Early spring...or poorly timed thaw...

[Cold Miser]

Reading this article for a Meteorologist is like trying to watch the movie Twister.

What do you expect? They trying to appeal to an audience that is probably not Scientifically savvy when it comes to weather. For someone like me, it was useful.

P.S. I love the movie "Twister" as well.

[mahk_webstah]

This could be one heck of a pattern for you guys.

You are only 100 miles south.

[CoastalWx]

You should have knocked....lol. I had to go to visit a friend (old classmate) who's wife just died. Ach...we're all getting old. Cold and cloudy...deep and bulletproof snowpack....and a Euro ensembles WAY different vs op.

D 9/10: ...look at the difference in H85/H5. Ensemble prog is on the left, op on the right.

Yeah, ensembles might be the way to go here..and not because it's colder. Like with any operational runs, they are unstable beyond a week out.

[CoastalWx]

You are only 100 miles south.

100 miles is all or nothing in a pattern like this. Usually gradient patterns are awesome for your area.

[CoastalWx]

FWIW, this mild spell was probably one of the best modeled events this winter. Figures right?? LOL. Many of the teleconnections and even MJO supported this. The models hinted at this by Groundhog Day. I remember we were talking about this in the beginning of the month,and then Will made that nice detailed evolution of the pattern. Props to the ensembles on this.

[Organizing Low]

You said it...lol. Don't forget Messenger throwing down Step 1 fertilizer and sharpening the lawn mower blade.

I love how giddy people are trying to get about Friday. Yeah, good luck doing any outdoor activity away from black top when there is still 1-2' OTG. And if the snow is melted in some areas...it's a mud pit. I guess they can stick their head out of the car window, and tongue the 60 degree air like a bloodhound.

:lmao:

[Typhoon Tip]

I think the SE ridge is a given as the Nina pattern has apparently arrived. I agree that with a little -nao then that could be great for new england as the SE ridge helps to create the gradient and storm track with cold air just to our north. I didn't like the SE Ridge when I lived in Philly but I like it now.

For weeks I have been happening occasionally upon statements surrounding how the Nina enforces SE ridging, and have biding time in unvoiced confusion. I believe there is miss-conception going on, but in all honesty, I am not sure on which side.

Here is the grade school fun map provided by CPC that outlines the preferred (statistically derived) pattern orientation for warm vs cool ENSO regimes:

I do not see an overwhelming tendency there for SE U.S. ridging. It does, however, say "warm" in a band from Alabama to the Carolinas. However, that could equally be interpreted as ridge preponderance, just as much as merely increased barotropic translations associated with Ohio and Tennessee Valley cyclones. I have seen no study that attempted a determination as to which. Either way, it bears little meaning for me given to the larger synoptic presentation of this La Nina depiction for our quatra-hemispheric scale. Which features, a big Gulf of Alaska ridge, and a generalized trough axis centered ~ 80W. Even the southern stream attempts to phase in with that configuration in having a ridge node, albeit not as amplified, over the Rockies with some form of coupled trough immediately down stream.

That entire circumstance is not really a -PNA, nor does that require emphasizing any SE U.S. ridging.

Also, any given season there are likely to be ridging events in the Southeast. This is true for warm and cool ENSO seasons; this is true for negative or positive PNA intervals, as well. These events occur inside of seasonal temporal scales, and it is virtually impossible to be certain if ENSO is responsible outright for individual biases in the pattern. Because we have a SE ridge now, does not mean La Nina is necessarily responsible - certainly not when looking at that graphical display above, that is certain.

Also, another issue here is that the PNA domain is very large, including the eastern 1/3rd of the entire Pacific Basin, as well as the North America. I have seen Perennial North American Patterns (west ridge, east trough couplets) during -PNAs often enough, just as I have seen flat progressive storm killer patterns during +PNA. Somewhat rare, indeed, but the very fact that can be arranged (during either La Nina or El Nino) says a lot.

