait to head N in 10 days. Back to your scheduled winter hiatus slumber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Low humidity on the Euro, reminds me of March 01 in Maine, five foot of snow and temps in the low 50 s one day, thought rivers would be running down the street but with humidity at 25 % it was edges only. Would be cool if the high torch days are very low humidity. It's a two day torch. Could be worse with 50's one day and 50's again with 2" of rain the next. It is what it is. At this point, I just want to get some storm chances to boost my snow total and keep the action going. I don't care how epic this past 6-8 weeks were. If we coast out like we did last year, that would be a disappointment and certainly not the winter of my life imo. I don't think it will happen like that, but I'm just saying...the good winters still kept on going through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Send it south. 100 miles would benefit all of us. Actually, I hope it goes out just underneath you guys down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I take it there's no radio show scheduled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It's a two day torch. Could be worse with 50's one day and 50's again with 2" of rain the next. It is what it is. At this point, I just want to get some storm chances to boost my snow total and keep the action going. I don't care how epic this past 6-8 weeks were. If we coast out like we did last year, that would be a disappointment and certainly not the winter of my life imo. I don't think it will happen like that, but I'm just saying...the good winters still kept on going through March. You are pretty young, hard to remember a winter like this and I am 54, constant thick snow cover which will still be here after the mini thaw. If you can throw me out some years where the cold and snow have been as deep and persistent maybe I will think again. I do not have any doubts at all, you seem to be implying otherwise,,that winter continues I am trying to see your reasoning for calling the upcoming depicted NAO as weak, today's Euro looks impressive plus the ridging poking up into Alaska is always a good sign, like others have stated the future pattern has a - EPO look to boot. Perhaps living now in the city has you perceiving things differently than your youth in the country. It has been and remains the most impressive winter so far of my life. I hit 100 inches in 96 but that was tainted by quick melts, numbers of inches of snow do not really reflect the season, if it never snows again then yea it would be a big letdown, kinda think that ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I don't think that Monday deal has any chance of giving SNE snow. Let's just enjoy the cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I don't think that Monday deal has any chance of giving SNE snow. Let's just enjoy the cold and dry Liking the break in the action, will be rejuvenated for a stretch run. Donnie baseball still thinking New England is below normal and above average snow for March. Saw a bunch of our pics on the digital snow museum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You are pretty young, hard to remember a winter like this and I am 54, constant thick snow cover which will still be here after the mini thaw. If you can throw me out some years where the cold and snow have been as deep and persistent maybe I will think again. I do not have any doubts at all, you seem to be implying otherwise,,that winter continues I am trying to see your reasoning for calling the upcoming depicted NAO as weak, today's Euro looks impressive plus the ridging poking up into Alaska is always a good sign, like others have stated the future pattern has a - EPO look to boot. Perhaps living now in the city has you perceiving things differently than your youth in the country. It has been and remains the most impressive winter so far of my life. I hit 100 inches in 96 but that was tainted by quick melts, numbers of inches of snow do not really reflect the season, if it never snows again then yea it would be a big letdown, kinda think that ain't happening. You have to remember also that this winter has been more anomalous down in CT than it has been in MA...we are both enjoying great winters, but relative to climo it been better there...and for snow pack retention too. If I only get a couple minor events from here on out and winter goes out with a wimper...it won't stack up to years like '92-'93, '93-'94, '00-'01 and '04-'05 even with the great streak of deep snow pack. If we can go out with a bang, then this winter can challenge the top dogs...at least for here. Down in CT its been better relative to climo so this winter can kind of die with a wimper and still be ranked better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You are pretty young, hard to remember a winter like this and I am 54, constant thick snow cover which will still be here after the mini thaw. If you can throw me out some years where the cold and snow have been as deep and persistent maybe I will think again. I do not have any doubts at all, you seem to be implying otherwise,,that winter continues I am trying to see your reasoning for calling the upcoming depicted NAO as weak, today's Euro looks impressive plus the ridging poking up into Alaska is always a good sign, like others have stated the future pattern has a - EPO look to boot. Perhaps living now in the city has you perceiving things differently than your youth in the country. It has been and remains the most impressive winter so far of my life. I hit 100 inches in 96 but that was tainted by quick melts, numbers of inches of snow do not really reflect the season, if it never snows again then yea it would be a big letdown, kinda think that ain't happening. Didn't I just say this?? LOL " I don't think it will happen like that..." I'm going by how the ensembles look, not some day 10 prog on the op run. The AO is going to remain + for