CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 9am and it's in the upper 30s here already. Forecast temps will bust low. Mid to upper 40s today or will winds off the water keep temps down? Heck of a way to run a winter. Maybe 40 or 41 or so for the high for you. Thicknesses wouldn't really support temps in the high 40s, unless we have 11C/KM lapse rates..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 16 to 32 degrees in 2.5 hours, not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Only 7 more days till vacation N. Maybe I'll be able to grab a snowstorm while up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 16 to 32 degrees in 2.5 hours, not bad! 6 to 36 in 3hr here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 28.1F here... started this morning at 8F or so... There were a few flakes in the air around 8:30 AM Snowmachines just drove down my street headed for the good stuff in the woods... skiing tonight. Sheesh... it never snows after Feb 11 here... never... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Only 7 more days till vacation N. Maybe I'll be able to grab a snowstorm while up there. Comin up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 I don't know why I did this, but I looked at the operational 00z GGEM guidance before much of anything else. And without having seen much of anything else, I still feel compelled to comment about it. The D7 depiction of moderately strong mid level confluence rippling through central and eastern Ontario, with a fairly strong resulting surface PP anomaly drilling a strong low level temperature gradient down as far as middle PA, is not an unacceptable solution for me. The NAO is in fact falling this week and is nearing neutral by next weekend - going negative if you believe the CDC more. While all this is happening, we have been playing Russian Roulettes with these packets of confluence still available to the flow above 45N do to not ever really totally losing the blocking vibe up there. When it is on that "backdoor" idea, as was painted by several deterministic solutions yesterday, and now seeing the 06z GFS (I did just look at the 00z and 06z solutions) back off on the amount of phasing with the SPV, thus taking a weaker lower through central New England as opposed to stronger one up through Ontario, I am leery as to how warm it will actually be beyond Friday. That whole "balmy" characteristic may only be a single day. We get a cool back after a teaser on Monday, then a transition altostrata day with warm at 850 capping residual cool over a snow pack heading into Thursday, then we bust in for a single day on Friday ...who knows to what extreme, then it get cold with backdoor and possibly even mix issue of all things by Saturday. I'm off to checking out the other guidance and ensemble now. Normally, I would bother commenting like this on a GGEM solution ...pretty much ever, but the exception here is that these ideas were floating yesterday and I don't see them as dead to probability in this. Oh, and while on the subject, the 00z GGEM extrapolates into a huge snow pack refit event toward the 24th of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 00z Euro demonstrates how unstable the ECMWF is beyond D5. This is the 3rd different overall mass field depiction I have seen in those time ranges, in 3 consecutive runs. Roll the cosmic dice - wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I don't know why I did this, but I looked at the operational 00z GGEM guidance before much of anything else. And without having seen much of anything else, I still feel compelled to comment about it. The D7 depiction of moderately strong mid level confluence rippling through central and eastern Ontario, with a fairly strong resulting surface PP anomaly drilling a strong low level temperature gradient down as far as middle PA, is not an unacceptable solution for me. The NAO is in fact falling this week and is nearing neutral by next weekend - going negative if you believe the CDC more. While all this is happening, we have been playing Russian Roulettes with these packets of confluence still available to the flow above 45N do to not ever really totally losing the blocking vibe up there. When it is on that "backdoor" idea, as was painted by several deterministic solutions yesterday, and now seeing the 06z GFS (I did just look at the 00z and 06z solutions) back off on the amount of phasing with the SPV, thus taking a weaker lower through central New England as opposed to stronger one up through Ontario, I am leery as to how warm it will actually be beyond Friday. That whole "balmy" characteristic may only be a single day. We get a cool back after a teaser on Monday, then a transition altostrata day with warm at 850 capping residual cool over a snow pack heading into Thursday, then we bust in for a single day on Friday ...who knows to what extreme, then it get cold with backdoor and possibly even mix issue of all things by Saturday. I'm off to checking out the other guidance and ensemble now. Normally, I would bother commenting like this on a GGEM solution ...pretty much ever, but the exception here is that these ideas were floating yesterday and I don't see them as dead to probability in this. Oh, and while on the subject, the 00z GGEM extrapolates into a huge snow pack refit event toward the 24th of the month BOX seemed to think that in the AFD this morning LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...THERE ARE SIGNS OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WITH FROPA BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO REALITY BY SAT OR SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I don't know why I did this, but I looked at the operational 00z GGEM guidance before much of anything else. And without having seen much of anything else, I still feel compelled to comment about it. The D7 depiction of moderately strong mid level confluence rippling through central and eastern Ontario, with a fairly strong resulting surface PP anomaly drilling a strong low level temperature gradient down as far as middle PA, is not an unacceptable solution for me. The NAO is in fact falling this week and is nearing neutral by next weekend - going negative if you believe the CDC more. While all this is happening, we have been playing Russian Roulettes with these packets of confluence still available to the flow above 45N do to not ever really totally losing the blocking vibe up there. When it is on that "backdoor" idea, as was painted by several deterministic solutions yesterday, and now seeing the 06z GFS (I did just look at the 00z and 06z solutions) back off on the amount