It is in my opinion that the ENSO is weighted too heavily in assessing culpability for anomaly distributions on seasonal scales, and always has been. If anything, the cool vs warm departure seasons appear more highly correlated with the Multi-Decadal Oscillations of the Arctic and its minion Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic Oscillations. "Weather" we go back to 1950, or all the way back 200 years using reanalysis techniques for those less certain decades prior to 1950, the curves superimpose nicely. Yet every year it is the same old vamp from NCEP, 'the state of the ENSO points to'.

I believe multiple factors, neither of which have outright proxy on the system are at work every year. Some years, the polar field indices are just overwhelming; some years, these northern teleconnectors are less predominating and that allows other southern teleconnectors to take control.

[Typhoon Tip]

I agree. Tip needs to chill a little.

And yes John, we met in ORH.

Wait though - I have a ligit concern about sources that supply questionably accurate material to those less enlightened, because isn't the goal here a more ubiquitous understanding of how all this stuff works?

[CoastalWx]

John, I agree in that I'm not entirely sure that you can blame "La Nina" for this current se ridge, but as a whole...when you look back during a La Nina winter...you do tend to find a correlation to se US ridging. Tropical forcing and teleconnections from this would support a se US ridge. However, during years with a -NAO..I would argue that any se ridging is probably heavily muted, like it was up until now. MJO composites will probably not tell the story, just like this year...a problem when MJO data only goes back to 1974 and fails to incorporate data from our last -NAO regime.

[Typhoon Tip]

FWIW, this mild spell was probably one of the best modeled events this winter. Figures right?? LOL. Many of the teleconnections and even MJO supported this. The models hinted at this by Groundhog Day. I remember we were talking about this in the beginning of the month,and then Will made that nice detailed evolution of the pattern. Props to the ensembles on this.

Actually, for me - both this and the last 45 days of exception storminess with some cold attending was also very well suggested back well prior to XMass - I had a thread out there stating that Winter was about to mean business.

But yea - I also remember saying, in passing, in thread several weeks ago, with annotation, showing the teleconnectors converging on warming signal, and even sensed a touch of hostility in the replies

Eh, it is what it is.... I did also state at that time, 'it can't snow forever'. Let's face it, early spring or poorly timed thaw - what difference does it really make if the month of February is gobbled up by a warm anomaly. March is Spring Meteorologically for a reason.

I suppose for storm enthusiasts the first half of March being statistically active enough for our latitude is their savior. For me, the futility kicked in almost immediately when it became clear that the run-away stacking up of snow pack chances were suddenly dashed. This pack, albeit impressive as a snap shot, is dying. If I could have my druthers I be setting up my tri-pod in a field in 87/71 with 90degrees of deep layer shear punching ESE out of ALB.

Don't get me wrong; if on Feb 20 there is a 950mb low modeled E of the Del Marva I will be just as giddy as the next one. But the "edge" of this winter's awesomeness has been heavily dulled just the same.

[Ice Warrior commander]

Wait though - I have a ligit concern about sources that supply questionably accurate material to those less enlightened, because isn't the goal here a more ubiquitous understanding of how all this stuff works?

I was kidding a little there, like in person.

Yes, being a Met as well I agree 100% with you.

Also, I "suffered" through the movie Twister.

Great write -up by the way.

I'll do a write up as well. people can either agree, or disagree. Thats what science is all about.. also, going with the facts and not muddled media write- ups.

[Typhoon Tip]

John, I agree in that I'm not entirely sure that you can blame "La Nina" for this current se ridge, but as a whole...when you look back during a La Nina winter...you do tend to find a correlation to se US ridging. Tropical forcing and teleconnections from this would support a se US ridge. However, during years with a -NAO..I would argue that any se ridging is probably heavily muted, like it was up until now. MJO composites will probably not tell the story, just like this year...a problem when MJO data only goes back to 1974 and fails to incorporate data from our last -NAO regime.

But how?!

