Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Scott thank you! Great read and thanks for giving us your thoughts, as a professional you dont have to but to take the time is awesome! I think interior NE does very well after feb 20th or so, I think climo will start to take over and play a big role come later feb and march like it normally does, its been an incredible winter, and looks like I may hold onto a snowpack for nearly 60 days straight, truly incredible for sw ct on the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I need a 10-12" high moisture content cement maker. I long for shear pins snapping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 EVen the 18z GFS wants to drive the coldfront close to sne on Thursday, but gets hung up in NNE. It's close. The other issue is that it's possible the torch is prolonged into early Saturday morning. exactly what i was thinking when i viewed the run. we are getting there, hopefuly these trends can continue to ooze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I have a new appreciation for snowpack. Something I am not used to. I love it. Last week really bothered me, and I know later next week will be horrible here, but I'm hoping for a decent end to February. theres nothing worse than losing a spectacular snowpack you have built through hard sweat and tears and have had around like a faithful dog for a long time. worst weather pain imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I hate brown grass and mud/dirt/rotting leaves showing in the winter too. Snow that is getting dirty and crusty is ugly too, but its way less uglier than the former option. This mild break next week will be annoying but it won't be a back breaker I don't think. It might not be all that damaging if its limited to a couple days in upper 40s to near 50 with relatively low dews. Its the 55F with 50F dewpoints with rain and fog in the warm sector of big lakes cutters that really do the most damage....or a moister airmass that keeps overnight lows in the 40s like we saw in Jan 2008. But that was a much much warmer airmass. We had like 36 hours of 850s at +12C and over 48h of 850s near +10C. this is exactly the info i wanted to know and was going to ask. thanks. i cant imagine it will be that bad.....that was a once in a long while type of torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm not as concerned about the NAO domain as the EPO. That will be the key to the turn of events. The NAO will probably stick around neutral or slightly negative, BUT looks like the overall average height anomaly in the domain will be negative, thus still yielding strong UL confluence over New England and southeast Canada. Just like Scott was saying, looks like a gradient pattern coming up. If a solid -EPO ridge verifies, the start to March could be VERY cold over the Midwest, with a train of moderate to significant snow storms tracking from the central Plains into the OV / GL and New England ... a la Dec 2007 and Dec 2008 ... ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm not as concerned about the NAO domain as the EPO. That will be the key to the turn of events. The NAO will probably stick around neutral or slightly negative, BUT looks like the overall average height anomaly in the domain will be negative, thus still yielding strong UL confluence over New England and southeast Canada. Just like Scott was saying, looks like a gradient pattern coming up. If a solid -EPO ridge verifies, the start to March could be VERY cold over the Midwest, with a train of moderate to significant snow storms tracking from the central Plains into the OV / GL and New England ... a la Dec 2007 and Dec 2008 ... ?? We'd like at least one blocking NAO episode to come back if we want a monster....otherwise its probably more moderate events like you said, though you can sneak some bigger events in there. But most of the large bombs in early March had a nice -NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Will, Would the NAM be showing the windex (possible) here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 We'd like at least one blocking NAO episode to come back if we want a monster....otherwise its probably more moderate events like you said, though you can sneak some bigger events in there. But most of the large bombs in early March had a nice -NAO block. I think the NAO becomes more important with the shorter wavelengths in March. Storms like March 1960 had great blocking in the North Atlantic, so that would be the key to having a large Nor'easter. If we start to see a gradient pattern setting up in late February/early March, it will be difficult for the coastal plain and benefit the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 That is running N/S along VT/NY, MA/NY border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 This is old, but here is last year's Jan 28 event on Youtube... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 How does the windex event look for tomorrow? Still game on? Euro looks terible Wed-Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Looks like once we get through late next week things get to be more fun again. The Euro torch holds some low level chill...not sure why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 <br />Looks like once we get through late next week things get to be more fun again. The Euro torch holds some low level chill...not sure why...