a while. Again, it will take time, and I could see the progressive pattern shooting warm and cold spells with some snow thrown in. I just don't see a flip back to what we went through as of now. The se ridge rages on through d16 and we will need some help from above...not from the good Lord and Rev Kev, but more polar blocking. The good news is that the North Pacific ridge looks to build and move east. This may be enough to tip the scales and push the polar air south. The nao does show signs of going negative, especially on the euro ensembles..but again it's not a terribly strong signal. Like the North Pacific ridge, it may be enough to help keep troughing to our north or northeast, and thus the jetstream is forced to the southwest and south of sne. So no, I'm not saying winter will not return BY ANY MEANS...I'm saying that we'll need patience perhaps as we may either see 1) A delay in the pattern change and 2) a possible GFS scenario of alternating warm/cold patterns. Hopefully we flip the script after the 20th, but I'm not totally sure it happens that early. I'm just trying to be objective with this whole pattern change and epic flip of the NAO that some are calling for. As far as winter goes, there is no right or wrong answer as the whole topic is highly subjective to their personal fetish. There is no question this winter has been epic so far and delivered the combined longest and deepest snowpack that I've ever seen. All I am saying, is that I'm waiting to see how the rest of the winter performs, in order to grade it. I like an active pattern and imo, if it were to become mundane from here on out, it would be quite a disappointment, after going balls to the wall so far. Winter is from Dec-Mar in my eyes. 6-8 epic weeks is not enough to call it the best winter of my life. If I bust over 90-100"..then by all means will I grade this an A+. I'm just waiting to see what happens...not implying it's over.....just waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You have to remember also that this winter has been more anomalous down in CT than it has been in MA...we are both enjoying great winters, but relative to climo it been better there...and for snow pack retention too. If I only get a couple minor events from here on out and winter goes out with a wimper...it won't stack up to years like '92-'93, '93-'94, '00-'01 and '04-'05 even with the great streak of deep snow pack. If we can go out with a bang, then this winter can challenge the top dogs...at least for here. Down in CT its been better relative to climo so this winter can kind of die with a wimper and still be ranked better there. Great point. They have been ground zero this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You have to remember also that this winter has been more anomalous down in CT than it has been in MA...we are both enjoying great winters, but relative to climo it been better there...and for snow pack retention too. If I only get a couple minor events from here on out and winter goes out with a wimper...it won't stack up to years like '92-'93, '93-'94, '00-'01 and '04-'05 even with the great streak of deep snow pack. If we can go out with a bang, then this winter can challenge the top dogs...at least for here. Down in CT its been better relative to climo so this winter can kind of die with a wimper and still be ranked better there. True and good point about CT but I thought EMASS areas SW of Boston have done as well. We need a current snow for the season map . I wish more people would post their totals in Kevin in MA table thread, it would be easy to make a map. I am not worried at all about a 10 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You have to remember also that this winter has been more anomalous down in CT than it has been in MA...we are both enjoying great winters, but relative to climo it been better there...and for snow pack retention too. If I only get a couple minor events from here on out and winter goes out with a wimper...it won't stack up to years like '92-'93, '93-'94, '00-'01 and '04-'05 even with the great streak of deep snow pack. If we can go out with a bang, then this winter can challenge the top dogs...at least for here. Down in CT its been better relative to climo so this winter can kind of die with a wimper and still be ranked better there. I'd put myself in the CT category; to be approaching 60" here with constant double-digit snowpack and three major snowstorms in a month is incredible. For people living at 1000' in Massachusetts, that's more what winter is generally, dealing with deep snow and cold, this year has just been an exaggerated version of that. But the coastal plain has definitely enjoyed a unique stretch of deep snowpack with great persistence. I also think the unpredictability of this winter has made it remarkable, most of all: we were generally expecting mild in a strong La Niña and got brutal cold, and we were all thinking the Boxing Day Blizzard would miss east instead of delivering 20" of snow and 60mph winds. Unfortunately, we're starting to get a taste of what a strong La Niña can do without blocking, and it's ugly. In terms of my grade, I'd give this winter an A- if nothing interesting happens from here on out. If we get another major storm and cold outbreak, then an A. If we get two more significant storms, A+ might be deserved. I had last year as a B+ here with 68" on the season, one HECS and temperatures slightly below normal...I'm not an easy grader. Didn't I just say this?? LOL " I don't think it will happen like that..." I'm going by how the ensembles look, not some day 10 prog on the op run. The AO is going to remain + for a while. The 12z ECM OP did look pretty blocky at the end: Looks as if the east-based NAO is starting to get into the arctic and knock the PV out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 True and good point about CT but I thought EMASS areas SW of Boston have done as well. We need a current snow for the season map . I wish more people would post their totals in Kevin in MA table thread, it would be easy to make a map. I am not worried at all about a 10 repeat. Yes extremely well, but areas from Kev and most especially down in the valley to near BDR and ene to you have done amazing from two climo aspects. 