That's not to be argumentative, it's my own consternation; I don't see how we can say that (bolded) when the products present about 0 likeness to that. One flies in the face of the other.

[CoastalWx]

Actually, for me - both this and the last 45 days of exception storminess with some cold attending was also very well suggested back well prior to XMass - I had a thread out there stating that Winter was about to mean business.

But yea - I also remember saying, in passing, in thread several weeks ago, with annotation, showing the teleconnectors converging on warming signal, and even sensed a touch of hostility in the replies

Eh, it is what it is.... I did also state at that time, 'it can't snow forever'. Let's face it, early spring or poorly timed thaw - what difference does it really make if the month of February is gobbled up by a warm anomaly. March is Spring Meteorologically for a reason.

I suppose for storm enthusiasts the first half of March being statistically active enough for our latitude is their savior. For me, the futility kicked in almost immediately when it became clear that the run-away stacking up of snow pack chances were suddenly dashed. This pack, albeit impressive as a snap shot, is dying. If I could have my druthers I be setting up my tri-pod in a field in 87/71 with 90degrees of deep layer shear punching ESE out of ALB.

Don't get me wrong; if on Feb 20 there is a 950mb low modeled E of the Del Marva I will be just as giddy as the next one. But the "edge" of this winter's awesomeness has been heavily dulled just the same.

Yeah you had some good thoughts put forth as well. It was a fun time for both mets and enthusiasts alike, and hopefully the discos out forth by all were a nice learning tool for many.

I could see us getting into a fun period for a time coming up. Perhaps it's a rollercoaster type deal, thanks to ridging up by the NAO or EPO region trying to battle it out with the raging -PNA. Either way, I'm coming around to shooting for a good seasonal snowfall and out of the snowpack mindset, if you will. I enjoy a good March, and I hope at least we can get a good couple of weeks out of it, for the cp.

I could see a period where we have a cold week next week with some sort of snow or mixed event, followed by a couple of days of milder wx towards the end of the month, and then maybe another polar plunge towards March 1st. The euro ensembles were cold throughout, but a few signs of those milder couple of days near the end of the month are around, with the PNA becoming more negative. Hopefully the 00z ensembles are more right then wrong.

[mahk_webstah]

For weeks I have been happening occasionally upon statements surrounding how the Nina enforces SE ridging, and have biding time in unvoiced confusion. I believe there is miss-conception going on, but in all honesty, I am not sure on which side.

Here is the grade school fun map provided by CPC that outlines the preferred (statistically derived) pattern orientation for warm vs cool ENSO regimes:

I do not see an overwhelming tendency there for SE U.S. ridging. It does, however, say "warm" in a band from Alabama to the Carolinas. However, that could equally be interpreted as ridge preponderance, just as much as merely increased barotropic translations associated with Ohio and Tennessee Valley cyclones. I have seen no study that attempted a determination as to which. Either way, it bears little meaning for me given to the larger synoptic presentation of this La Nina depiction for our quatra-hemispheric scale. Which features, a big Gulf of Alaska ridge, and a generalized trough axis centered ~ 80W. Even the southern stream attempts to phase in with that configuration in having a ridge node, albeit not as amplified, over the Rockies with some form of coupled trough immediately down stream.

That entire circumstance is not really a -PNA, nor does that require emphasizing any SE U.S. ridging.

Also, any given season there are likely to be ridging events in the Southeast. This is true for warm and cool ENSO seasons; this is true for negative or positive PNA intervals, as well. These events occur inside of seasonal temporal scales, and it is virtually impossible to be certain if ENSO is responsible outright for individual biases in the pattern. Because we have a SE ridge now, does not mean La Nina is necessarily responsible - certainly not when looking at that graphical display above, that is certain.

Also, another issue here is that the PNA domain is very large, including the eastern 1/3rd of the entire Pacific Basin, as well as the North America. I have seen Perennial North American Patterns (west ridge, east trough couplets) during -PNAs often enough, just as I have seen flat progressive storm killer patterns during +PNA. Somewhat rare, indeed, but the very fact that can be arranged (during either La Nina or El Nino) says a lot.

