nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Great pattern for New England snows if we can hold it... SE ridge is a bit too strong....850s would probably warm above 0C as the low approached in that pattern. It has the overrunning look but you want the cold to be a bit deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 What an amazing day outside! 34 sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 29/3 Sunny, high clouds 26" snow pack holding strong Heavy Heavy winter this weekend. BTW I could tell the euro sucked when it went from 12 to 230 with like 3 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 29/3 Sunny, high clouds 26" snow pack holding strong Heavy Heavy winter this weekend. BTW I could tell the euro sucked when it went from 12 to 230 with like 3 posts. late feb- march will detrmine wether this is a good year or a great year. i have about 78 on season my best guess right now is 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 SE ridge is a bit too strong....850s would probably warm above 0C as the low approached in that pattern. It has the overrunning look but you want the cold to be a bit deeper. I disagree. That look is perfect because the impulse riding the boundary remains week but moisture laden allowing for cold to hold. If it's a more wound up system, then I think you'd be correct. Of course, it's latitude driven so your BY might suffer vs places further north. Doesn't matter though...d10 verification is nothing to write home about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Nah this Euro run is overrout here - 1) this models is no better or worse than the GFS beyond D5.5 2) it almost appears this run carries vestiges of digging heights too deeply into the SW ...subsequently erroneously too high with downstream heights - and old bias of the ECM that was supposed to have been corrected. Still, that looks suspiciously like the same thing there. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Saturday is an inferno on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Saturday is an inferno on the euro. 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I disagree. That look is perfect because the impulse riding the boundary remains week but moisture laden allowing for cold to hold. If it's a more wound up system, then I think you'd be correct. Of course, it's latitude driven so your BY might suffer vs places further north. Doesn't matter though...d10 verification is nothing to write home about.... 12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 70? 8C 850 temps with good sw flow, that's 60+ anyways, IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN. This was a different setup compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA. I wouldn't worry about the d10 op prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 8C 850 temps with good sw flow, that's 60+ anyways, IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN. This was a different setup compared to 00z. What's up with Monday being so warm now? WAA from a clipper or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 8C 850 temps with good sw flow, that's 60+ anyways, IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN. This was a different setup compared to 00z. lol, I know you're just talking about the 12z euro, not your forecast. Let's hope the 00z tonight agrees with last nights rather then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 What's up with Monday being so warm now? WAA from a clipper or something? that's been there for days really. always had a mild look it was just pinpointing whether it would be sun or mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 What's up with Monday being so warm now? WAA from a clipper or something? Anytime you have a low going north, it's going to warm up. Pretty good sw flow, but any cloud cover would mute it, likely near and north of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA. so what'll it be...."In the Arms of The Angel?" or "Wicked Game"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA. But the one thing left out is EPO. I thought it looked somewhat ok. Also, arguably a far east based NAO with Icelandic ridging. But my comments are geared towards the impulse it's showing just beyond d10. At this point (late Feb by d10), I know better than to ask for sustained cold. But give me 2 of every 3 days and good snow chances and I can be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I disagree. That look is perfect because the impulse riding the boundary remains week but moisture laden allowing for cold to hold. If it's a more wound up system, then I think you'd be correct. Of course, it's latitude driven so your BY might suffer vs places further north. Doesn't matter though...d10 verification is nothing to write home about.... yeah it's not that bad really. who knows what will actually verify but at face value that would produce some wintry precip in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 so what'll it be...."In the Arms of The Angel?" or "Wicked Game"? Go to 40 seconds in, and then picture the garage door shutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 GFS ensembles looked pretty good in the 11-15 day. A little bit of ridging into eastern Greenland, and very strong NPAC ridge pushing into western AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Go to 40 seconds in, and then picture the garage door shutting. :lmao: this makes me laugh uncontrollably. forehead resting on the steering wheel...arm reaching for the ignition...kocin book open to jan 96 on the passenger seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 :lmao: this makes me laugh uncontrollably. forehead resting on the steering wheel...arm reaching for the ignition...kocin book open to jan 96 on the passenger seat. Water from the melting snow, running down the driveway..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 It's interesting how this whole thing is delayed a bit now. Euro ensembles not buying any potential backdoor either, but they do have the polar boundary across the border of Canada and NNE. Euro op was a few hundred miles nw of that, by hr 192. This possibly may be a product of too much digging as John alluded to, and therefore the front is slower to come back south. I'd still watch for something sneaky on Friday. Still a week out, but I don't see a reason to shy away from the warmth right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 It's interesting how this whole thing is delayed a bit now. Euro ensembles not buying any potential backdoor either, but they do have the polar boundary across the border of Canada and NNE. Euro op was a few hundred miles nw of that, by hr 192. This possibly may be a product of too much digging as John alluded to, and therefore the front is slower to come back south. I'd still watch for something sneaky on Friday. Still a week out, but I don't see a reason to not shy away from the warmth right now. so you are thinking cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 so you are thinking cooler? Writing too quick FTL. I meant I don't see a reason to shy away from the warmth. Banking on these back door fronts, even if they are possible, is risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Saturday is an inferno on the euro. I love it. 12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA. Yep, nice and non-snowy. 8C 850 temps with good sw flow, that's 60+ anyways, IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN. This was a different setup compared to 00z. Not here but I'll take low 50's on a nice SW wind while you guys roast. 32 here today. Torch begins Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I have no idea how you guys keep talking about weather when absolutely nothing is happening for a week plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Canadian ensembles try to bring a front through on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 this is horrifically off-topic...not even close to weather related...buh it is UCONN related so that brings us to CT and CTBlizz and some of the UCONN students so why not? plus...there's snow on the ground in the video. maybe you've seen this but regardless...this is crazy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 this is horrifically off-topic...not even close to weather related...buh it is UCONN related so that brings us to CT and CTBlizz and some of the UCONN students so why not? plus...there's snow on the ground in the video. maybe you've seen this but regardless...this is crazy: That was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.