of phasing with the SPV, thus taking a weaker lower through central New England as opposed to stronger one up through Ontario, I am leery as to how warm it will actually be beyond Friday. That whole "balmy" characteristic may only be a single day. We get a cool back after a teaser on Monday, then a transition altostrata day with warm at 850 capping residual cool over a snow pack heading into Thursday, then we bust in for a single day on Friday ...who knows to what extreme, then it get cold with backdoor and possibly even mix issue of all things by Saturday. I'm off to checking out the other guidance and ensemble now. Normally, I would bother commenting like this on a GGEM solution ...pretty much ever, but the exception here is that these ideas were floating yesterday and I don't see them as dead to probability in this. Oh, and while on the subject, the 00z GGEM extrapolates into a huge snow pack refit event toward the 24th of the month Yeah, the back door idea may have some merit...I mean how often do we see these in Caribou 7 days out, only to have them rip through HFD..lol. I just want to see a little more evidence, because I'm not sold on it, but I wouldn't throw the idea out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 00z Euro demonstrates how unstable the ECMWF is beyond D5. This is the 3rd different overall mass field depiction I have seen in those time ranges, in 3 consecutive runs. Roll the cosmic dice - wow. Deep southwest troughs FTL with the euro beyond d5. I'm not even talking about this event...it def struggles at times with those features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yeah, the back door idea may have some merit...I mean how often do we see these in Caribou 7 days out, only to have them rip through HFD..lol. I just want to see a little more evidence, because I'm not sold on it, but I wouldn't throw the idea out. To mention, the Euro's idea of the June looking weather map on D8 on in the middle of February is about as antithetic to climo as one can conceivably imagine out side of an asteroid impact - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Deep southwest troughs FTL with the euro beyond d5. I'm not even talking about this event...it def struggles at times with those features. Absolutely! I think I may have even mentioned this yesterday myself. I thought that was corrected - but I am not sure if I read that formally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Here's the deal with this gig on Monday: 12 hours from now a better sounding of the available dynamics will begin over western N/A. If that comes in with more potency in the southern component of the total trough geometry compared to what the assimilation schemes have been providing us, than this will get corrected S - mostly likely - and 50F will be less likely on Monday. Either a N or S correction are 50/50 imo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Man the GFS is warm Friday. 70s for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 GFS looks warmer on Friday and Friday night compared to the previous run. Friday night wouldn't get below 40 most likely with that depiction....then FROPA Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 GFS looks warmer on Friday and Friday night compared to the previous run. Friday night wouldn't get below 40 most likely with that depiction....then FROPA Saturday morning. Yes - the difference from run to run appear to be keyed into the amount of phasing with the SPV up in Canada: when less, we get weaker solutions farther S that offer potential to actually wind up cold for us in SNE, because llv polar air tends to wind that battle at this time of year; when more, a stronger resulting low GL cuts and we get a full on barotropic hybrid assault all the way to Maine. Climo says no - Backdoor threats change everything too - GFS is basically on and off with whether said phasing will result - Other depictions vary - Interesting week, albeit somewhat tedious - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 00z Euro demonstrates how unstable the ECMWF is beyond D5. This is the 3rd different overall mass field depiction I have seen in those time ranges, in 3 consecutive runs. Roll the cosmic dice - wow. yeah the op models are essentially waffling every single run to run, from full on torch to muted torch. its funny to see them change every other run, but i know how this will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 the latest NCEP models and RGEM now track the clipper NORTH of me. that is the first set of runs to do so. not a good sign at all. no sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yes - the difference from run to run appear to be keyed into the amount of phasing with the SPV up in Canada: when less, we get weaker solutions farther S that offer potential to actually wind up cold for us in SNE, because llv polar air tends to wind that battle at this time of year; when more, a stronger resulting low GL cuts and we get a full on barotropic hybrid assault all the way to Maine. Climo says no - Backdoor threats change everything too - GFS is basically on and off with whether said phasing will result - Other depictions vary - Interesting week, albeit somewhat tedious - So what would your forecast be Thursday-Sat? And how warm will the warmest temps be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Cloudy and 31.5 currently..Looks like some snowshowers not too far to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Hit 42 until the winds started raging. Great day out there, snow is melting down nicely. Only a couple of more days and it should be mostly gone even the snowbanks. Bring on Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Comin up? yes sa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Scooter is just waiting to type that the Euro has 70+ for 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Man 00z ensemble means showing a classic gradient SWF / gradient pattern here. AWT ... -EPO / weak -NAO developing, -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 yeah...it's going to 50 on Monday here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Man 00z ensemble means showing a classic gradient SWF / gradient pattern here. AWT ... -EPO / weak -NAO developing, -PNA. So a good pattern north of I-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 So a good pattern north of I-90? For everyone in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Scooter is just waiting to type that the Euro has 70+ for 3 days You think I like typing that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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