It is in my opinion that the ENSO is weighted too heavily in assessing culpability for anomaly distributions on seasonal scales, and always has been. If anything, the cool vs warm departure seasons appear more highly correlated with the Multi-Decadal Oscillations of the Arctic and its minion Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic Oscillations. "Weather" we go back to 1950, or all the way back 200 years using reanalysis techniques for those less certain decades prior to 1950, the curves superimpose nicely. Yet every year it is the same old vamp from NCEP, 'the state of the ENSO points to'.

I believe multiple factors, neither of which have outright proxy on the system are at work every year. Some years, the polar field indices are just overwhelming; some years, these northern teleconnectors are less predominating and that allows other southern teleconnectors to take control.

John,

You understand more about this stuff in one of your nose hairs than I do...that being said, if the typical nina pattern features warm and dry in the SE that would indicate a preponderance of ridgeiness, no? Of course other factors can emerge at any time but that is what that map says to me.

[CoastalWx]

But how?!

That's not to be argumentative, it's my own consternation; I don't see how we can say that (bolded) when the products present about 0 likeness to that. One flies in the face of the other.

Well it boils down to tropical forcing. Tropical forcing in the west Pacific leads to more of a central Pacific ridge. This ridge would then teleconnect to a trough over the west coast, which then leads to ridging across the southeast.

However it's a general statement and obviously the placement and intensity of tropical forcing as well as variables like SSW, mountain torques, and -NAO regimes...all have a say in the temperature patterns over the East Coast.

So to throw out a blanket statement of warm se, cold nw might be a "foundation" to build on...however there is clearly MUCH MUCH more to it, than that.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was kidding a little there, like in person.

Yes, being a Met as well I agree 100% with you.

Also, I "suffered" through the movie Twister.

Great write -up by the way.

I'll do a write up as well. people can either agree, or disagree. Thats what science is all about.. also, going with the facts and not muddled media write- ups.

I don't know which gem of a scene I liked more: the scene where the two twisters were like 10 feet apart, or the 1200 pound cow flying curvi-linearly over the hood of a 2000 pound truck, and the truck isn't moving. I think the best one has to be Bill Paxton and that lesbo actress holding off the might of an F5 tornado with a belt strap.

Good stuff!

Eh, the article - in fairness - isn't as horrible, no. It really took a bit of a "reading between the lines" - so to speak - to get to where it was annoying. Like, you can just sense that the reporter talked to people that are ENSO biased, the same people that help formulate government-derived seasonal outlooks; and to that I admit a personal kind of resentment for their methodology, one that rarely incorporates polarward considerations. Seeing as that is my personal hang-up, take for what it is worth.

But that is not all. This years -NAO preponderance...heck, last year's too, and probably for the next 3 or so years this should be anticipated for that matter. It was all 'somewhat' assessable given to the strong correlation - and physically demonstrated reasoning - of the negative solar cycle and the -AO. In defense of the reporter, good luck being charged with the responsibility of conveying that in user-friendly prose to a public whose collective intellect is being ever dulled by the easy of a push-button auto-pap technological society.

[grinch1989]

light snow here, radar looks good for a few hours of mood snow

[Typhoon Tip]

Well it boils down to tropical forcing. Tropical forcing in the west Pacific leads to more of a central Pacific ridge. This ridge would then teleconnect to a trough over the west coast, which then leads to ridging across the southeast.

However it's a general statement and obviously the placement and intensity of tropical forcing as well as variables like SSW, mountain torques, and -NAO regimes...all have a say in the temperature patterns over the East Coast.

So to throw out a blanket statement of warm se, cold nw might be a "foundation" to build on...however there is clearly MUCH MUCH more to it, than that.

I suppose the graphical presentations may simply be muting the ridge's presence. Perhaps the ridge is there, but is expressed in the form of anomalously large gradient.

