chim chiminey Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 might be sneaky warm tonight.. temps may not drop much or even rise slightly so the sun/wind will be able to go to work on the snowpack without wasting phase change energy.. tomorrow could be the biggest snoweater of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 might be sneaky warm tonight.. temps may not drop much or even rise slightly so the sun/wind will be able to go to work on the snowpack without wasting phase change energy.. tomorrow could be the biggest snoweater of the week. No it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Great day at Wawa today. They most have like 5' at the base lol. I like all this sneaky cloud talk and that its really only a 2 day torch. Tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday are going to be horrible to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Great day at Wawa today. They most have like 5' at the base lol. I like all this sneaky cloud talk and that its really only a 2 day torch. Tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday are going to be horrible to watch. I just got back. You think they have that much? I was kind of surprised on the drive...max area of snow seems to be just under the Pike with another peak down towards North Easton to areas west/southwest. Big dropoff in South Easton towards 138/Rte 24. I was impressed by how quickly the totals changed from one location to the next. That's a nice little mountain. My first trip there, my oldest loved it. Well run, well groomed, nice trails. Conifer is nice, Walton has that one nice little drop, 10th had some decent moguls....Ralphs Run too crowded but Challenger was cute after the race(s) ended. Nice little place....well run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yesterday, it looked like the cold could push back a bit further into the US by the end of February. Today, it does not look as cold and we could actually see this flatter flow hold on a little bit longer to end the month! European ensembles show the North American Polar vortex linking up with the Asian polar vortex and up as one giant vortex…but in a position in Canada which would continue to allow some warmth to stay in the US..particularly the east! This could mean more warmth heading into March? This could get interesting…Could this mean a big rainstorm with flooding potential down the road? It’s all on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I just got back. You think they have that much? I was kind of surprised on the drive...max area of snow seems to be just under the Pike with another peak down towards North Easton to areas west/southwest. Big dropoff in South Easton towards 138/Rte 24. I was impressed by how quickly the totals changed from one location to the next. That's a nice little mountain. My first trip there, my oldest loved it. Well run, well groomed, nice trails. Conifer is nice, Walton has that one nice little drop, 10th had some decent moguls....Ralphs Run too crowded but Challenger was cute after the race(s) ended. Nice little place....well run. Maybe not, but there website claims 60-80". Its 4 feet for sure. It varies a lot, that's true. I was up in Southern Maine yesterday and there was probably "only" 18" or so. I love Wachusset. I wish I got a chance to go more but I didn't start skiing until like a year ago. The trails were great today IMO, very little ice. I know that's one place that will survive the torch fine. Probably nothing more then a few days in the 40s with 50 possible Friday on the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 My temp has shot up to 34 now after 32 at sunset. Looks like everyone is above 32 all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Maybe not, but there website claims 60-80". Its 4 feet for sure. It varies a lot, that's true. I was up in Southern Maine yesterday and there was probably "only" 18" or so. I love Wachusset. I wish I got a chance to go more but I didn't start skiing until like a year ago. The trails were great today IMO, very little ice. I know that's one place that will survive the torch fine. Probably nothing more then a few days in the 40s with 50 possible Friday on the mountain. No, it's terrible and flat. Stay away!!! They have no snow. (I do believe there is a general 4-5 feet of base...after watching it build over the season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 My temp has shot up to 34 now after 32 at sunset. Looks like everyone is above 32 all night My thermo says 28F, but the local meso-sites say 32 and 33, so I would guess they are correct. WAA blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Maybe not, but there website claims 60-80". Its 4 feet for sure. It varies a lot, that's true. I was up in Southern Maine yesterday and there was probably "only" 18" or so. I love Wachusset. I wish I got a chance to go more but I didn't start skiing until like a year ago. The trails were great today IMO, very little ice. I know that's one place that will survive the torch fine. Probably nothing more then a few days in the 40s with 50 possible Friday on the mountain. I think they've got plenty of snow to withstand a couple of torches. I just started skiing a couple of years ago - have probably only been about 12-14 times. This would be a great mountain to learn to ski on...the trails are nice, open, forgiving, well groomed and they keep good tabs on the skiers. Much less wild than Waterville. I really liked it and would go back again. Obviously wish the trails were a little longer/tougher but that's the price to pay when we're spending 60-90 minutes less time in the car each way. Nice place, very impressed. I liked Sam Walton or whatever the name of the diamond on the left (from the top) is called and Challenger. Many fewer people on the diamonds and aside of one or two brief steep drops they were good for my daughter. A+...really enjoyed it. It is what it is, but it 100% lives up to the commercials/reputation. Great mountain for kids and well organized lift lines etc. It was snowing when we were skiing, that was cool too. -- Dirty snow needs a refresher...hopefully soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think they've got plenty of snow to withstand a couple of torches. I just started skiing a couple of years ago - have probably only been about 12-14 times. This would be a great mountain to learn to ski on...the trails are nice, open, forgiving, well groomed and they keep good tabs on the skiers. Much less wild than Waterville. I really liked it and would go back again. Obviously wish the trails were a little longer/tougher but that's the price to pay when we're spending 60-90 minutes less time in the car each way. Nice place, very impressed. I liked Sam Walton or whatever the name of the diamond on the left (from the top) is called and Challenger. Many fewer people on the diamonds and aside of one or two brief steep drops they were good for my daughter. A+...really enjoyed it. It is what it is, but it 100% lives up to the commercials/reputation. Great mountain for kids