<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />usually the mr/lr models rush warmup/overdoing them too. The violent warmup will probably be muted somewhat compared to what theyre showing D7 \10 the past several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 BOX has upped my snow chances for Sun-Mon, even if it is a light refresher. I think the pos. WINDEX will be (of course) in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 <br /><br /><br />usually the mr/lr models rush warmup/overdoing them too. The violent warmup will probably be muted somewhat compared to what theyre showing D7 \10 the past several days Wait... you're cool again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Well as far as the overnight developments go on the ensembles, they are really hitting the NPAC ridging hard, with ridging pushing into AK. Also, the euro ensembles want to bump a little ridging into Greenland. All of this seems to work in tandem to bring colder weather into the nrn US in the 11-15 day. The thing is, we really don't need a monster -NAO when you have that ridging near western AK. A little ridging in Greenland almost acts like a wall to the PV and it really has no where to go, but south. The euro op is doing some funky things. It brings down two cold shots during this torch period. One is on Wednesday night, and the other...more meaningful one is on Friday Night. So the torch is somewhat extended on the models, but not with the potential for it not to be horrible...though for a day or two...it could be mild. Better hope it's right because the GFS is a 72 hr warm shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Well as far as the overnight developments go on the ensembles, they are really hitting the NPAC ridging hard, with ridging pushing into AK. Also, the euro ensembles want to bump a little ridging into Greenland. All of this seems to work in tandem to bring colder weather into the nrn US in the 11-15 day. The thing is, we really don't need a monster -NAO when you have that ridging near western AK. A little ridging in Greenland almost acts like a wall to the PV and it really has no where to go, but south. The euro op is doing some funky things. It brings down two cold shots during this torch period. One is on Wednesday night, and the other...more meaningful one is on Friday Night. So the torch is somewhat extended on the models, but not with the potential for it not to be horrible...though for a day or two...it could be mild. Better hope it's right because the GFS is a 72 hr warm shot. It has a cold shot Wed nite? I missed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 No chatter on the windex event?? Is it gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 No chatter on the windex event?? Is it gone Will and Ginxy know how to plug the numbers into the formula... me, I know the formula but don't know how to get the data into it. I think you are in a good spot for it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Will and Ginxy know how to plug the numbers into the formula... me, I know the formula but don't know how to get the data into it. I think you are in a good spot for it, though. BOX doesn't even mention it.. I don't see a bigsignal for it from the 00z runs..but not sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 BOX doesn't even mention it.. I don't see a bigsignal for it from the 00z runs..but not sure? If anything, they downplay the idea COLD FRONT PASSES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 BOX doesn't even mention it.. I don't see a bigsignal for it from the 00z runs..but not sure? Bye bye baby, fading faster than the Royals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Amazing only 5 readers....I think exhaustion and reality that the Charlie Sheen pattern of snow has ended and it may not be "all out" for the next week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Where is the lift with this vortmax on Saturday? 06z NAM BUFKIT for ORH is showing omegas of positive 5-10 in the low and mid-levels on Saturday afternoon/evening. Too much subsidence with that system off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Amazing only 5 readers....I think exhaustion and reality that the Charlie Sheen pattern of snow has ended and it may not be "all out" for the next week or two. Just waiting for the deck to be reshuffled, then we see what hand we are dealt. Could not go BTW for 3 months now, could we? Maybe we are done, but we have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Any opinions on the sunday clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 A bit north but maybe we get a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Where is the lift with this vortmax on Saturday? 06z NAM BUFKIT for ORH is showing omegas of positive 5-10 in the low and mid-levels on Saturday afternoon/evening. Too much subsidence with that system off the coast? Probably a bit of that. We're getting some wave interference from the disturbance off the coast, producing a broader trough, and limiting the extent of PVA and associated lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Probably a bit of that. We're getting some wave interference from the disturbance off the coast, producing a broader trough, and limiting the extent of PVA and associated lift. Weak lift would kind of make more sense to me...the omega profile looked like there was strong subsidence from high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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