CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Probably a bit of that. We're getting some wave interference from the disturbance off the coast, producing a broader trough, and limiting the extent of PVA and associated lift. There is still a signal there. Good RH, LI spike, and good PVA..but It's tough to see a well defined front at the surface. Maybe it's just some shsn that move through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Weak lift would kind of make more sense to me...the omega profile looked like there was strong subsidence from high pressure. LOL I missed the POSITIVE omega values. Yeah, don't think that happens. Looks like decent Q vector convergence later in the afternoon ahead of the s/w that should definitely lend itself to a period of lift, just not quite what we'd see with a sharper wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 There is still a signal there. Good RH, LI spike, and good PVA..but It's tough to see a well defined front at the surface. Maybe it's just some shsn that move through? Yeah, the normally favored areas for upslope could cash in for 1-2". Otherwise expecting just scattered snow showers and a dusting for portions of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Just waiting for the deck to be reshuffled, then we see what hand we are dealt. Could not go BTW for 3 months now, could we? Maybe we are done, but we have time. We will know a lot more mid week. Meanwhile im enjoying the sun. My snowpack is officially broken now. That made essentially about 53 straight days here which is staggering. Especially considering it was never horrifically cold for an extended period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Heh, not sure these runs are insisting on taking the sfc low so far N of the vortmax through the cold air that way...but, anyway, we are 24-36 hours away from the dynamics coming off the Pacific. I think there is some chance yet that the system slated for 84-96 hours ends up a little more S should said relay off the Pac prove more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 There is a weaker wave running ahead of the main low that wants to bring some light snow on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Does anyone have a good re-analysis source? I am interesting in the 1998 historic ice over central New England and Ontario - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Hopefully it's cloudy all weekend to mitigate the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Does anyone have a good re-analysis source? I am interesting in the 1998 historic ice over central New England and Ontario - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Big thaw coming. Big, big thaw coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/IceStorm1998/ice98.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 That PV on the GFS is really trying to exert itself. Little subtle shifts south with that low coming out of the Plains, by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 That PV on the GFS is really trying to exert itself. Little subtle shifts south with that low coming out of the Plains, by Friday. Tha would help squelch the torch south right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....gov/ncepreanal/ Thanx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Yeah it's trying on Friday to sink that boundary south..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Thanx! The BtV link is awesome http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/janstorm/janstorm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Tha would help squelch the torch south right? Yeah it's still very warm, but that boundary sinks down to the KCON area, by Friday evening. A little shift south on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Big weenie coming. Big, big weenie coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Does anyone have a good re-analysis source? I am interesting in the 1998 historic ice over central New England and Ontario - in terms of the ice, i doubt that setup duration will ever be recreated again total fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 thats a pretty significant jump on the GFS previous runs had it in central ontario, then last runs ran it right over the ottawa valley, now its over central VT go go PV! talk about one of those setups that could go in the crapper at any moment though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 in terms of the ice, i doubt that setup duration will ever be recreated again total fluke That was a catastrophic storm here with .75"-1.00" ice accreation here, Places were without power for 4-6 weeks, Devestating, and something i will never forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 That was a catastrophic storm here with .75"-1.00" ice accreation here, Places were without power for 4-6 weeks, Devestating, and something i will never forget i had 3 and a half inches of ice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 thats a pretty significant jump on the GFS previous runs had it in central ontario, then last runs ran it right over the ottawa valley, now its over central VT go go PV! talk about one of those setups that could go in the crapper at any moment though lol Yeah, I'd still say the warmth is on down here, but these model runs have me questioning the evolution and duration. The euro should be interesting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 looks like a little mid/outer cape OES possible on tuesday AM before the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 This GFS run has implicaitons suggesting icing issues over a large area near and N of 40N ...possibly as near as D7 despite the exact sfc depiction - and it is not unheard off to have the polar boundary wind up S of the ridge rim when you have S/Ws ripping E just N of the border with Canada... Backside confluence(s) over snow pack can definitely exert a lower troposphere cold. Of course, that is predicated on the idea that the 500mb is reasonably accurate - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 850s max out at like +4 to +5 on the GFS on Friday....that really isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Yeah, I'd still say the warmth is on down here, but these model runs have me questioning the evolution and duration. The euro should be interesting today. well i mentioned it in the central forum IF (big if) the heights at higher latittude are pressing down due W-E cross-contiental like the GFS is implying, i am certain that IF the storm is a pure W-E runner, it will be modeled too far north most likely. this is from years of obs and climo IMBY in mid-feb. could there be an expcetion? i suppose, but this is an odd setup for this time of year for here, and our climo say lean South for a BZ W-E runner. of course the other option is the storm passes from the Plains well NW into Superior torching everyone, i could see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 This GFS run has implicaitons suggesting icing issues over a large area near and N of 40N ...possibly as near as D7 despite the exact sfc depiction - and it is not unheard off to have the polar boundary wind up S of the ridge rim in when you have S/W ripping E just N of the boarder with Canada... Backside confluence(s) over snow pack can definitely exert a lower troposphere cold. Of course, that is predicated on the idea that the 500mb is reasonably accurate - lol That's why the euro should be interesting. It might have a better handle on any potential of what you just described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 850s max out at like +4 to +5 on the GFS on Friday....that really isn't too bad. in what sense do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 in what sense do you mean? if you're worried about serious warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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