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Early spring...or poorly timed thaw...


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah that is going to limit the melting power of this torch. Its not a huge lakes cutter with 50F TDs and fog. We may see a brief spike in tds before the fropa on late Friday night or early Saturday.

Yeah that's why I told Kev to hold off on the last knot to the noose. Should be plenty of snow still left.

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I had about a 12" snowpack going into that and emerged with 3-4" of crust....not bad.

This will melt faster in the sun than the New Years one since the sun angle is obviously higher now, but I think the overall progression of this mild spell should be quite similar. About 3 days in length (with 1 very warm day in the middle) and a fairly dry FROPA and generally lower dewpoints except for maybe a short period before FROPA.

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There is also a chance we may have a "junky" atmosphere later Thursday and Friday, especially near and north of the Pike. What I mean by junky, are those mid level clouds coming in around 15,000ft or so.

It's similar to what we talk about in the summer when we get those heat domes coming in. They all look great and everyone is talking about record highs, only to have altostratus ruin it.

I love me some junk in my atmospheric trunk.

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This will melt faster in the sun than the New Years one since the sun angle is obviously higher now, but I think the overall progression of this mild spell should be quite similar. About 3 days in length (with 1 very warm day in the middle) and a fairly dry FROPA and generally lower dewpoints except for maybe a short period before FROPA.

Yea and the deeper it is the more it prone to compaction it is.

I'll probably lose about 1'.

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The best part is on tv tonight..Ryan will now be forced to talk about a return to winter wx by this time mext week in his 7 day..so he won't be able to focusm on the torch. He'll be forced to talk about cold, snow coming back

Yeah, until the SE ridge flexes it's muscle and we're back above normal by early next week lol

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Yeah, until the SE ridge flexes it's muscle and we're back above normal by early next week lol

Maybe you CT folks, but the n of the pike crew should be a little better off.

It stands to reason that the atmosphere would do that, too because its further down in CTand n NJ that is already insanely above climo....not up here.

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I don't see any big cold though. I mean around average... maybe somewhat above. This time of year average temps are going to start melting snow....

Well, we're almost in March by that point....I don't expect to consistently retain snow in March...I just hope to kee it active to accrue a net gain.

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Well, we're almost in March by that point....I don't expect to consistently retain snow in March...I just hope to kee it active to accrue a net gain.

Yea we peaked, now it's about the daily snow storms. Eventually another stemwinder will evolve and we can all be up at 130 am for the Euro. I have to say this has been my best winter on the boards, learned a whole lot thanks to some great mets and knowledgeable hobbyists. Thunder snow at 4 am, MCS at 1am, severe TStorm on a two foot pack, it was memorable to say the least. I kid around too much but really appreciate you guys. The sickness personified in a driveway sculpted is perhaps the high point and best reflection of who we are.

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Oh geez call Wiz, I would hit it, hopefully at night again, fantastic light show on reflective snow last time.

That was amazing! Like I said, my favorite storm this winter. I still can't believe I got hail lol ... it's literally only the 5th time in my life I've seen hail ... and it was in the middle of the winter with surface temps below freezing!!

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What a convoluted pattern this weekend and beyond. Looks like there will be a transient Greenland block which weakens and retrogrades SW toward Hudson Bay, while meanwhile a rollover ridge/potential block builds over W. Canada but is squashed by a developing trough over AK.

The one constant in all the guidance is a trend toward keeping heights higher than prior runs over Greenland late this weekend into this week, which traps a deep upper low E of Labrador. That upper low eventually becomes a 50/50 low by Sun as it combines with a northern stream system from the upper Midwest that is forced east underneath the relatively high heights over NE Canada.

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That was amazing! Like I said, my favorite storm this winter. I still can't believe I got hail lol ... it's literally only the 5th time in my life I've seen hail ... and it was in the middle of the winter with surface temps below freezing!!

That's the kind of things that has made this special to me,some count snow inches to describe a great winter, I count totality and uniqueness. I am 54 and witnessed some rare things in my life but that Tstorm under the circumstances was totally unique and a first.

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<br />Currently at 26.9F, high was 27.5F, BOX had me getting to 33F... we'll see.<br /><br />Still spitting snow, not on radar though.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

33 will be your midnight high temp. it seems like we're in the altostratus "junk" the mets are talking about for later this week too just before the severe WAA

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What a convoluted pattern this weekend and beyond. Looks like there will be a transient Greenland block which weakens and retrogrades SW toward Hudson Bay, while meanwhile a rollover ridge/potential block builds over W. Canada but is squashed by a developing trough over AK.

The one constant in all the guidance is a trend toward keeping heights higher than prior runs over Greenland late this weekend into this week, which traps a deep upper low E of Labrador. That upper low eventually becomes a 50/50 low by Sun as it combines with a northern stream system from the upper Midwest that is forced east underneath the relatively high heights over NE Canada.

Not suprising.....I'd be stunned if we didn't here from the NAO again between now and the end of March.

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Look at the large differences between yesterday's and today's GFS ensemble, valid Fri night. The upper low off Labrador is shifted SW about 500 miles, and the blocking over Greenland is about 10 dm stronger. Meanwhile, more ridging builds near the Rockies. All this has the effect of forcing the next system over the upper Midwest to dig more, and brings a stronger and faster push of cold air to New England by Sat.

anim_4b7fc3d4-f2aa-9df4-d902-c83465f045c1.gif

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Look at the large differences between yesterday's and today's GFS ensemble, valid Fri night. The upper low off Labrador is shifted SW about 500 miles, and the blocking over Greenland is about 10 dm stronger. Meanwhile, more ridging builds near the Rockies. All this has the effect of forcing the next system over the upper Midwest to dig more, and brings a stronger and faster push of cold air to New England by Sat.

anim_4b7fc3d4-f2aa-9df4-d902-c83465f045c1.gif

Music to my ears

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That's kind of an unecessary slur John.

On the other hand, who could hold off a tornado with a belt strap more than a determined lesbian?!

It is not a slur at all - It's a real criticism based in fact. They DON'T incorporate the polarfield indices in their seasonal outlooks, and it is - imo - wrong to do so.

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