Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 if you're worried about serious warmth. i suppose. tough to say without knowing for certain how well we mix and how dirty the column is etc. just looking at the overall syntopic set-up, i'd lean pretty warm right now for SNE. even MEX is hitting positive 6-9F departures at day 6/7 already around parts of the area. sometimes a good red flag. of course, we get any sneaky boundary and that'll bust. speaking of MOS...look at the 12z MAV/MET at ORH for the remainder of today...WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 31 sunny Perfection out there! Great weekend to get out and enjoy the snowcover, sledding galore, car wash next week in shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 31 sunny Perfection out there! Great weekend to get out and enjoy the snowcover, sledding galore, car wash next week in shorts! Not likely ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 This GFS run has implicaitons suggesting icing issues over a large area near and N of 40N ...possibly as near as D7 despite the exact sfc depiction - and it is not unheard off to have the polar boundary wind up S of the ridge rim when you have S/Ws ripping E just N of the border with Canada... Backside confluence(s) over snow pack can definitely exert a lower troposphere cold. Of course, that is predicated on the idea that the 500mb is reasonably accurate - lol Provided there's much left. Also you don't like icing events this time of year due to sun angle..remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Not likely ... Whats that Tippy? If its in the 50s I am in shorts Looking forward to 40-45 tomorrow on the sledding hill, man is that going to feel awesome, heck the sun feels incredible today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Whats that Tippy? If its in the 50s I am in shorts Looking forward to 40-45 tomorrow on the sledding hill, man is that going to feel awesome, heck the sun feels incredible today! actually, it is true that a 54F temperature on February 17 is a lot different than the same degree on June 17 - haha. Buuut, I do also wonder if this isn't all going to end up colder anyway. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 i suppose. tough to say without knowing for certain how well we mix and how dirty the column is etc. just looking at the overall syntopic set-up, i'd lean pretty warm right now for SNE. even MEX is hitting positive 6-9F departures at day 6/7 already around parts of the area. sometimes a good red flag. of course, we get any sneaky boundary and that'll bust. speaking of MOS...look at the 12z MAV/MET at ORH for the remainder of today...WTF? what you do mean by that? 60s? 50s? Based on the 12z GFS or a general forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 This GFS run has implicaitons suggesting icing issues over a large area near and N of 40N ...possibly as near as D7 despite the exact sfc depiction - and it is not unheard off to have the polar boundary wind up S of the ridge rim when you have S/Ws ripping E just N of the border with Canada... Backside confluence(s) over snow pack can definitely exert a lower troposphere cold. Of course, that is predicated on the idea that the 500mb is reasonably accurate - lol Based on its 72 hour performance on the Saturday event, and it's tendency to be too far south/southeast with every feature all winter no matter where it originates...doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 actually, it is true that a 54F temperature on February 17 is a lot different than the same degree on June 17 - haha. Buuut, I do also wonder if this isn't all going to end up colder anyway. Hmmm. Who knows? We have no control over it, just enjoy whatever comes our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 12z GFS BUFKIT gets up to 12C on Friday PVD...that's the warmest location I can find. The Euro was warmer last night, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Heh, something else to consider - backdoor coldfront. 12z GGEM has a pretty good looking one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Heh, something else to consider - backdoor coldfront. 12z GGEM has a pretty good looking one. Getting in some practice for the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I don't care how it happens..As long as we somehow reduce/eliminate the torch is fine with all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Heh, something else to consider - backdoor coldfront. 12z GGEM has a pretty good looking one. yeah the GGEM is also much improved from its previous runs, less heights building across the continent and more of a flatter flow. nice cold air lurking and even a strong hi pressure to the north at day 6 the GEM also has a warm bias in the longer range. i wonder if the snowpack in the south and the Plains is having any effect on dampening the heat ridge that was supposed to build into the Canadian prairies as we move closer? i know LEK had pointed that out in the Upstate thread. i could still see the torch returning in all its glory though, still got a couple days to sort it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Wait... you're cool again! It's pretty obvious the models were way overdoing the waa and SW winds going deep into Quebec. Like I said days ago, with two feet of snowcover through most of NE (at least) and the coldest SSTs yet in the GOM, any warmup is going to struggle. Infact I doubt we break out of the 40s at best in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Anyone have 12z euro QPF for the clipper on Monday? Looks decent although mostly for NNE probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Who knows? We have no control over it, just enjoy whatever comes our way! Very rational perspective - I'm looking forward to melting this persistent glacier on the NYC streets (in the city, snow is often a major nuisance - will always love the cover in the country but in the city, it gets gross quickly and poses challenges to pedestrians) and either setting the stage for a reload or opening the floodgates to spring. I think NYC touches 60 next week with that roaring WSW flow, while perhaps 50 gets up to perhaps the Pike? All I know is that there will be a huge snowpack gradient once the torch (or mini-torch) is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 the euro torch is the worst yet up here at least. not necessarily the 850s, but the setup. backdoor front washes out, highest heights yet into the east well into my area, very threatening look..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Anyone have 12z euro QPF for the clipper on Monday? Looks decent although mostly for NNE probably .01 for boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Delayed but not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Delayed but not denied Detes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 the euro torch is the worst yet up here at least. not necessarily the 850s, but the setup. backdoor front washes out, highest heights yet into the east well into my area, very threatening look..... Well at least on the Euro you can now see Sunday's (2/20) fropa. You can also see the overrunning snows poised to get us late D10/11. But we digress.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Testes Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Great pattern for New England snows if we can hold it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 .01 for boston Looks like it would be rain for them and for me anyway. I should've posted that in the NNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 what you do mean by that? 60s? 50s? Based on the 12z GFS or a general forecast? All of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 so winter / snow pack CXL? snow chances look like diahrea for the next 10 days 'nice" bit of melting on v-day say the news casters....i hope it melts right into their basements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 so winter / snow pack CXL? snow chances look like diahrea for the next 10 days 'nice" bit of melting on v-day say the news casters....i hope it melts right into their basements. You seem so much kinder in person....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Euro looks like 1 day of 50's one day near 70 cp..then the front Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Euro looks like 1 day of 50's one day near 70 cp..then the front Sunday Where do you see 70? The 90s infected your thinking.....that just never happened before then (or since). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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