I have often thought that it would be a cool study, and product result, to do an ambient wind anomaly analysis over the SE sector. I think an above median wind velocity in the means would be an indication of ridge exertion there, whether the "step back" and view appearance of the pattern shows one there or not.

[Typhoon Tip]

John,

You understand more about this stuff in one of your nose hairs than I do...that being said, if the typical nina pattern features warm and dry in the SE that would indicate a preponderance of ridgeiness, no? Of course other factors can emerge at any time but that is what that map says to me.

One would think so, sure.

I am just trying to get to the bottom of why all these pattern correlation products I keep seeing do not reflect said ridging.. My most recent post to Scott perhaps partially explains why that may be, however.

[mahk_webstah]

I don't know which gem of a scene I liked more: the scene where the two twisters were like 10 feet apart, or the 1200 pound cow flying curvi-linearly over the hood of a 2000 pound truck, and the truck isn't moving. I think the best one has to be Bill Paxton and that lesbo actress holding off the might of an F5 tornado with a belt strap.

Good stuff!

Eh, the article - in fairness - isn't as horrible, no. It really took a bit of a "reading between the lines" - so to speak - to get to where it was annoying. Like, you can just sense that the reporter talked to people that are ENSO biased, the same people that help formulate government-derived seasonal outlooks; and to that I admit a personal kind of resentment for their methodology, one that rarely incorporates polarward considerations. Seeing as that is my personal hang-up, take for what it is worth.

But that is not all. This years -NAO preponderance...heck, last year's too, and probably for the next 3 or so years this should be anticipated for that matter. It was all 'somewhat' assessable given to the strong correlation - and physically demonstrated reasoning - of the negative solar cycle and the -AO. In defense of the reporter, good luck being charged with the responsibility of conveying that in user-friendly prose to a public whose collective intellect is being ever dulled by the easy of a push-button auto-pap technological society.

That's kind of an unecessary slur John.

On the other hand, who could hold off a tornado with a belt strap more than a determined lesbian?!

[Mr Torchey]

flurried for a couple of minutes, sun now back out although dim sunshine thru a cirrus deck. Radar dried up (as expected)

36

[HoarfrostHubb]

That's kind of an unecessary slur John.

On the other hand, who could hold off a tornado with a belt strap more than a determined lesbian?!

Tip vs author quoting Uccellini...

The commonplace media using a king of winter weather for their own evil purposes? Never!

I do like Helen Hunt for some reason

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm enjoying the light snow falling..it's the only light snow we've got

[Mr Torchey]

I'm enjoying the light snow falling..it's the only light snow we've got

Nice!

Was virga down at sea level save for a few flurries. Enjoy

[ineedsnow]

light snow here wont last long this week is going to suck!

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm enjoying the light snow falling..it's the only light snow we've got

No, there is only thaw and torch in our future. Winter is ova...

This thread is embarrasing...

[CoastalWx]

I'm enjoying the light snow falling..it's the only light snow we've got

You'll have plenty of snow left. It's really only Thursday and Friday that are warm for you...especially Friday.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like the real torch day is Friday. Should get into the 50s easily I would think. With a little luck we might get away with the cold front getting through early on Saturday.

[Cold Miser]

I don't know which gem of a scene I liked more: the scene where the two twisters were like 10 feet apart, or the 1200 pound cow flying curvi-linearly over the hood of a 2000 pound truck, and the truck isn't moving. I think the best one has to be Bill Paxton and that lesbo actress holding off the might of an F5 tornado with a belt strap.

You forgot about the scene where they drive through the house, and up the stairs, but still seem to end up driving out the same floor they went in on.

Meh, movies like that are all fun, and b.s., You can't always take life so serious.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks like the real torch day is Friday. Should get into the 50s easily I would think. With a little luck we might get away with the cold front getting through early on Saturday.

Do you think ORH, MBY will get into the 50s? I would think that if so, only for an hour or 2...

Good call on this 2 weeks out (well 9 days at least)