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Early spring...or poorly timed thaw...


Typhoon Tip

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The pattern after the torch is looking better as we get closer. I think we can sneak out some decent threats in that. Especially the potential for overrunning after the front moves through.

The torch or thaw period however severe it is really is not that unexpected. Well at least I hope it isn't/wasn't. I started a thread about it on February 5th.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:41 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

Was just gonna say i rally hope we can avoid trolling

You know that's impossible.

I can't believe nw AR got 2' of snow. OK with a possible all time low temp last night. Banding at its best in ne OK and nw AR. Funny thing is, it will be vaporized in a few days, down there.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're going to lose have of the pack, regardless, so yes.

SO how will you get out and enjoy that weather? Once all your snow is gone Friday afternoon..the grass will be mud..too much salt and grime to play hoops or bike...not quite warm enough to lay out and tan...

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern after the torch is looking better as we get closer. I think we can sneak out some decent threats in that. Especially the potential for overrunning after the front moves through.

The torch or thaw period however severe it is really is not that unexpected. Well at least I hope it isn't/wasn't. I started a thread about it on February 5th.

12z runs were much better today. I've noticed how even the slightest hint at better blocking over Greenland, models shift much colder. It shows you how volatile the pattern is. Just a subtle hint in height rises either by AK or Greenland, and the outcome in sensible wx is huge. To quote Ray, a penguin can fart in Greenland and send the polar boundary south.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 6:58 PM, CT Blizz said:

Overunning snows?

Interesting change today.. Maybe one day nearin the 40's-near 50 and that's it? Would be awesome

I dont think this warm up will to long or to bad. Some may just touch 45-49 ish range at the peak of the warm up. And then we could re load cold winter weather.

I wont get to worried just yet.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:44 PM, CoastalWx said:

You know that's impossible.

I can't believe nw AR got 2' of snow. OK with a possible all time low temp last night. Banding at its best in ne OK and nw AR. Funny thing is, it will be vaporized in a few days, down there.

Yea saw some 17-1 ratios, sick for that part of the country.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:45 PM, CT Blizz said:

SO how will you get out and enjoy that weather? Once all your snow is gone Friday afternoon..the grass will be mud..too much salt and grime to play hoops or bike...not quite warm enough to lay out and tan...

Eh, just let him b**ch...but hopefully we don't get into a stupid war this thread.

I do think its funny how he has totally changed his tune again. Once he got the HECS and had a good snow pack, he was all for smaller events to add to the seasonal total...but now he's back to poo-pooing anything unless its a big storm threat. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I just thought its funny...you can only hide your winter fetishes for so long. :lol:

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern after the torch is looking better as we get closer. I think we can sneak out some decent threats in that. Especially the potential for overrunning after the front moves through.

The torch or thaw period however severe it is really is not that unexpected. Well at least I hope it isn't/wasn't. I started a thread about it on February 5th.

This^^^^^^^^

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:45 PM, CT Blizz said:

SO how will you get out and enjoy that weather? Once all your snow is gone Friday afternoon..the grass will be mud..too much salt and grime to play hoops or bike...not quite warm enough to lay out and tan...

Not gonna bother rationalizing my preference because I don't feel the need to.

I'd just like to fast foreward to March....no trolling; just expressing my sentiment.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Eh, just let him b**ch...but hopefully we don't get into a stupid war this thread.

I do think its funny how he has totally changed his tune again. Once he got the HECS and had a good snow pack, he was all for smaller events to add to the seasonal total...but now he's back to poo-pooing anything unless its a big storm threat. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I just thought its funny...you can only hide your winter fetishes for so long. :lol:

Exactly..the old GAY was always there..was just masked behind the yardstick and his ever present snow pants that he donned as walked around his neighborhood.

My fetish is well documented..Snowcover, and continuous light-moderate events to track with a big one thrown in every now and again

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not gonna bother rationalizing my preference because I don't feel the need to.

I'd just like to fast foreward to March....no trolling; just expressing my sentiment.

I think you're short changing the end of February and putting all your eggs in one basket with a big March.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Eh, just let him b**ch...but hopefully we don't get into a stupid war this thread.

I do think its funny how he has totally changed his tune again. Once he got the HECS and had a good snow pack, he was all for smaller events to add to the seasonal total...but now he's back to poo-pooing anything unless its a big storm threat. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I just thought its funny...you can only hide your winter fetishes for so long. :lol:

No.

The 1-3"ers lose their appeal after half the snowpack is gone.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:50 PM, CT Blizz said:

Exactly..the old GAY was always there..was just masked behind the yardstick and his ever present snow pants that he donned as walked around his neighborhood.

My fetish is well documented..Snowcover, and continuous light-moderate events to track with a big one thrown in every now and again

I have a new appreciation for snowpack. Something I am not used to. I love it. Last week really bothered me, and I know later next week will be horrible here, but I'm hoping for a decent end to February.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

I have a new appreciation for snowpack. Something I am not used to. I love it. Last week really bothered me, and I know later next week will be horrible here, but I'm hoping for a decent end to February.

Yeah I need to have snow on the ground. Period..I hate winter with brown grass..It's why I agonize over warmth, and Grinch storms. I don't care how old, crusty, discolored it gets. I need to have snow on the grond in the winter for my own personal well being . So I am just praying we get thru this inferno with some semblance of it left

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:57 PM, CT Blizz said:

Yeah I need to have snow on the ground. Period..I hate winter with brown grass..It's why I agonize over warmth, and Grinch storms. I don't care how old, crusty, discolored it gets. I need to have snow on the grond in the winter for my own personal well being . So I am just praying we get thru this inferno with some semblance of it left

Well unless it'6 60+ for 3 days with 2" of rain, I think you'll have a good chunk of it left. Sun prone areas here will torch, but I'll just make sure to only look at snow covered back yards...lol.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 11:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just wanted to make it to the next stormy period with a great snow pack in tact and that doesn't look to happen.

Well you live in a wooded area, so I think you'll be ok. Colder night temps will help you, unlike the hills I think. You'll take a big hit, but I think you'll be ok.

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  On 2/10/2011 at 10:57 PM, CT Blizz said:

Yeah I need to have snow on the ground. Period..I hate winter with brown grass..It's why I agonize over warmth, and Grinch storms. I don't care how old, crusty, discolored it gets. I need to have snow on the grond in the winter for my own personal well being . So I am just praying we get thru this inferno with some semblance of it left

I hate brown grass and mud/dirt/rotting leaves showing in the winter too. Snow that is getting dirty and crusty is ugly too, but its way less uglier than the former option.

This mild break next week will be annoying but it won't be a back breaker I don't think. It might not be all that damaging if its limited to a couple days in upper 40s to near 50 with relatively low dews. Its the 55F with 50F dewpoints with rain and fog in the warm sector of big lakes cutters that really do the most damage....or a moister airmass that keeps overnight lows in the 40s like we saw in Jan 2008. But that was a much much warmer airmass. We had like 36 hours of 850s at +12C and over 48h of 850s near +10C.

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