Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Looks like the real torch day is Friday. Should get into the 50s easily I would think. With a little luck we might get away with the cold front getting through early on Saturday. What do you think our nighttime lows will be Thurs and Fri mornings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 You'll have plenty of snow left. It's really only Thursday and Friday that are warm for you...especially Friday. 12+ please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 You'll have plenty of snow left. It's really only Thursday and Friday that are warm for you...especially Friday. Still not budging on a snowy last week of Feb or what.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I'm enjoying the light snow falling..it's the only light snow we've got Yeah, it's not much but at least we can keep with the theme of snow falling within a week of the last snow. Haven't gone a week without some kind of snow falling since before the boxing day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Still not budging on a snowy last week of Feb or what.... I never said it will be a definite, just that a mdt event or two is possible. I don't see any significant changes right now. The possibility is there that it could be more of a mix too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think that N NJ and s CT could get away with referring to this winter as epic if they didn't see another flake, but I think that for most of sne it would have to be considered a good winter with an epic 1 month stretch.....meh on CC, great on the immediate east coast and good everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I never said it will be a definite, just that a mdt event or two is possible. I don't see any significant changes right now. The possibility is there that it could be more of a mix too. Gotcha. I know that is the safest bet for the pros, since it's your livelihoods, but I just don't like calling for "potential".......I'd rather just take a look at the pattern and couple that with a hunch. Maybe one or two more light events 3" or less this month and then one more decent stretch next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yeah, it's not much but at least we can keep with the theme of snow falling within a week of the last snow. Haven't gone a week without some kind of snow falling since before the boxing day storm. Did you get any of that squall last night, pretty good here. Snow depth 20-22 in exposed areas, 24 in shade. Ice everywhere on the paths 3-5 inches thick. Made some more drainage points for thaw days. Snow is super fast, lots of Powdah underneath the top 4 or so ice laden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 What do you think our nighttime lows will be Thurs and Fri mornings? Thurs morning should be near freezing....maybe low to mid 30s. Fri morning will be awful, probably upper 30s. This is speaking for the hilltops and not the usual sheltered spots. Luckily it looks like we get the front to move through early Saturday, so the torch is really only 2.5 days or so. It will melt the snow down decently for sure, but not nearly enough to get rid of it except the south facing hillsides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Thurs morning should be near freezing....maybe low to mid 30s. Fri morning will be awful, probably upper 30s. This is speaking for the hilltops and not the usual sheltered spots. Luckily it looks like we get the front to move through early Saturday, so the torch is really only 2.5 days or so. It will melt the snow down decently for sure, but not nearly enough to get rid of it except the south facing hillsides. The one, laregely trivial advantage that I hold over ORH, living in a sheltered swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Gotcha. I know that is the safest bet for the pros, since it's your livelihoods, but I just don't like calling for "potential".......I'd rather just take a look at the pattern and couple that with a hunch. Maybe one or two more light events 3" or less this month and then one more decent stretch next month. It seems like a classic gradient pattern, but we have to keep an eye on the -PNA. That could potentially hurt us, however it does have a chance to deliver after the 20th or so. Because it's one of those things where 100 miles mean everything...just too early to determine if we cash in or get screwed. I do like the pattern for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 The one, laregely trivial advantage that I hold over ORH, living in a sheltered swamp. Yeah but you'll torch more during the daylight hours than we will at least at night we can't lose any extra snow to direct moonlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Maybe Will or Scooter can start a new thread for the pattern after the Bermuda high siege Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yeah but you'll torch more during the daylight hours than we will at least at night we can't lose any extra snow to direct moonlight I don't think 5 or 6 degrees is going to mean a whole lot, to be honest. 58 or 53...not much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I don't think 5 or 6 degrees is going to mean a whole lot, to be honest. 58 or 53...not much difference. Dews mostly in the 20's or 30's during this disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yeah but you'll torch more during the daylight hours than we will at least at night we can't lose any extra snow to direct moonlight I know...which is why I said "largely trivial" advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Dews mostly in the 20's or 30's during this disaster? Maybe mid 30 td's Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Maybe mid 30 td's Friday. Yeah that is going to limit the melting power of this torch. Its not a huge lakes cutter with 50F TDs and fog. We may see a brief spike in tds before the fropa on late Friday night or early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yeah that is going to limit the melting power of this torch. Its not a huge lakes cutter with 50F TDs and fog. We may see a brief spike in tds before the fropa on late Friday night or early Saturday. That NYE/NYD torch was sort of like that though I guess the dews were higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yeah that is going to limit the melting power of this torch. Its not a huge lakes cutter with 50F TDs and fog. We may see a brief spike in tds before the fropa on late Friday night or early Saturday. I agree. This isn't a Jan 1996 48F dew point fog eating snow. That said... if we can break out in the sun on Friday and if temps can really soar with some downsloping the valleys and coastal plain could see some really fast snow melt. Not sure we'll be able to do it... but partly sunny and 60 at BDL is going to eat this stuff away fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I agree. This isn't a Jan 1996 48F dew point fog eating snow. That said... if we can break out in the sun on Friday and if temps can really soar with some downsloping the valleys and coastal plain could see some really fast snow melt. Not sure we'll be able to do it... but partly sunny and 60 at BDL is going to eat this stuff away fast. Only in direct sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Only in direct sun lol if you say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Even though I'll prob eek above freezing, today is a real break with the clouds hanging in.....I wish every day was cloudy like this.....at this time of year, the sun is a real biatch.....can't stand it. I wish the damn thing would never come out btwm tday and Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 That NYE/NYD torch was sort of like that though I guess the dews were higher Yeah it will probably be very similar to that torch...that one lasted 3 days (maybe slightly less) and had a fairly dry fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 lol if you say so This snow is not like the Feb 2007 snow...you'll still have snow in your yard when it gets cold again next Satuday. You'd better hope you do...Otherwise the house will be stained with mud from the dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yeah it will probably be very similar to that torch...that one lasted 3 days (maybe slightly less) and had a fairly dry fropa. I had about a 12" snowpack going into that and emerged with 3-4" of crust....not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 This snow is not like the Feb 2007 snow...you'll still have snow in your yard when it gets cold again next Satuday. You'd better hope you do...Otherwise the house will be stained with mud from the dog You mean Feb 2006.....my Feb 2007 snow was just like this because it was a sleet-bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 You mean Feb 2006.....my Feb 2007 snow was just like this because it was a sleet-bomb. Yeah 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 There is also a chance we may have a "junky" atmosphere later Thursday and Friday, especially near and north of the Pike. What I mean by junky, are those mid level clouds coming in around 15,000ft or so. It's similar to what we talk about in the summer when we get those heat domes coming in. They all look great and everyone is talking about record highs, only to have altostratus ruin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 The best part is on tv tonight..Ryan will now be forced to talk about a return to winter wx by this time mext week in his 7 day..so he won't be able to focusm on the torch. He'll be forced to talk about cold, snow coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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