Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Early spring...or poorly timed thaw...


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 936
  • Created
  • Last Reply

29/3

Sunny, high clouds

26" snow pack holding strong

Heavy Heavy winter this weekend.

BTW I could tell the euro sucked when it went from 12 to 230 with like 3 posts. laugh.gif

late feb- march will detrmine wether this is a good year or a great year.

i have about 78 on season my best guess right now is 92.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SE ridge is a bit too strong....850s would probably warm above 0C as the low approached in that pattern. It has the overrunning look but you want the cold to be a bit deeper.

I disagree. That look is perfect because the impulse riding the boundary remains week but moisture laden allowing for cold to hold. If it's a more wound up system, then I think you'd be correct. Of course, it's latitude driven so your BY might suffer vs places further north. Doesn't matter though...d10 verification is nothing to write home about....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nah this Euro run is overrout here -

1) this models is no better or worse than the GFS beyond D5.5

2) it almost appears this run carries vestiges of digging heights too deeply into the SW ...subsequently erroneously too high with downstream heights - and old bias of the ECM that was supposed to have been corrected. Still, that looks suspiciously like the same thing there.

we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree. That look is perfect because the impulse riding the boundary remains week but moisture laden allowing for cold to hold. If it's a more wound up system, then I think you'd be correct. Of course, it's latitude driven so your BY might suffer vs places further north. Doesn't matter though...d10 verification is nothing to write home about....

12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA.

I wouldn't worry about the d10 op prog.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA.

so what'll it be...."In the Arms of The Angel?" or "Wicked Game"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA.

But the one thing left out is EPO. I thought it looked somewhat ok. Also, arguably a far east based NAO with Icelandic ridging. But my comments are geared towards the impulse it's showing just beyond d10. At this point (late Feb by d10), I know better than to ask for sustained cold. But give me 2 of every 3 days and good snow chances and I can be happy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree. That look is perfect because the impulse riding the boundary remains week but moisture laden allowing for cold to hold. If it's a more wound up system, then I think you'd be correct. Of course, it's latitude driven so your BY might suffer vs places further north. Doesn't matter though...d10 verification is nothing to write home about....

yeah it's not that bad really. who knows what will actually verify but at face value that would produce some wintry precip in SNE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting how this whole thing is delayed a bit now. Euro ensembles not buying any potential backdoor either, but they do have the polar boundary across the border of Canada and NNE. Euro op was a few hundred miles nw of that, by hr 192. This possibly may be a product of too much digging as John alluded to, and therefore the front is slower to come back south. I'd still watch for something sneaky on Friday. Still a week out, but I don't see a reason to shy away from the warmth right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting how this whole thing is delayed a bit now. Euro ensembles not buying any potential backdoor either, but they do have the polar boundary across the border of Canada and NNE. Euro op was a few hundred miles nw of that, by hr 192. This possibly may be a product of too much digging as John alluded to, and therefore the front is slower to come back south. I'd still watch for something sneaky on Friday. Still a week out, but I don't see a reason to not shy away from the warmth right now.

so you are thinking cooler?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saturday is an inferno on the euro.

I love it.

12z ECM looks terrible in the long range if you ask me...massive -PNA, +NAO, polar vortex over Eastern Siberia. Pretty much game over for winter here, at least until the last days of February, if the Euro is right. GFS looked a bit better but still horrid with the -PNA.

Yep, nice and non-snowy.

8C 850 temps with good sw flow, that's 60+ anyways, IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN.

This was a different setup compared to 00z.

Not here but I'll take low 50's on a nice SW wind while you guys roast.

32 here today. Torch begins Saturday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this is horrifically off-topic...not even close to weather related...buh it is UCONN related so that brings us to CT and CTBlizz and some of the UCONN students so why not? plus...there's snow on the ground in the video.

maybe you've seen this but regardless...this is crazy:

That was great.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...