1) Total snowfall, obviously 2) Number of heavy storms >12" and the 2' bomb that broke Kevin's 14" cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Another key aspect that my best winters have had, is a 2' bomb. '93-'94, '95-'96, '02-'03 and '04-'05 all had this. Technically, I did not have a 2' bomb in my area in Brockton during '93-'94, but 10 miles to my east did. Again it's all subjective,but the top dogs all had this. Now maybe this year, I can substitute the 2' + monster, with the prolonged deep snowpack. Hopefully Ray's superbomb come through in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'd put myself in the CT category; to be approaching 60" here with constant double-digit snowpack and three major snowstorms in a month is incredible. For people living at 1000' in Massachusetts, that's more what winter is generally, dealing with deep snow and cold, this year has just been an exaggerated version of that. But the coastal plain has definitely enjoyed a unique stretch of deep snowpack with great persistence. I also think the unpredictability of this winter has made it remarkable, most of all: we were generally expecting mild in a strong La Niña and got brutal cold, and we were all thinking the Boxing Day Blizzard would miss east instead of delivering 20" of snow and 60mph winds. Unfortunately, we're starting to get a taste of what a strong La Niña can do without blocking, and it's ugly. In terms of my grade, I'd give this winter an A- if nothing interesting happens from here on out. If we get another major storm and cold outbreak, then an A. If we get two more significant storms, A+ might be deserved. I had last year as a B+ here with 68" on the season, one HECS and temperatures slightly below normal...I'm not an easy grader. The 12z ECM OP did look pretty blocky at the end: Its been a great winter for just about all of SNE save maybe the Cape and Islands and extreme SE RI where its just been "good". Its been historic for most of CT thus far. The snow pack run has been pretty amazing, even for my area...having weeks of 2-3 feet on the ground. But I think some of us will need to see another major storm (or bunch of moderate storms) to really bump this winter into the great category when its all done...its currently great, but it can drop to just good if we have a weak finish. I do think we'll have another sizable event in the first half of March but there are no guarantees. I also do not think everyone expected a mild winter. There were signs of a lot of cold coming across Canada and potentially influencing us throughout winter before the season began (all those debates about the 50s/60s Ninas vs the late 90s Ninas)....but it definitely ended up a bit more intense and further south than most thought given the insane run the NAO had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Its been a great winter for just about all of SNE save maybe the Cape and Islands and extreme SE RI where its just been "good". Its been historic for most of CT thus far. The snow pack run has been pretty amazing, even for my area...having weeks of 2-3 feet on the ground. But I think some of us will need to see another major storm (or bunch of moderate storms) to really bump this winter into the great category when its all done...its currently great, but it can drop to just good if we have a weak finish. I do think we'll have another sizable event in the first half of March but there are no guarantees. I also do not think everyone expected a mild winter. There were signs of a lot of cold coming across Canada and potentially influencing us throughout winter before the season began (all those debates about the 50s/60s Ninas vs the late 90s Ninas)....but it definitely ended up a bit more intense and further south than most thought given the insane run the NAO had. Wow, great points Will. One reason I would have trouble rating this winter an A+ is that I haven't seen a jackpot event here, still haven't measured anything bigger than 14.5" in my backyard despite having three snowstorms that exceeded one foot. I was too far east in the Boxing Day Storm that hammered NJ, too far south in your early January HECS, and too far north for the 1/28 storm that crushed Central Park with 19". It's hard to rate the winter with a top grade if your backyard consistently gets jipped compared to surrounding areas; I'm not sure this is the most valid criteria for grading a winter, but I'd definitely be more inclined to go with A/A+ if I'd seen 20"+ in one of these events. It's really nice to have one epic storm like last year's Snowicane to cement your memories of the winter being exceptional. And yes, the winter's grade could drop here too into B+ range if we see a torch February and March like 75-76 where everything turned into an oven after a decent start. As you know, I admit that I busted in some ways on this winter...of course I wasn't thinking an all-out torch like 99-00/98-99 but having record cold in the Southeast during a strong La Niña is impressive. I certainly couldn't have predicted that. I did get the general idea correct of December being the coldest month and February the mildest (probably, barring some insane arctic outbreak in the last week)...It's just hard to bet against La Niña climo in February, seems to be the month with the least variability once the -ENSO hits a certain strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Scooter sorry about reading you wrong. Using Euro Ens this looks like an Arctic tap ready to go. The PV is displaced south and we seem to be ready to reload the beginning of Jan pattern. JMHO,Rev KeV stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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