and well organized lift lines etc. It was snowing when we were skiing, that was cool too. -- Dirty snow needs a refresher...hopefully soon. Smith Walton, 10th Mountain, and Conifer are the 3 trails from the top. 10th can be good depending on the number of people. Smith is my fav. Hitchcock is a fun intermediate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Smith Walton, 10th Mountain, and Conifer are the 3 trails from the top. 10th can be good depending on the number of people. Smith is my fav. Hitchcock is a fun intermediate. We missed Hitchcock somehow....when you're only 5 or 6 yrs old 10 straight runs she was numb. I liked it...if I'd gone there when we first started I'd have likely spent many days there. Will go back again this winter if the weather holds. We spent 90% of the time on Smith, 10th and Conifer...but mainly smith and 10th as nobody was on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I am just not impressed at all really with this warm up as being as drastic as all that. Certainly....there were depictions among the models over the last 5 days for exceptional departures, but this is been muted a degree or two a day, as well as shorted by 4-6 hours on either end ever since, and now.... the last 3 cycles of the GFS is really down to just one day, Friday, of meaningful warm departures, and then it gets quite cold almost immediately the next day on Saturday. This operational 18z run is entertaining to say the least, with then 3 to perhaps 4 juicy lop-over events with substantial cold thickness in the lower levels. Winter is far far from ended on this run, and actually ...looking back in history, many stormy episodes are kicked off by an interval of warmth that is abruptly ended. First it gets warm, then it gets cold, boom - In this situation we may end up with buckling at higher latitudes causing stronger than normal confluence across southern Canada in the means; this would inevitably mean trouble if the -PNA sends overrunning events up this way. Meanwhile, the AO is crashing smartly to negative by D10, and then mop ends positive after - that latter circumstance is usually more like uncertainty and could mean anything beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I am just not impressed at all really with this warm up as being as drastic as all that. Certainly....there were depictions among the models over the last 5 days for exceptional departures, but this is been muted a degree or two a day, as well as shorted by 4-6 hours on either end ever since, and now.... the last 3 cycles of the GFS is really down to just one day, Friday, of meaningful warm departures, and then it gets quite cold almost immediately the next day on Saturday. This operational 18z run is entertaining to say the least, with then 3 to perhaps 4 juicy lop-over events with substantial cold thickness in the lower levels. Winter is far far from ended on this run, and actually ...looking back in history, many stormy episodes are kicked off by an interval of warmth that is abruptly ended. First it gets warm, then it gets cold, boom - In this situation we may end up with buckling at higher latitudes causing stronger than normal confluence across southern Canada in the means; this would inevitably mean trouble if the -PNA sends overrunning events up this way. Meanwhile, the AO is crashing smartly to negative by D10, and then mop ends positive after - that latter circumstance is usually more like uncertainty and could mean anything beyond. If it only ends up being a 15 day break in the meaningful snows that's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 we are at our high for the day right now...37.2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Not sure I see sneaky warmth on Wednesday. Ridge cresting overhead keeps mixing really shallow with a strong subsidence inversion. GFS MOS at BDL is 42F and that sounds about right. Maybe not BDL, but they may mix out late. I'm thinking areas further east. It's one of those things where I wouldn't be shocked if it happens, that's all. I wouldn't go for 60 or anything..lol. Looks like ridge moves away during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 35.4 here, but snow has an icy crust over it, probably due to a little evapo cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Maybe not BDL, but they may mix out late. I'm thinking areas further east. It's one of those things where I wouldn't be shocked if it happens, that's all. I wouldn't go for 60 or anything..lol. Looks like ridge moves away during the day. 925mb thetas are around 280K in eastern sections with SW winds of 35-40kt 18z Wed on the GFS. I'd be inclined to lean warm too although it could be a chilly start with single numbers in the rad spots. A few degrees warmer than MOS at this point wouldn't shock me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 id like to see kevin lose 95% of his snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 id like to see kevin lose 95% of his snow post of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 925mb thetas are around 280K in eastern sections with SW winds of 35-40kt 18z Wed on the GFS. I'd be inclined to lean warm too although it could be a chilly start with single numbers in the rad spots. A few degrees warmer than MOS at this point wouldn't shock me either. Yeah it's a cool start, but has that look of a warm finish that may surprise some. You threw out a couple of reasons right there. No real junky clouds to screw it up, like Thursday and Friday will hopefully have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 id like to see kevin lose 95% of his snow LOL, he'll keep a good chunk of it I think. Hopefully those piles don't fall on his poor kids, on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 27/21. Not really worried about a mid winter warm up I'll just enjoy some mild air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Torch on the way tomorrow....kind of like the last big snow event....the front runner may be the best performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Torch on the way tomorrow....kind of like the last big snow event....the front runner may be the best performer. Another sneaky torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Another sneaky torch? Cute, sneaky torch. I meant sneaky, meaning more of a surprise..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 californication is funny torching here, 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Cute, sneaky torch. I meant sneaky, meaning more of a surprise..lol. So this one will be cute, as well?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 LOL, he'll keep a good chunk of it I think. Hopefully those piles don't fall on his poor kids, on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Awful start ton the day 37.3..first time I ran with no hat since NYD. No melting at all with the low dews though .Even ice still on the driveway and rds. Looks like we rip some 50+ gusts tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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